“I have a big decision to make.
asserted
I → have → decision
Will a deal be made with Iran that lets them rebuild and create a far greater country than it ever was before?
asserted
it → make → country
Or do I annihilate the Islamic Republic?
asserted
I → annihilate → Republic
Do I drive them into hell with no chance of survival and no hope of future greatness?”
asserted
I → drive → greatness
“I believe we’ll make a deal right after the [midterm] election because it doesn’t make sense for them not to,” he added.
asserted
he → believe → sense
In the speech, in which Mr. Trump vigorously defended his performance as the President of the U.S., there were 10 references to Iran’s nuclear programme, which he claimed the U.S. had obliterated after its June 2025 bombing.
asserted
U.S. → defend → bombing
“I will never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon,” he said.
asserted
he → allow → weapon
Iran has an advanced nuclear programme but has repeatedly said that it was not seeking to build nuclear weapons.
asserted
it → have → weapons
Mr. Trump’s speech signalled a change in the approach of the administration towards the Iran conflict.
asserted
speech → signal → conflict
In June, when the U.S. signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran, Washington agreed to make concessions in return for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while the nuclear talks were pushed to the back burner.
asserted
talks → sign → burner
But now, as the stalemate continues, the U.S. seeks to bring the nuclear file back into the negotiations.
asserted
U.S. → continue → negotiations
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi were also in New York to attend the UNGA.
asserted
Pezeshkian → attend → UNGA
On the sidelines of the assembly, Mr. Araghchi held indirect talks with U.S. officials, seeking to find a way out of the current impasse.
asserted
Araghchi → hold → impasse
Tehran submitted a seven-point proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in return for the U.S. lifting its naval blockade on Iranian ports, issuing sanctions waivers and releasing Iran’s frozen funds.
asserted
U.S. → submit → funds
In effect, Iran wants the U.S. to return to the June 17 MoU.
asserted
U.S. → want → MoU.
While Iran’s demands remained unchanged, it offered to fast-track the timeline.
asserted
it → remain → timeline
If the MoU had promised to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in 30 days, Iran now promises to reopen the waterway, which it blockaded in the initial days of the war, in seven days.
asserted
it → promise → days
But Mr. Trump said he rejected the Iranian offer.
asserted
he → say → offer
Iran, according to Omani Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad, was ready to make concessions on its nuclear programme on February 27 to avoid war.
uncertain
Iran → accord → war
But Mr. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chose not to take the deal and started bombing Iran on February 28, killing its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
asserted
Trump → choose → Leader
The war appears to have hardened Iran’s position on the nuclear question.
asserted
war → appear → question
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas moved before the war, provided additional leverage to Tehran.
asserted
fifth → move → Tehran
Iran sought to tie the reopening of the strait to concessions from the U.S., while keeping its trump card, the nuclear file, close to its chest.
asserted
Iran → seek → chest
The U.S. toed this line when it signed the MoU, which was largely seen as favourable to Iran.
asserted
which → toe → Iran
But after the collapse of the MoU, the U.S. has been trying to rebuild its lost leverage by easing Iran’s grip on the strait and adding more pain on Iran through economic squeezing.
asserted
U.S. → try → squeezing
The U.S. attempts to open a safer route along the Omani coast to help tankers get in and out of the Strait of Hormuz have been relatively successful.
asserted
tankers → open → Hormuz
Whether with Iran’s tolerance or not, shipments through the waterway rose to almost 80% of its prewar levels in September.
asserted
shipments → rise → September
Before the war, the Gulf region exported nearly 19 million barrels of oil a day through the strait, which fell to a trickle in the first phase of the war, pumping up oil prices.
asserted
which → export → prices
Shipments rose to almost 13 million barrels a day in September, according to ship tracker Huax.
uncertain
Shipments → rise → Huax
While Arab countries, including Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the UAE manage to sell their crude oil out of the strait, Iran’s oil exports collapsed as it faces the American blockade in the Gulf of Oman.
asserted
it → include → Oman
As petroleum exports from the Gulf rebound, Mr. Trump believes that Iran is losing its Hormuz leverage.
asserted
Iran → rebound → leverage
Hence, he insists that the nuclear file be brought back on the table as part of any deal with Iran.
asserted
file → insist → Iran
But Iran insists that its core positions have not changed.
asserted
positions → insist → ?
Even though Mr. Trump said he rejected the Iranian seven-point proposal, Mr. Araghchi said on Tuesday (September 29, 2026) Tehran was expecting an official American response.
asserted
Tehran → say → response
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, in a statement released on Monday (September 28), hailed the “defenders of Hormuz” and added that U.S. forces would be forced out of the Arabian Sea.
asserted
forces → release → Sea
It is true that Iran is facing the economic heat of the U.S. blockade, but Tehran seems prepared to take the pain and not to submit to U.S. demands.
asserted
Tehran → face → demands
And if Iran believes it is losing its leverage, it could also escalate the crisis militarily.
uncertain
it → believe → crisis
This leaves Mr. Trump in a dilemma.
asserted
This → leave → dilemma
He would like to see whether Iran would buckle under economic pressure.
asserted
Iran → like → pressure
But sooner or later, he would face two key questions: Is the U.S. blockade of Iran, along with its guided assistance to vessels in Hormuz, for which Washington has committed enormous military resources, sustainable in the long term?
asserted
Washington → face → term
…and 1 more, not listed.
The Aporia
