In Focus delivers deeper coverage of the political, cultural, and ideological issues shaping America.
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Focus → deliver → America
Published daily by senior writers and experts, these in-depth pieces go beyond the headlines to give readers the full picture.
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pieces → publish → picture
You can find our full list of In Focus pieces here.
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You → find → pieces
Republicans are going to get destroyed in this fall’s elections.
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Republicans → go → elections
Democrats will probably take the House of Representatives and the Senate, too.
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Democrats → take → Representatives
It would be a surprise if they didn’t also win most governor races while taking over state legislatures.
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they → win → legislatures
He has failed on his central promise — improving affordability — and he brought that problem on himself with slapdash tariffs and an ill-advised war against Iran.
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he → fail → Iran
Meanwhile, the Republican Party is becoming the party of corruption and immorality, with self-dealing, philandering, and perversion omnipresent among the party’s Senate candidates and in the Trump administration.
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dealing → become → administration
With more than six weeks until Election Day, plenty of details will change, but already we can see some contours of this coming tsunami.
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we → change → tsunami
Voters generally approved of Trump when his second term started.
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term → approve → Trump
They don’t anymore.
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They → do → ?
From 49% approval in January 2025, Trump has fallen steadily to 39% these days, according to Emerson’s polls.
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Trump → fall → polls
Meanwhile, the percentage of Americans disapproving of Trump’s performance has skyrocketed from 41% last year (just barely larger than the Democratic base) to 58%.
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percentage → disapprove → %
That means millions of Americans who voted for Trump in 2024, and who were neutral or positive on him in 2025, now say he’s blowing it.
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he → mean → it
His net approval has gone from positive 8 points to negative 19.
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approval → go → 19
All pollsters show similarly grim numbers for Trump.
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pollsters → show → Trump
Reuters/Ipsos’s September poll had Trump 27 points underwater, with 69% of independents disapproving and 25% approving.
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% → have → independents
Voters still trust Republicans more on immigration and crime, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, but they trust Democrats more on “cost of living,” which was the most important issue.
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which → trust → living
Emerson College’s pollsters ask voters in general whether they plan to vote Republican or Democratic for Congress.
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they → ask → Congress
Throughout 2025, the parties were basically tied.
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parties → tie → 2025
Since April, though, Democrats have led the generic poll by about 10 points.
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Democrats → lead → points
In September, Democrats posted their biggest lead of the cycle, 53% to 42% — and the trend seems to be in Dems’ favor.
The races
All this puts major wind in the sails of Democrats running for office everywhere and at all levels of government.
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this → post → government
Republican control of the U.S. Senate is in grave danger, but it shouldn’t be, considering the election map.
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it → consider → map
Republicans have a three-seat majority, and because they control the vice presidency, Democrats would need to gain four seats to take over the chamber.
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Democrats → have → chamber
Ten of the thirteen open seats are in states Trump won in 2024.
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Trump → win → 2024
Only one Republican incumbent (Susan Collins) is trying to defend in a state Trump lost, while Democrats have to defend seats in Georgia (Jon Ossoff) and Michigan (open), both of which Trump won.
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Trump → try → which
Nevertheless, the polls, betting markets, and forecasters all point towards a likely Democratic takeover.
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polls → point → takeover
The Cook Political Report, for instance, rates the GOP-held North Carolina seat as leaning Democratic, and puts five other GOP seats in the toss-up category, along with only two Democratic-held seats (New Hampshire and Michigan).
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Report → rat → seats
Even Kansas is within reach for Democrats, according to Cook.
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Kansas → accord → Cook
Nate Silver gives Democrats a 69% chance of taking over the Senate.
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Silver → give → Senate
Alaska is a tossup, and Republicans are slightly favored in Nebraska.
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Republicans → favor → Nebraska
Silver gives Democrats a 91% chance of taking over the House of Representatives.
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Silver → give → Representatives
Other models give Democrats the advantage, but by slimmer margins.
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models → give → margins
Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats 72% chance of taking the House, and a 54% chance of taking the Senate.
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HQ → give → Senate
The forecaster “50 Plus 1” puts the Dems’ House odds at 85% and Senate odds at 55%.
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forecaster → put → %
No major forecasters give the GOP even a 1-in-3 chance of holding the House or a statistically significant edge in the battle for the Senate.
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forecasters → give → Senate
The problems
What is dragging Republicans down?
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What → drag → Republicans
A recent focus group administered by the New York Times provided a peek into voters’ concerns.
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group → administer → concerns
When asked what issues Texans are facing nowadays, most of the answers were about affordability.
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most → ask → affordability
“I feel like right now the buying power of middle-class America is really shrinking,” said one Democrat.
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Democrat → feel → America
…and 27 more, not listed.
The Aporia
