Across 22 press conferences and 150,000 words, Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock has headed a revolution in how interest rates are set in this nation.
asserted
rates → head → nation
The person who is most central to Australians’ day-to-day economic fortunes stood up on February 6, 2024, to face her first press outing in charge of the central bank.
Since then, she has answered almost 600 questions while speaking directly to millions of borrowers, investors, business operators and people with savings.
asserted
she → stand → savings
At that press conference, the first by an RBA governor outside the turmoil of the COVID pandemic, she spent an hour warning that the bank was “not ruling in or out anything”, explained the damage caused by inflation and reflected on how her children had saved to pay for tickets to Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour of Australia.
asserted
children → spend → Australia
While Bullock’s predecessor, Philip Lowe, had done a handful of press conferences during the pandemic, the event on February 6, 2024, marked a critical turning point in how the Reserve Bank would explain interest rates, the economy and even the inflationary impact of major touring artists.
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Bank → do → artists
By most measures, Bullock – and the bank – affects the daily economic lives of Australians in more direct ways than Treasurer Jim Chalmers or his state counterparts.
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Bullock → affect → Chalmers
Each decision to cut, hike or hold rates has billions of dollars riding on it, the most visible being the potential change in millions of monthly mortgage payments.
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visible → cut → payments
But until the press conferences began, the bank’s communication could only be described as cryptic.
uncertain
communication → begin → ?
For instance, there were decades when the RBA did not even tell the public if official interest rates had been changed.
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rates → be → public
That had improved dramatically under a succession of governors, beginning with Bernie Fraser and then the significant steps taken by both Glenn Stevens and Lowe.
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That → improve → Stevens
But the independent review of the bank released in 2023 urged the RBA to take the next step – have the governor face a gaggle of journalists.
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governor → release → journalists
In less than three years, she has arguably answered more questions from the media than the past five governors put together.
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governors → answer → media
Ahead of another critical press conference at which she is likely to confirm another interest rate rise for the nation’s borrowers, an analysis of every word uttered by Bullock across her 22 press appearances shows just how her communication with the public has changed, albeit with one constant.
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communication → confirm → constant
The hold phase (2024)
Bullock chaired her first meeting as RBA governor in October 2023.
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Bullock → chair → October
A month later, the bank pushed the official cash rate to 4.35 per cent.
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bank → push → cent
It would not change until early 2025.
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It → change → 2025
Her first press conference marked not only the bank’s new way to communicate with the public but a year-long period in which economists and the media tried to understand Bullock and her view of inflation and the economy.
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economists → mark → inflation
Philip Lowe had talked often about the “narrow path” the bank was trying to negotiate through, and out of, the pandemic.
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bank → talk → pandemic
It was one of his defining analogies.
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It → define → analogies
But Bullock revealed her own key catchphrase early in that February press conference.
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Bullock → reveal → conference
“We are not ruling out what we might have to do next.
uncertain
we → rule → what
We’re not ruling in or out anything.”
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We → rule → anything
Bullock held eight press conferences during 2024.
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Bullock → hold → 2024
She used the term “not ruling in or out” 11 times in seven of those press grillings.
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She → use → grillings
That first occasion facing a room full of journalists also marked the initial utterance of an even more common refrain – that inflation is not good.
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inflation → face → refrain
Bullock has used a variation of the “inflation is bad” term on at least 21 occasions, or effectively every time she has conducted a press conference.
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she → use → conference
Usually “high inflation is bad for everyone” or “inflation hurts all Australians”.
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inflation → hurt → Australians
While serious in her discussion about the economy, Bullock has proven to have a sense of mischief.
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Bullock → prove → mischief
At that very first press conference, she was asked about services inflation.
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she → ask → inflation
Describing the concept of services as something “that you can’t drop on your foot”, she then went on to discuss whether Taylor Swift’s high-priced Eras Tour tickets were a sign of latent inflationary pressures.
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tickets → describe → pressures
“Clearly, for a lot of people, Taylor Swift is very important,” she said.
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she → say → people
It was in August 2024 that she suggested those who knew exactly what the RBA should do might be showing overconfidence.
uncertain
RBA → suggest → overconfidence
“I’ve read commentators with absolute certainty that we must lower interest rates …
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we → read → rates
I’ve also heard commentators with absolute certainty that we must raise interest rates now.
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we → hear → rates
I wish I had their certainty.”
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I → wish → certainty
The rate cut phase (2025)
At her first press conference in 2025, Bullock confirmed news welcomed by home borrowers, business owners and Anthony Albanese – official interest rates would be cut.
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rates → confirm → borrowers
The quarter percentage-point reduction was, the governor said, recognition that inflation pressures had eased and wages growth was moderating.
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growth → say → ?
But it came with a large caveat.
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it → come → caveat
“The board judges it’s time to reduce a little bit of that restrictiveness, but we cannot declare victory on inflation just yet.”
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we → judge → inflation
War, particularly Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, had been a key factor in the oil price surge that contributed to the interest rate rises of 2022 and 2023.
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that → contribute → 2022
But another type of war was about to upend everything.
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type → upend → everything
…and 43 more, not listed.
The Aporia
