THE SENATE SEAT MOST LIKELY TO FLIP.
asserted
SEAT → flip → ?
When strategists on both sides look at the 2026 Senate map, the state at the top of the list of those most likely to switch parties is North Carolina, where Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring, and former Gov. Roy Cooper has a significant lead in the race to replace him.
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Cooper → look → him
In the RealClearPolitics average of polls at this moment, Cooper has an 8-point lead over Republican Michael Whatley, a former chairman of the state GOP.
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Cooper → have → GOP
Going back to March, his solid and steady lead has never been smaller than 6.5 points or larger than 8.5 points.
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lead → go → points
A new poll done for the American Association of Retired Persons by Tony Fabrizio — best known as President Donald Trump’s pollster — and Democratic pollster John Anzalone suggests Republicans are in even more trouble than it earlier appeared.
uncertain
it → do → trouble
Cooper has an 11-point lead, 53% to 42%, in the new survey.
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Cooper → have → survey
Much of the answer lies in fundamentals.
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Much → lie → fundamentals
It’s a disappointing situation for a president who won North Carolina three times, each time with a slightly larger percentage of the vote and a larger raw vote total.
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who → ’ → vote
In 2016, Trump won North Carolina with 49.83% of the vote and 2,362,631 votes.
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Trump → win → vote
Since taking office, though, Trump’s job approval has fallen steadily.
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approval → take → office
It fell to 42% in March, 41% in April, 39% in September, 35% in March 2026, and 31% this month — even lower than the AARP poll.
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It → fall → poll
The cost of living is the voters’ top issue, and they especially blame Trump for the increase in gas and diesel prices that occurred after the start of the Iran war seven months ago.
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that → blame → war
Just as they do nationwide, a majority of voters now say they trust Democrats more than Republicans to handle the cost of living.
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they → nationwide → living
On Iran, just 31% of respondents in the Elon University poll said they support the war, versus 52% who oppose and 18% who said they were unsure.
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they → say → %
Only 60% of Republicans support the war, while just 10% of Democrats and 27% of independents support it.
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% → support → it
Add to all this the fact that Cooper, who has won six statewide elections, is far better known than Whatley, who has not won any.
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who → add → any
Cooper also has significantly higher favorable numbers.
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Cooper → have → numbers
At the start of the campaign, a lot of North Carolinians had no idea who Whatley was, and
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Whatley → have → idea
since then, attacks from Democrats have helped keep his favorable rating low.
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attacks → help → rating
The current situation could send long-term trends in North Carolina in a new direction.
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situation → send → direction
The state has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008 (Kay Hagan, who served one term), and only two since 1998 (Hagan and John Edwards, who also served one term).
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who → elect → term
Now, when Republicans and Democrats consider the balance of the Senate, North Carolina is the first of the net four seats Democrats would need to win to take control of the Senate.
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Democrats → consider → Senate
On Sunday, political analyst Charlie Cook said, “A year ago, it wasn’t realistic to think that the Senate might flip, but now, it’s very realistic.”
uncertain
it → say → Sunday
North Carolina, he said, is the “open seat [that] goes first.”
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that → say → ?
The Aporia
