- Published
Snipers shatter the silence of the Australian bush.
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Snipers → publish → bush
Then the missiles hit, the smoke rising in the distance.
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smoke → hit → distance
The buzz of drones starts up, soon to be drowned out by helicopters flying overhead.
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buzz → start → helicopters
Every piece of hardware is being deployed, no expense spared.
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expense → deploy → hardware
But this is no war zone – the last time Townsville saw conflict was during World War Two.
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Townsville → see → War
We live in a volatile world," says Australian Army Brigadier Ben McLennan.
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McLennan → live → world
"Training an army to be prepared to fight a war that is potentially more likely than it has been previously, [is] very important."
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it → train → war
War is no longer an abstract concept for Australians who often feel removed from the problems facing other parts of the world.
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who → feel → world
Thousands of miles from active conflict, the country, like everywhere else, is facing the knock-on effects of Iran and Ukraine such as higher fuel prices and rising inflation.
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country → face → prices
With China's military capabilities also on the rise and its increasing influence in the Pacific, there's also more concern about the threat it represents.
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it → increase → threat
Australia has responded by deepening its relationship with the US, its security ally and China's rival superpower.
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Australia → respond → US
But that also puts Australia in a tricky position - for China's rise has also given Australia its biggest trading partner.
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rise → put → partner
It's a paradox that most people are well aware of - which is probably why we've been invited to report on what Australia is doing to protect itself but nobody is willing to say whom they're preparing to fight.
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they → invite → whom
"We're rehearsing for a war - the worst type of war - a World War Two-like war, a World War One-type war, a total war," says Brigadier McLennan, preferring to remain vague when asked who the enemy is.
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enemy → rehearse → war
Binding tighter to the US
The war scenario playing out before us is part of a major joint exercise known as "Southern Jackaroo" - a training programme involving the Australian, American and Japanese armed forces aimed at strengthening defence co-operation across the Indo-Pacific.
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scenario → bind → Pacific
"We like to call ourselves America's 911 response force," US Marine Kevin Hicks says.
And in terms of numbers, they are more prepared than ever.
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they → like → numbers
In 2012, just 200 US Marines were deployed to Australia for an annual six-month deployment.
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Marines → deploy → deployment
Today, that figure has risen to around 2,500.
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figure → rise → 2,500
A quick read of Australia's 2026 National Defence Strategy gives you an easy answer as to why these numbers are growing.
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numbers → give → answer
"Intense competition between major powers – principally the United States and China – will be an enduring feature of our strategic environment," it said.
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it → endure → environment
"China continues to undertake the largest military build-up in the world today, without the transparency or strategic reassurance the region expects."
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region → continue → transparency
The military tie-ups aren't just being seen in terms of troops but in bases too - most obviously in the north of the country such as RAAF Tindal air base in the Northern Territory which has been upgraded to support long-range American B52 bombers.
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which → see → bombers
But the security partnership between the US, the UK and Australia - Aukus - arming Australia with nuclear submarines, is arguably the biggest example of deepening ties.
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partnership → arm → ties
The Australian approach differs from that of its fellow middle powers.
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approach → differ → powers
While Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney has talked about middle powers reorganising their priorities in light of an increasingly unreliable US, Australia seems to be intent on tying itself ever closer.
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Australia → talk → itself
But that comes as Australians themselves increasingly doubt their relationship with the US.
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Australians → come → US
"Only 31% of Australians trust the United States to act responsibly in the world, and a mere 28% of Australians trust China to do the same," says Charles Lyons-Jones, a research fellow at the Lowy Institute, citing their annual poll.
"
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Jones → trust → poll
Those are striking findings when you consider the level of trust that the Australian government has with the United States.
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government → consider → States
While Australia's alliance with the US is changing, so too is its relationship with China.
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relationship → change → China
Armed forces might be prepping for a potential military conflict but the fact remains China is Australia's most important economic partner.
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China → preppe → conflict
Australia and China have had diplomatic relations since 1972 but it was only in the early 2010s that China became Australia's biggest trading partner, hungry for all the commodities it had to offer.
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it → have → commodities
Australia opened up its economy and encouraged business and trade, Chinese President Xi Jinping was invited to address parliament.
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Jinping → open → parliament
And it culminated in the signing of a free trade agreement in 2015.
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it → culminate → 2015
The golden era didn't last long though.
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era → last → ?
When Australia suggested an investigation into the origins of Covid in 2020, China objected to this line of questioning and retaliated with tariffs.
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China → suggest → tariffs
And then in 2021, Australia became the first nation to perform a U-turn on China's Belt and Road Initiative - its massive global infrastructure plan - when they cancelled the state of Victoria's agreement with the Chinese government three years after signing up.
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they → become → government
A number of Australians have also been detained in China, including journalist Cheng Lei, who was released in 2023 after more than three years.
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who → detain → years
Relations have improved in recent years under the Labor government of Anthony Albanese, but it's not without challenges.
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it → improve → challenges
In June this year for example, China slapped 55% tariffs on beef to protect its own domestic market - despite the free trade agreement.
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China → slap → agreement
Even with these hiccups, this year's Lowy Institute Poll found that a majority of Australians (61%) saw China more as an economic partner than a security threat.
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China → find → threat
…and 11 more, not listed.
The Aporia
