- Published
In the early 2000s, Premier League defences tried to make the pitch as small as possible, giving their opposition less space to score in.
asserted
pitch → publish → space
Coaches therefore encouraged their attackers to play quickly, taking advantage of open space that saw them face fewer defenders.
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them → encourage → defenders
Logically, this made total sense.
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this → make → sense
It was Pep Guardiola's influence that, in part, flipped this logic on its head over the last decade.
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that → flip → decade
His Manchester City sides looked to force teams back into a compact defence, a challenge that in theory should be harder to break down.
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that → look → theory
The counter logic was that they were forcing opponents to give them a familiar challenge they were prepared for.
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they → force → challenge
City's defenders also had big spaces to cover, often standing at the halfway line.
But for Guardiola, those spaces were less worrying if the ball stayed near the opposition's goal for as long as possible.
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ball → have → goal
After all, if you have the ball, the opposition cannot score.
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opposition → have → ball
So why now are teams that dominate the ball dropping points?
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that → dominate → points
Across this season's opening 50 Premier League matches, teams recording at least 60% possession have won only 36.4% of those games, while in 2023-24, the figure was 53.5%.
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figure → open → 2023
Does this suggest possession football is on the way out?
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football → suggest → way
Are teams winning because of their low possession, or having less possession because they have taken the lead early?
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they → win → lead
Why less might be more in 2026
Let's use Xabi Alonso's Chelsea as a case study.
uncertain
's → let → study
They won their opening games against Fulham and Brighton - 3-2 and 4-3 respectively - with the minority of possession, then drew 2-2 with Hull and lost 3-0 to Brentford despite having considerably more of the ball.
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They → win → ball
Against Brighton, Chelsea's 25.6% possession and 146 successful passes were their lowest recorded figures in a Premier League match, with records beginning in 2003-04.
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records → record → 2003
And yet, the Blues scored four goals.
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Blues → score → goals
For three of them, accelerating play from throw-ins and counter-attacks allowed their direct attackers to find space against fewer defenders.
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attackers → accelerate → defenders
This dynamic can partly be explained by Fabian Hurzeler's Brighton wanting to dominate the ball - with only Manchester City averaging more possession than the Seagulls this season - which played into Chelsea's hands.
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which → explain → hands
Joao Pedro, Cole Palmer, Pedro Neto and Morgan Rogers boast skillsets suited to transition-heavy football, and the low possession against Brighton helped them play to their strengths.
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them → boast → strengths
Issue of philosophy for top teams
Counter-attacking comes with a stigma.
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Issue → come → stigma
It is more accepted underdogs like newly promoted Hull will play this way.
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underdogs → accept → Hull
This makes a low-possession approach harder to sell long term, even if the players might look better conceding possession.
And that disconnect between players' skillsets and tactics could help explain some dropped points.
uncertain
disconnect → make → points
Alongside Chelsea, Manchester United have also suffered in this way.
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United → suffer → way
Under Michael Carrick, they have averaged 1.5 points per game with more than 50% possession.
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they → average → possession
With less, that rises to 2.6.
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that → rise → 2.6
Clubs without the same expectation, like Brentford, Leeds and Hull, can concede possession and have built squads for that style.
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Clubs → concede → style
With impressive box defenders, dangerous counter-attackers and set-piece specialists, their tactics can align with their players' strengths, helping them compete against more less aligned opponents, irrespective of their wealth gap.
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them → align → gap
How tactical landscape has changed things
In recent seasons, there has been a rise in man-to-man pressure that has made building out from the back challenging.
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building → change → back
Teams, as a result, have looked to play long over the press or past its first line into space for players to drive with the ball - think the likes of City's Nico O'Reilly or Arsenal's Declan Rice.
Both of these have been great solutions to the initial problem, but it does mean that teams full of physical athletes, focused on bringing down long passes or driving with the ball over distance, could be less suited to the intricate play required to unlock stubborn defences - a situation commonly faced by teams who have more of the ball.
uncertain
who → look → ball
To dominate in 2026 likely requires a squad that has enough solutions in small spaces as well as big ones.
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that → dominate → spaces
Opponents have used man-to-man defending closer to goal too, making it harder to find the unmarked player, a key attacking principle used in Guardiola's positional play.
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it → use → play
With players marked, attacks can then depend on winning one-against-one situations, requiring individual quality often in the form of dribbling.
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attacks → mark → dribbling
Given the way teams have been built over the last few years, certain sides may lack this type of problem solver.
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sides → give → solver
Success of style of play depends on players
It is important to note possession is an average across a match, which can hide how the scoreline changes a team's approach.
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scoreline → depend → approach
Chelsea scored within seven minutes in each of their opening four league games after which opponents pushed forward looking for a goal.
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opponents → score → goal
The Blues dropped deeper, defending their lead and attacking the space left behind.
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Blues → drop → space
Across their opening five matches, Chelsea averaged 51.4% possession when level, 34.5% when ahead and 67.2% when behind - highlighting how much their possession has varied with the score.
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possession → average → score
Interestingly, protecting a lead created favourable opportunities for Chelsea's attackers to play intuitively, carry the ball and attack space.
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attackers → protect → space
When chasing a goal, they had more possession but appeared to lack solutions against compact defences.
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they → chase → defences
Arsenal show the value of being able to do both parts well when needed.
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Arsenal → show → parts
…and 13 more, not listed.
The Aporia
