Suppose that a Palestinian state comes into existence.
asserted
state → suppose → existence
Suppose further that it is democratic, internationally recognized, and sovereign over the West Bank and Gaza.
asserted
it → suppose → Bank
Which political movement would most likely form its government?
asserted
movement → form → government
What would such a government do?
asserted
government → do → What
If the future resembled the past, it could launch atrocities comparable to Oct. 7, 2023.
uncertain
it → resemble → Oct.
Israel would then respond militarily, potentially destroying the new Palestinian state to a degree far beyond the destruction inflicted on Gaza after the original attack.
asserted
Israel → respond → attack
This prediction cannot be known with certainty.
asserted
prediction → know → certainty
But political judgments can be based on historical experience.
asserted
judgments → base → experience
The record of Gaza after Israel’s withdrawal in 2005 offers a warning about what can happen when territorial sovereignty is placed in the hands of an armed movement committed to Israel’s destruction.
asserted
sovereignty → offer → destruction
In 2005, Israel compelled all of its Jewish citizens to leave Gaza.
asserted
Israel → compel → Gaza
From 2005 to 2007, a civil war took place between Fatah and Hamas.
asserted
war → take → Fatah
Hamas eventually won and has ruled Gaza almost continuously ever since.
asserted
Hamas → win → Gaza
Hamas controlled the territory’s internal government, security services, and political institutions.
asserted
Hamas → control → government
Israel retained control over certain external matters, including borders, because Hamas and other armed groups were launching rockets and suicide bombings against Israel.
asserted
Hamas → retain → Israel
Had Gaza’s leaders acted peacefully, the territory might have developed into a prosperous and open commercial center.
uncertain
territory → act → center
It could have become something resembling the Hong Kong of the Middle East: a small, densely populated coastal territory linked to regional and international markets.
uncertain
It → become → markets
Instead, Hamas devoted itself to armed conflict.
asserted
Hamas → devote → conflict
Gaza became a base for rocket attacks, weapons production, tunnel construction, and the preparation of future assaults against Israel.
asserted
Gaza → become → Israel
The territory’s political leadership chose confrontation over institution-building.
asserted
leadership → choose → building
The lesson is not that Palestinians are incapable of governing themselves.
asserted
Palestinians → govern → themselves
It is that sovereignty does not automatically produce liberal institutions, economic development, or peace.
asserted
sovereignty → produce → institutions
A government must choose to establish them.
asserted
government → choose → them
The political record
Hamas’s political program does not resemble that of a liberal democratic party.
asserted
program → resemble → party
Its original charter called for Israel’s destruction and framed the conflict in explicitly religious terms.
asserted
charter → call → terms
Its 2017 political document modified some of the language but did not abandon armed struggle or its commitment to an Islamic political order.
asserted
document → modify → order
The Palestinian Authority offers no reassuring alternative.
asserted
Authority → offer → alternative
Mahmoud Abbas was elected in January 2005 to a four-year presidential term and has remained in office for more than two decades.
asserted
Abbas → elect → decades
The Palestinian legislature has been dissolved, and the PA governs the West Bank without a functioning elected parliament.
asserted
PA → dissolve → parliament
The PA’s record demonstrates how quickly formal legal protections can become meaningless.
asserted
protections → demonstrate → ?
The 2017 Cybercrime Law criminalized online criticism of the leadership.
asserted
Law → criminalize → leadership
In 2021, PA security forces beat activist Nizar Banat to death after he criticized official corruption.
asserted
he → beat → corruption
The accused officers have still not been tried.
asserted
officers → accuse → ?
These facts matter because a future Palestinian state would likely inherit political institutions, security structures, and party organizations from Hamas and Fatah.
asserted
state → matter → Hamas
Creating a new flag and declaring independence would not erase the habits of authoritarian government already embedded in those movements.
asserted
Creating → create → movements
Supporters of Palestinian statehood often speak as if democracy alone would solve the problem.
asserted
democracy → speak → problem
But elections do not guarantee freedom.
asserted
elections → guarantee → freedom
A majority can elect leaders who suppress dissent, eliminate opposition, control the press, and use violence against minorities.
asserted
who → elect → minorities
A future Palestinian state would require far more than elections.
asserted
state → require → elections
It would need an independent judiciary, a functioning legislature, security forces subject to civilian law, protection for journalists and political opponents, freedom of religion, safeguards for private property, and a peaceful mechanism for transferring power.
asserted
It → need → power
It would also have to prevent armed factions from maintaining independent military power.
asserted
It → have → power
…and 27 more, not listed.
The Aporia
