After going 0-5 in Week 1, GPT finally picked a game correctly.
asserted
GPT → go → game
Actually, it picked two!
asserted
it → pick → two
But it still went under .500 and is now a dreadful 2-8 on the season.
asserted
it → go → season
I'm exactly .500 at 5-5, which isn't awesome, but looks fantastic next to GPT's putrid 20% win rate.
asserted
which → look → rate
It also makes me feel a lot better about backing the Steelers getting 3½ points against Cincinnati in Week 3, since AI is on the opposite side.
asserted
AI → make → side
The rules remain the same.
asserted
rules → remain → ?
ChatGPT and I each make our five best bets using the same set of odds, and no selection can be priced worse than -120.
asserted
selection → make → -120
Every wager is sized to win one unit, which means a bet at -110 risks 1.10 units to win one, while a bet at +110 risks 0.91 units to win one.
asserted
bet → size → one
Odds were captured Saturday, Sept. 26, at 6 p.m. ET.
asserted
Odds → capture → ET
Before we get to the Week 3 picks, let’s review last week.
asserted
’s → get → picks
The Browns rewarded our willingness to back them after an ugly opener by beating Tampa Bay outright, while the Panthers and Falcons comfortably stayed under the total with 37 combined points.
asserted
Panthers → reward → points
I'm going to whine about Jayden Daniels getting hurt, because that certainly didn't help our Commanders bet.
asserted
that → go → bet
Green Bay was fortunate to win at all, and the Chargers made me look really dumb for expecting a bounce-back performance.
asserted
me → win → performance
We leaned heavily on the idea that the betting market overreacted to Week 1.
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market → lean → Week
Week 2 reminded us that sometimes a team looks bad because it is bad.
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it → remind → us
We learned from those mistakes, and we're ready to get back on track in Week 3.
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we → learn → Week
After going 0-5 in Week 1, GPT improved by going 2-3 in Week 2.
asserted
GPT → go → Week
Both unders cashed easily, with the Steelers and Patriots combining for 23 points and the Vikings and Bears managing just 12.
asserted
Vikings → cash → 12
Jacksonville lost by seven, the Giants got blown out by 22 and Kansas City needed overtime to beat Indianapolis by three.
asserted
City → lose → three
This is what's known as a "plug your nose" bet.
asserted
what → know → bet
It doesn't feel great to back the Giants after they just lost quarterback Jaxson Dart for the rest of the regular season and Jameis Winston looked atrocious in his stead.
asserted
Winston → feel → stead
However, with a week preparing as the starter, I expect Winston to be better and the Giants to rally around their backup QB.
asserted
Giants → prepare → QB
Plus, I just don't think Tennessee is very good.
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Tennessee → think → ?
GPT’s analysis:
Getting the Giants below a field goal is the appeal, and Malik Nabers being cleared gives Jameis Winston his most important receiving option.
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cleared → get → option
My concern is trusting New York to create separation with a replacement quarterback on a short week.
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concern → trust → week
Brian Burns, Deonte Banks and Tyler Nubin are questionable, while Tennessee’s running game offers a way to keep this close.
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game → offer → this
I passed because the Giants’ defensive uncertainty outweighs the attractive number.
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uncertainty → pass → number
This is definitely a "fade the public" type bet.
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This → fade → public
The Steelers haven't looked good in either of their two games, despite being 1-1, and the Bengals look like legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
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Bengals → look → contenders
So, why are we backing Pittsburgh?
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we → back → Pittsburgh
I love getting 3½ points at home in a divisional matchup.
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I → love → matchup
With everyone expecting Cincinnati to roll Pittsburgh, I'll grab the points.
asserted
I → expect → points
GPT’s analysis:
The extra half-point is valuable in a matchup Pittsburgh’s defense could turn into a field-goal game.
uncertain
defense → turn → game
I’m backing Cincinnati because its improved defensive front faces a struggling Steelers offense, while Joey Porter Jr. and Jamel Dean are questionable against Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
asserted
Jr. → back → Burrow
Pittsburgh can cover without winning, but I trust Cincinnati’s paths to creating a margin more.
asserted
I → cover → margin
Honestly, the Vikings have been at their best with Kyler Murray not playing quarterback, and he's back to starting in Week 3.
asserted
he → play → Week
This just feels like the Vikings are a pretty fraudulent 2-0 and the Bucs are probably not quite as bad as their 0-2 record suggests.
uncertain
record → feel → ?
The lookahead line prior to Week 2 favored the Bucs, so I think we're getting a lot of value with Tampa as a home dog.
asserted
we → favor → dog
The Vikings have not consistently sustained offense, and Tampa Bay has left scoring opportunities unfinished.
asserted
Bay → sustain → opportunities
I also prefer the Buccaneers moneyline to taking just one point.
asserted
I → prefer → point
…and 58 more, not listed.
The Aporia
