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Energy bills set to see biggest rise in four years in January, experts warn

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Williams, H. (2026, September 30). Energy bills set to see biggest rise in four years in January, experts warn. Evening Standard. https://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/energy-bills-government-experts-vat-iran-b1298944.html

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Evening Standard · collected 2026-09-30 · by Holly Williams

Quick Summary

Cornwall Insight predicts that UK energy bills will increase by 16% on January 1st, raising the average dual-fuel bill to £1,999 per year. This marks a £276 rise from October to December levels and represents the largest hike since January 2023, driven primarily by gas supply disruptions due to Middle Eastern conflicts and low EU gas storage levels. Dr. Craig Lowrey of Cornwall Insight emphasizes that households are already struggling with colder weather and post-Christmas expenses, making this increase particularly challenging.
Written by AI on 2026-09-30, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

Household energy bills in England, Scotland, and Wales are forecast to rise significantly starting January 2024, with the average annual dual-fuel bill expected to increase by £1,999, a 16% jump from October to December levels. This would mark the biggest price surge since January 2023, impacting over four million homes on standard energy tariffs. The predicted rise follows an initial 4% increase set for October 1, raising bills by £5 monthly or £60 annually, taking typical annual costs to £1,723. Experts at Cornwall Insight attribute the steep hikes largely to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, particularly disruptions due to the Iran war impacting crucial shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz, and resultant low EU gas storage levels. This development adds pressure on the government to provide further support for households struggling with soaring energy costs during winter months.

Written for “Energy Bill Rise Forecast UK” on 2026-11-05, grounded in this article and the 4 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Energy Bill Rise Forecast UK
Economy/Business · 5 article(s) covering the same event. Compare every outlet's account →

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 11% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
The Independent
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 3 of 47 claims Outlet record 59/100
“The articles discuss different factors affecting energy bills in distinct geographical regions and timeframes.”
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 1 of 9 claims Outlet record 66/100
BBC News
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 4 of 39 claims Outlet record 66/100
Evening Standard
Hedges 0 of 5 claims Outlet record 64/100
Evening Standard
Hedges 1 of 13 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles discuss related topics (high energy prices and potential interest rate hikes), but they describe different events: one is about Bailey's comments on maintaining interest rates, while the other forecasts an increase in energy bills due to supply issues.”
Euronews
Hedges 6 of 24 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the energy crisis in Europe and do not describe the same specific incident.”
BBC News
Hedges 1 of 40 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of energy price increases and their impacts but do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
BBC News
Hedges 1 of 4 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of energy price increases due to the Middle East conflict but describe distinct events: one focuses on diesel and petrol prices hitting an all-time high, while the other predicts a significant rise in dual fuel energy bills.”
Evening Standard
Hedges 3 of 23 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles discuss different economic concerns: one focuses on record high diesel prices and government response, while the other addresses rising energy bills due to geopolitical factors.”
BBC News
Hedges 1 of 14 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of rising energy costs due to global factors but describe distinct events: fuel prices in the Channel Islands and overall dual-fuel energy bills.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
19
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
11%
2 of 19 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
64/100
Evening Standard's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
5
Economy/Business
Same framing elsewhere
2
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-30 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Evening Standard · 8614 article(s) · 73 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 73 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Holly Williams
102 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
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🔮 The telecoms giant said the bulk of the cost savings – about £300 million – will come from job cuts among its 16,000-strong workforce in the UK, with aims to reduce its staff costs by around 30%.
🔮 The group said Mr Potts would take on the role with immediate effect, with current boss Allan Leighton becoming non-executive chairman, two years after he returned to head the firm.
🔮 The telecoms giant said the bulk of the cost savings – about £300 million – will come from job cuts among its 16,000-strong workforce in the UK, with aims to reduce its staff costs by around 30%.
🔮 The telecoms giant said the bulk of the cost savings – about £300 million – will come from job cuts among its 16,000-strong workforce in the UK, with aims to reduce its labour costs by around 30%.
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Also by Holly Williams
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 102 articles by Holly Williams →

Topics

Cornwall Cornwall Insight Government Iran Ofgem

Subjects

Cornwall Insight ORG · 3× Government ORG · 2× Budget ORG · 1× Cornwall GPE · 1× Craig Lowrey PERSON · 1× England GPE · 1× Iran GPE · 1× Ofgem ORG · 1× Scotland GPE · 1× Wales GPE · 1×

Narrative

Cornwall said the increase is driven by the escalating conflict in the Middle East, which has disrupted gas supplies to the UK and worldwide as the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping route has been effectively closed since the Iran war began in February.
framing: assertive · carried by 2 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-30
🔮 Experts at Cornwall Insight have predicted the average dual fuel energy bill will rise by 16% to £1,999 a year on January 1, up by £276 on the level between October and December and the biggest rise since January 2023.
2026-09-30 · Evening Standard
Energy bills set to see biggest rise in four years in January, experts warn · assertive framing
2026-09-30 · Evening Standard
Energy bills set to see biggest rise in four years in January, experts warn · assertive framing

Claims (19 extracted, 2 hedged)

Experts at Cornwall Insight have predicted the average dual fuel energy bill will rise by 16% to £1,999 a year on January 1, up by £276 on the level between October and December and the biggest rise since January 2023. asserted
bill → predict → January
Cornwall said the increase is driven by the escalating conflict in the Middle East, which has disrupted gas supplies to the UK and worldwide as the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping route has been effectively closed since the Iran war began in February. asserted
war → say → February
Storage levels of EU gas are now at their lowest September level for 15 years, Cornwall Insight said. asserted
Insight → say → years
The stark warning comes ahead of the October 1 rise in Ofgem’s energy price cap, which will see bills jump by 4%. asserted
bills → come → %
The increase on Thursday will mean the energy bill for the average household in England, Scotland and Wales paying by direct debit for gas and electricity reaches £1,723, up £5 a month or £60 a year if this level was sustained over 12 months. asserted
level → mean → months
More than four million homes who remain on a standard energy tariff will be impacted, coming at a time when cooler temperatures will see many switching on their central heating. asserted
many → remain → heating
Dr Craig Lowrey, principal consultant at Cornwall Insight, said: “These prices are going to hit households hard. asserted
prices → say → households
“January is already a difficult month for many, with cold weather and bank balances still recovering from Christmas, and now they face the biggest price cap rise we’ve seen in four years. asserted
we → recover → years
“At the moment, we can’t yet see an end to the volatility, and with gas stocks as low as they are, the effects of the conflict could be with us for many more months.” uncertain
effects → see → months
He said the Budget on October 28 may offer some more support to under-pressure households, on top of the decision to remove VAT from household electricity bills, which also takes effect from Thursday. uncertain
which → say → Thursday
The removal of the 5% levy until March 31 next year will save the average bill payer around £45 a year, estimates from the Government show. asserted
estimates → save → Government
The policy was one of Andy Burnham’s first moves as Prime Minister to ease household bills, announced in July on the day after he took over the post. asserted
he → ease → post
Households will still pay 5% VAT for gas. asserted
Households → pay → gas
Comparison site Uswitch urged households without smart meters to send in readings to their supplier by the end of the month to avoid being charged higher rates for energy used before October 1. asserted
Uswitch → urge → October
Homes on a standard tariff with average usage are expected to spend £145 on energy in October, compared with £109 in September. asserted
Homes → expect → September
The increase of a third is down to a combination of increased usage due to cooler temperatures and higher unit rates under the latest price cap. asserted
increase → increase → cap
The energy regulator will announce its next price cap, covering January to March 2027, in November. asserted
regulator → announce → November
National Energy Action chief executive Adam Scorer urged the Government to do more to help poorer households with energy costs. asserted
Scorer → urge → costs
He said: “The Autumn Budget must deliver additional targeted support for households most at risk this winter, alongside action to tackle energy debt and improve the least energy efficient homes.” asserted
Budget → say → homes
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