THE age-old debate over the role of individuals in history continues.
asserted
debate → continue → history
Do leaders shape history or is history the product of underlying social and economic structures?
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history → shape → structures
Can leaders bring about change in society and determine national outcomes?
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leaders → bring → outcomes
Proponents of the ‘great man theory’ have argued that history is the biography of great leaders.
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history → argue → leaders
This has been contested by others who insist economic and social forces are decisive and impose constraints on what individuals can do.
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individuals → contest → what
But can individuals transcend structures in moments of crisis?
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individuals → transcend → crisis
A provocative new book joins this debate.
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book → join → debate
In Profits, Prophets, Coaches, and Kings: (When) do Leaders Make a Difference Jared Diamondexamines whether individual leadersalter the course of their societies.
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Leaders → make → societies
The study marks a break from the American author’s earlier books which earned the Pulitzer Prize winner much fame.
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which → mark → fame
But his bestselling 1997 book Guns, Germs, and Steel and other works also attracted criticism for geographic determinism and playing down human agency.
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book → attract → agency
His latest book reverses the lens.
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book → reverse → lens
Across politics, business and sports, it examines whether individual leaders play a decisive role in shaping the world around them, and under what conditions if they do.
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they → examine → them
He considers how the interplay between an exceptional individual and historical circumstances determines success or failure.
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interplay → consider → success
At the book’s outset, Diamond narrates the incident of March 1930 when Adolf Hitler’s car was hit by a huge trailer truck in which he survived.
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he → narrate → which
Three years later, Hitler became chancellor of Germany and unleashed the Holocaust and World War II, in which millions of people were killed.
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millions → become → people
He asks whether these horrific events would have happened if Hitler had died in the car crash.
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Hitler → ask → crash
Some will argue things would have turned out differently.
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things → argue → ?
Others would point to the humiliation inflicted on Germany by the Treaty of Versailles, by the hyperinflation it suffered and the fact that antisemitism was deeply embedded in the country well before Hitler’s rise.
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antisemitism → point → rise
That makes it hard to decide whether Hitler made a difference.
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Hitler → make → difference
This, Diamond says, exemplifies the question of whether leaders determine outcomes, for better or for worse.
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leaders → say → worse
The role individuals play in shaping history has always been a contested issue in an age-old debate.
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individuals → play → debate
He mentions three competing schools of thought in this debate.
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He → mention → debate
One sees exceptional and heroic leaders determining history.
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leaders → see → history
The opposite view is that leaders are constrained by circumstances and have little influence on events.
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leaders → constrain → events
An in-between view holds that individual leaders sometimes do and sometimes don’t make a difference.
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leaders → hold → difference
His book takes a middle ground in this debate.
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book → take → debate
For the author, the key question is under what conditions can leaders make a difference.
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leaders → make → difference
In his discussion of leaders’ impact on history, Diamond sets what he calls the Hamlet test.
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he → set → what
This refers to whether any contemporary person had comparable qualities to achieve a similar outcome as the individual being assessed.
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person → refer → individual
In Shakespeare’s case, his unique talent meant no other Elizabethan could have written Hamlet if Shakespeare hadn’t done so.
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Shakespeare → mean → Hamlet
He cites the example of independent Botswana’s first president as a political figure who passes the Hamlet test.
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who → cite → test
Seretse Khama’s policies made his country well-governed and not consumed by civil wars or diamond revenues being wasted on ostentatious projects.
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country → make → projects
Although he leveraged Botswana’s inherent advantages and his position as a tribal leader, his contributions to his country would not have happened under another founding president.
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contributions → leverage → president
No other figure had comparable skills.
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figure → have → skills
He was an effective leader at a particular place and time, and therefore made a difference.
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He → make → difference
Leaders however gifted, Diamond says, can be effective only in certain circumstances.
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Diamond → gift → circumstances
For example, Genghis Khan, who established the largest land empire in history, had exceptional qualities but was lucky enough to be born “at the start of the wettest decade in the last 2,000 years on the steppes of Central Asia”.
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who → establish → Asia
In other words, a military and administrative genius was helped crucially by climatic factors which had favourable economic, social and demographic consequences.
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which → help → consequences
Therefore, much turns on enabling conditions.
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much → turn → conditions
Diamond draws up a list of 22 modern leaders — familiar names — and asserts that historical figures may be forces for either good or bad.
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figures → draw → good
…and 21 more, not listed.
The Aporia
