Log in
asserted
Log → log → ?
The Senate will have its final week of session this week before it breaks.
asserted
it → have → session
The House already left and canceled its final two weeks of votes in September.
asserted
House → leave → September
Every midterm has a certain rhythm.
asserted
midterm → have → rhythm
Usually, the president’s party loses at least one chamber of Congress.
asserted
party → lose → Congress
Some governorships and state legislatures flip.
asserted
governorships → flip → ?
The war in Iran and the subsequent cost of living crisis sent President Donald Trump’s approval rating nosediving.
asserted
rating → send → living
He is bleeding support among not just the Hispanic voters and young people who broke for him in 2024, but also white voters without college degrees.
asserted
who → bleed → degrees
This has led to Democrats being competitive in places where they otherwise wouldn’t — or flat-out running away with races.
asserted
they → lead → races
In North Carolina, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper led some polls by as much as double digits, and in Texas, Trump’s preferred candidate for Senate, Ken Paxton, is neck-and-neck with Democrat James Talarico.
asserted
candidate → lead → Talarico
But every once in a while, a president can be so unpopular that some surprise seats can flip.
asserted
seats → flip → while
In 2010, Republican Scott Brown won a special election in Massachusetts to win the late Ted Kennedy’s old seat.
asserted
Brown → win → seat
In 2018, Democrats flipped a Senate seat in Arizona and also flipped a House seat in Oklahoma’s fifth district.
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Democrats → flip → district
Here are some races that might leave jaws dropped by election night.
uncertain
that → leave → night
The Sunshine State has become the locus of the MAGA movement.
asserted
State → become → movement
Trump decamped from New York to Mar-a-Lago in his first presidency to make it is his primary residence.
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it → decamp → presidency
His endorsement of Gov. Ron DeSantis in 2018 meant the state largely stayed open and it earned the reputation as the “free state of Florida.”
asserted
it → mean → Florida
Trump even made significant gains with the state’s Latino population.
asserted
Trump → make → population
But that’s changing now.
asserted
that → change → ?
The cost of living has skyrocketed in Florida and Trump’s immigration policies even have normally more conservative Cuban-American Republicans warning Trump that he’s gone too far.
asserted
he → skyrocket → Trump
Trump endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds to be the Republican nominee, but he suffered a bruising and frankly racist primary race.
asserted
he → endorse → race
Now, Donalds has scrubbed many of the mentions of Trump from his website in a bid to pick up votes.
asserted
Donalds → scrub → votes
Donalds has also faced pushback for his vocal support for data centers, which many voters in both parties dislike.
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voters → face → parties
Donalds is running against former Rep. David Jolly, who switched parties and is now running as a Democrat.
asserted
who → run → Democrat
Florida is still an uphill climb for Democrats given the inward migration of conservative voters to the state.
asserted
Florida → give → state
But if Donalds underperforms or outright loses parts of North Florida, expect a long night.
asserted
Donalds → underperform → night
If Jolly somehow wins, expect a painful night for Republicans.
asserted
Jolly → win → Republicans
Rep. Andy Barr is vacating Kentucky’s 6th and will almost certainly win Sen. Mitch McConnell’s seat.
asserted
Barr → vacate → seat
The district voted for Trump by 15 points in 2024.
asserted
district → vote → 2024
Democrat Amy McGrath tried and failed to beat Barr in 2018, but crashed and burned.
asserted
McGrath → try → 2018
But even in this district, Trump is proving unpopular.
asserted
Trump → prove → district
NBC News reported that the Republican nominee Ralph Alvarado has removed references to Trump on his campaign website.
asserted
nominee → report → website
Zach Dembo is putting up a strong performance.
asserted
Dembo → put → performance
To give an example of how optimistic Democrats are about the 6th, AdImpact showed that in 2024, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent zero dollars in the general election there.
asserted
Committee → give → election
Now the DCCC has reserved $683,000 in ad spending there.
asserted
DCCC → reserve → spending
But if they somehow flip this, they will have an absolute tsunami of a night.
asserted
they → flip → night
If Republicans hold it, the worst-case scenario will be avoided.
asserted
scenario → hold → it
Most races will swing to the left.
asserted
races → swing → left
But there’s one where Democrats might in actual trouble.
uncertain
Democrats → ’ → trouble
In Oregon, Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek narrowly beat Republican Christine Drazan by 3.4 points, with an independent siphoning off about 8.6 percent of the vote.
asserted
independent → beat → vote
…and 41 more, not listed.
The Aporia
