For weeks, the streets of Serbia were teeming with young people rallying against the government.
asserted
streets → teem → government
At the height of the protests in March 2025, more than 100,000 took to the streets.
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100,000 → take → streets
The student movement had called for early elections for nearly two years, and President Aleksandar Vucic, who resigned on Sunday, finally heeded their call earlier this month.
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who → call → call
He announced snap parliamentary elections for October 25.
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He → announce → October
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Mladic → 4convicte → Serbia
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With the elections originally not due until December 2027, the early vote is seen as an attempt by governing populists to cling to power despite widespread discontent.
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vote → set → discontent
Vucic is vying for the prime minister’s post, a role he has held before, appearing to yield to protesters’ demands not out of goodwill but in the hopes of ushering in a result that keeps him in office, analysts say.
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analysts → vie → office
But experts warn that elections will hardly solve the underlying political tensions gripping the country, triggered after 16 people were killed in 2024 when a concrete canopy collapsed at a railway station.
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canopy → warn → station
Student protesters blamed the disaster on government negligence and alleged corruption.
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protesters → blame → negligence
The move “is essentially about reducing political risk”, Viktor Stamenkovic, a researcher at Belgrade’s Institute for Political Studies, told Al Jazeera.
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Stamenkovic → reduce → Jazeera
“Given the circumstances, the ruling camp is choosing the electoral sequence it considers least dangerous,” he said, referring to Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).
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he → give → Party
Saving his skin: Elections a cling to power
Vucic could stall no more – both the presidential and parliamentary vote would have had to be held next year.
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vote → save → power
“Vucic has, for some time, been aware that further delay is unlikely to work in his favour,” Stamenkovic said.
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Stamenkovic → work → favour
Vucic’s presidential term expires before the mandate of the current parliament, said Stamenkovic.
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Stamenkovic → expire → parliament
Serbia’s recent political history explains the order of the elections – the parliamentary before the presidential, the analyst added.
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analyst → explain → presidential
Presidential elections can fundamentally alter the parliamentary dynamics that follow – which is how Vucic’s party came to power, Stamenkovic explained.
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Stamenkovic → alter → power
Vucic cannot run for a third term under Serbia’s constitution, and no other SNS figure is as popular as him.
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figure → run → him
“In 2012, the presidential victory of the SNS candidate Tomislav Nikolic changed the political momentum so dramatically that the bloc, which had previously appeared capable of forming a parliamentary majority, was ultimately unable to do so,” said Stamenkovic.
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Stamenkovic → change → majority
“The presidential result altered the calculations of the parliamentary parties and paved the way for a government led by SNS.”
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result → alter → SNS
Vucic, therefore, has good reason to fear the same scenario being repeated.
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scenario → have → reason
Vucic has built a personalised political system centred on himself rather than his party or any successor, said Stamenkovic.
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Stamenkovic → build → himself
“He therefore has to find a way of transferring his own political strength from the presidency into the parliamentary arena … effectively staking his political future on the parliamentary election.”
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He → have → election
For Milica Vojinovic, an investigative reporter at the Serbian outlet KRIK, the goal of the governing party is to stay in power at any cost.
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goal → govern → cost
“They [want to] continue their corruption projects, which usually means finding new ways and public procurements through which they can take money… [including from] public budgets,” Vojinovic told Al Jazeera.
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Vojinovic → want → Jazeera
She cited irregularities in past elections, such as vote buying by the SNS, documented by election observers and human rights organisations, and feared that the next elections will see an “escalation of these tactics, now that the student movement is actually threatening to win the election and take power from Vucic’s party”.
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movement → cite → party
The vote will not resolve country’s discord
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vote → resolve → discord
Since 2024, the governing party has lost a sense of political legitimacy, said Stamenkovic.
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Stamenkovic → govern → legitimacy
“Even if – and this is a big if – SNS wins another parliamentary majority, it is difficult to envisage a return to a situation in which it can govern normally and claim the kind of broad social legitimacy it once enjoyed,” he said.
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he → win → legitimacy
“Virtually all polling shows that a majority of the country believes Serbia is heading in the wrong direction and that the time has come for change.”
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time → show → change
Mass demonstrations have not taken place in Serbia for some time, as the student movement has shifted from organising large rallies to election campaigning.
The youth movement recently submitted their election list to state election authorities after a jubilant march through the capital of Belgrade, formally entering the race.
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movement → take → race
Polls show that this vote could bring representatives of the student movement into parliament and state institutions, said the Serbia-based Center for Research, Transparency and Accountability (CRTA).
uncertain
Center → show → Research
[They] will definitely improve the legitimacy of the parliament as the representative body,” the group said.
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group → improve → body
Transparency and anticorruption are priorities for most citizens, with the social and political reality in the country having changed in the two years since the railway station incident, the organisation added.
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organisation → change → incident
Vojinovic, however, predicted that if Vucic’s party continues to hold power, “we are to expect the most repressive measures seen so far against everyone who has been criticising, or in any way opposing, the government”.
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who → predict → government
Criminal cases have already been brought against some activists in the student movement, as well as a political analyst, she said.
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she → bring → movement
According to Human Rights Watch, foreign agent laws, first introduced by Russia and seen being picked up by other nations, have been used to brand independent civil society, media and other dissenting voices as illegitimate and acting on behalf of foreign interests.
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laws → accord → interests
Such a law was proposed in Serbia in 2024.
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law → propose → 2024
“Recent smear campaigns against my newsroom, as well as other independent media outlets and NGOs, lead us to believe that they may be a precursor to the introduction of a ‘foreign agents law’ in the near future, should Vucic’s party remain in power,” Vojinovic added.
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Vojinovic → lead → power
EU rift no matter
Meanwhile, Serbia is no closer to joining the European Union, but that is not a real priority for Vucic, the experts said.
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experts → join → Vucic
“It is widely understood that Serbia cannot make meaningful progress towards EU membership under the current system of government,” said Stamenkovic.
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Stamenkovic → understand → government
…and 6 more, not listed.
The Aporia
