AS DEMOCRATIC OPERATIVES brace for the final weeks of the midterm campaign, they’ve been pleased to discover that they may not need to actually get above 50 percent of the vote to win in several key races.
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they → brace → races
Libertarian and other third-party candidates are poised to play a particularly consequential role this cycle—likely as spoilers for Republicans, and likely to a greater degree than in past elections.
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candidates → poise → elections
Several Democratic pollsters told me they’ve been surprised by how well those candidates continue to poll, noting that historically their support tends to fade as voting nears.
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voting → tell → me
And there is widespread belief that their overperformance will squarely hurt Republicans: The theory goes that pissed-off GOP voters will choose to back third-party candidates as an act of protest against Donald Trump or GOP incumbents without having to vote blue.
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voters → be → Trump
“We’re seeing Libertarians poll steadily a month out from the election at 4 to 5 percent, depending on the poll and depending on the state,” said Kevin Akins, a Democratic pollster who is working on a number of competitive battleground races this cycle.
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who → see → races
“The Libertarian impact and effect here has the potential to be more pronounced than ever in battleground races,” he added.
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he → have → races
“If the Libertarian candidates hold their current position . . . it could be the difference in flipping the U.S. Senate this year.”
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it → hold → Senate
Democratic officials told me that they’re seeing this dynamic play out in competitive House races in North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Texas.
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dynamic → tell → Carolina
They also believe it could be a factor in Senate races in Iowa, Texas, South Carolina, Ohio, and Kansas.
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it → believe → Iowa
And so Republicans are really getting hurt in places like Texas, where I think [the Libertarian candidate] gets 2 or 3 percent,” said Democratic pollster John Anzalone.
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Anzalone → hurt → percent
“All of a sudden the Democrats’ win number is not 50 percent; it’s 48, or 48.5, or 47.5.
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it → ’ → ?
And that’s a big deal.
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that → ’ → ?
Then come the presidential primaries.
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primaries → come → ?
And there will be no shortage of people telling you what they’d like you to believe.
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you → tell → what
We’re here to find out what’s true and to help you think through what comes next.
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what → ’re → ?
Independent journalism needs independent support.
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journalism → need → support
Join Bulwark+ today and help us keep doing it.
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us → join → it
Democrats have historically faced their own challenges when it comes to third-party candidates siphoning off their votes.
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candidates → face → votes
And they could face them again this cycle with a number of key House races featuring Green party candidates—including some with suspicious ties to conservatives.
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they → face → conservatives
But the impact of third parties tends to become magnified as voters sour on one or another of the major parties—something that is quickly happening to the GOP as the midterms near.
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midterms → tend → GOP
Recent polling shows that the Republican brand has taken a beating since the 2024 presidential election.
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brand → show → election
A new Wall Street Journal poll—which Anzalone conducted along with Republican Adam Geller—found that just 38 percent of registered voters have a favorable view of the Democratic party and 39 percent have a favorable view of the Republican party.
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percent → conduct → party
Another recent survey from the Argument found that the net favorability of the Republican party among likely voters is 10 points worse than the Democratic party’s.
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favorability → find → party
“Everyone really hates the Republicans right now,” Lakshya Jain, head of political data and polls at the Argument, told me.
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Jain → hat → me
“It is hard to overstate just how mad people are at the Republican party for the war, the price of gas, just for Trump in general.
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people → overstate → Trump
This is basically what public opinion looks like when the public thinks that there’s a failed presidency.”
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public → look → what
There are clear signs that Republicans know that Libertarian candidates could pose a particular threat this November.
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candidates → be → threat
Over the summer, the Washington Post reported that Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pressured Rick Stewart, a Libertarian candidate running in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District, to drop out of the race.
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Jr. → report → race
Libertarian Marco Battaglia also told Politico that RFK Jr. and incumbent GOP Rep. Zach Nunn privately urged him to end his campaign for Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District (Battaglia was later removed from the ballot by state officials after failing to meet election requirements).
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Battaglia → tell → requirements
As for the Iowa Senate race, Democrats see Libertarian Thomas Laehn as particularly helpful in Josh Turek’s effort to defeat Republican Ashley Hinson.
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Democrats → see → Hinson
“[Laehn] kind of presents himself as conservative.
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Laehn → present → himself
That’s really going to hurt Hinson because folks are very upset with how everything has been going in Iowa.
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everything → go → Iowa
And there are a lot of pissed-off traditional conservatives,” Derek Eadon, former chair of the Iowa Democratic Party, told me.
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Eadon → be → me
“I just don’t think we’ve seen anything like this here.
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we → think → this
I’m confident that [Laehn] is going to get more votes than any [Libertarian] candidate has before.
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candidate → ’m → votes
In my conversations with party operatives, another race that kept coming up as one where the Libertarian candidate could have a particularly large impact on the outcome is the Texas Senate contest between James Talarico and Ken Paxton.
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candidate → keep → Talarico
Democratic operatives believe that some Republican voters won’t feel comfortable backing the scandal-plagued Paxton.
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voters → believe → Paxton
They told me that the contentious GOP primary between Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn only deepened the fracture in the party’s base.
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primary → tell → base
It piqued a lot of interest when Cornyn posted a local news story to his X account in June about how Libertarian Ted Brown was courting disaffected conservative voters.
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Brown → pique → voters
“There are a non-insignificant number of Cornyn voters who I think are up for grabs and are uncomfortable with the idea of Ken Paxton—and maybe at this point, after all the ads, could be uncomfortable with [Talarico],” said a Texas-based Democratic strategist who is close to the Talarico campaign.
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who → be → campaign
…and 24 more, not listed.
The Aporia
