PAKISTAN can’t achieve sustained economic growth by treating security as a separate problem for the security apparatus to handle while economists focus on investment, exports, productivity and fiscal reform.
asserted
economists → achieve → investment
Insecurity destroys the very conditions on which economic development depends, while development strengthens the foundations of security.
asserted
development → destroy → security
Our crisis makes this nexus impossible to ignore.
asserted
nexus → make → ?
For decades, discussions on investment, production, growth, and development have largely focused on economic policies while underestimating the non-economic environment in which they operate.
asserted
they → focus → which
Yet, security of life and property, political stability, rule of law, judicial independence, federal-provincial coordination, accountability, and regional peace directly affect economic outcomes.
asserted
security → affect → outcomes
Unless these improve, returns from economic reforms will remain below potential.
asserted
returns → improve → potential
Increasing militancy and Pakistan’s top position on the Global Terrorism Index 2026 are damaging lives and economic prospects.
asserted
militancy → increase → lives
The recent attack on a police compound in Kohat, in which 37 people, including military personnel, were killed, received international coverage.
asserted
people → include → coverage
Foreign business people and executives reportedly cancelled planned visits, while travel advisories issued by several governments can discourage their nationals from visiting Pakistan.
uncertain
advisories → cancel → Pakistan
In 2025, TTP attacks in KP and BLA strikes in Balochistan caused hundreds of casualties among security personnel.
asserted
attacks → cause → personnel
The past decade’s trend shows that terrorism is no longer episodic.
asserted
terrorism → show → ?
The origins of the TTP challenge go back several decades.
asserted
origins → go → challenge
Pakistan’s decision in the 1980s to align with the US in opposing the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan had consequences beyond the immediate strategic goal.
asserted
decision → align → goal
The proliferation of arms and drugs, sectarian violence, growth of militant groups and the spread of extremist ideologies created a social and institutional environment that facilitated terrorism in Pakistan.
asserted
that → create → Pakistan
After the Soviets left Afghanistan, Pakistan became involved in efforts to shape a political settlement among Afghan factions.
asserted
Pakistan → leave → factions
The failure of power-sharing arrangements and the ensuing civil war led to the emergence of the Taliban, who captured Kabul in 1996.
asserted
who → share → 1996
Pakistan supported their regime.
asserted
Pakistan → support → regime
But 9/11 fundamentally altered the situation.
asserted
9/11 → alter → situation
Pakistan joined the global campaign against terrorism, itself becoming a major target.
asserted
itself → join → terrorism
When the US decided to leave Afghanistan, Pakistan played an important role in the Doha process.
asserted
Pakistan → decide → process
The Ashraf Ghani government’s collapse in 2021 and the Taliban’s return led to expectations that cross-border terrorism would decline.
asserted
terrorism → lead → expectations
Instead, the TTP, now equipped with modern weapons left behind by Nato forces, intensified their attacks.
asserted
TTP → equip → attacks
The challenge is to build security through development, and development through security.
asserted
challenge → build → security
Diplomatic efforts involving China, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye have not produced a durable solution.
asserted
efforts → involve → solution
Insecurity along the western frontier has disrupted bilateral trade, imposing costs on manufacturers, traders and transport operators, especially in KP and Balochistan.
asserted
Insecurity → disrupt → KP
Security and commerce are now directly linked.
asserted
Security → link → ?
Balochistan poses a different but equally serious challenge.
asserted
Balochistan → pose → challenge
It has seen a sharp escalation in asymmetric warfare and insurgency.
asserted
It → see → warfare
Highways, railways, bridges, gas pipelines, electricity transmission lines, and other infrastructure have been targeted.
asserted
Highways → target → ?
Mine workers, labourers from other provinces and government officials have been attacked or abducted.
asserted
workers → attack → provinces
In places, the state’s administrative presence and writ have been weakened.
asserted
presence → weaken → places
Chinese nationals and companies in Pakistan need extensive security.
asserted
nationals → need → security
Attacks on Chinese citizens in Karachi, Dasu and elsewhere have led to concerns in Beijing and slowed some CPEC-related activities.
asserted
Attacks → lead → activities
Gwadar’s industrial potential remains largely unrealised, partly because Chinese companies are reluctant to deploy personnel in insecure conditions.
asserted
companies → remain → conditions
An industrial zone won’t flourish when investors can’t operate confidently.
asserted
investors → flourish → ?
Security operations alone can’t resolve Balochistan’s problem.
asserted
operations → resolve → problem
Kinetic action is necessary against militants but must be accompanied by development.
asserted
action → accompany → development
Balochistan suffers from serious deficits in education, health, clean water, infrastructure, employment and private investment.
asserted
Balochistan → suffer → education
When economic opportunities are few, grievances become a source of recruitment for insurgent groups.
asserted
grievances → become → groups
So the province needs not just security spending but also a development strategy to create jobs, boost local institutions, and ensure communities see tangible benefits from Balochistan’s natural resources and strategic location.
asserted
communities → need → resources
…and 19 more, not listed.
The Aporia
