"Traveling to Sarasota? Say hi to Senator Roger Marshall."
Colorful billboards popped up in Kansas with that slogan Tuesday night, as the state's Senate race heats up for the first time in nearly a century.
The billboards depict the incumbent Republican senator, Roger Marshall, wearing a Hawaiian shirt and lounging in a beach chair against a tropical backdrop.
asserted
billboards → travel → backdrop
Placed by United Futures PAC, a super PAC supporting his Democratic opponent, Rev. Adam Hamilton, it's an attempt to hammer home one of Democrats' main attacks: that Marshall is out of touch with Kansans.
asserted
Marshall → place → Kansans
It's a message they hope will resonate.
asserted
they → hope → ?
"Right now there's a perfect storm for Hamilton," said Bob Beatty, chair of the Department of Political Science at Washburn University in Topeka, Kansas.
asserted
Beatty → be → Topeka
"There's no doubt he can win."
asserted
he → be → ?
He pointed to President Trump's unpopularity, a troubled agriculture sector and Hamilton appealing to moderate Republicans as factors that could flip the seat.
uncertain
that → point → seat
Hamilton only switched his party affiliation from Republican to Democratic in April, when he declared his Senate candidacy.
asserted
he → switch → candidacy
Although Mr. Trump won Kansas by 16 points in 2024, his
, as high fuel prices from the Iran war and tariffs cut into the bottom lines of two of the most reliable Republican voting blocs in the state: farmers and ranchers.
asserted
prices → win → state
According to AAA, the price of diesel — which fuels trucks and heavy farm machinery — is up 79% compared to a year ago, and jumped nearly a dollar in just the last 30 days, throwing harvest profit projections into a downward spiral.
uncertain
which → accord → spiral
And Mr. Trump's decision to suspend tariffs on 300 metric tons of Argentine beef to bring down prices has hurt ranchers, who are now facing losses of up to $600 per head.
asserted
who → suspend → head
The Trump administration's immigration policies are also taking an economic toll — a recent string of unexpected Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids in western Kansas caused an outcry from some industry leaders, saying the hit to their workforces will lead to higher beef prices.
asserted
hit → take → prices
Following the industry reaction, Marshall distanced himself from Mr. Trump.
asserted
Marshall → follow → Trump
He pushed back on the raids in a post on X: "When ICE operates in Kansas, it needs to coordinate with our local law enforcement."
asserted
it → push → enforcement
Marshall has generally defended Mr. Trump's Iran strategy, and predicted energy prices would drop after the war ends.
asserted
war → defend → strategy
He said in a debate earlier this month: "I want the war to be over as soon as anybody does."
asserted
anybody → say → debate
Marshall, who previously represented Kansas in the House, was elected to the Senate in 2020 by an 11-point margin and is now running for his second term.
asserted
who → represent → term
But in a state that hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, history is against Hamilton.
asserted
history → elect → Hamilton
"If this were another state besides Kansas, he'd be the clear frontrunner," said Beatty.
asserted
Beatty → say → Kansas
"But because of Kansas' history, people aren't going to believe it until it happens."
asserted
it → go → it
Recent polls show Hamilton, a pastor who leads the largest United Methodist church in Kansas, has a fighting chance.
asserted
who → show → chance
The most recent polls show a virtually tied race: An Emerson College/Nexstar poll released in mid-September showed Hamilton slightly ahead of Marshall at 45% to 43%, a statistical tie for a poll with a 3.6-point margin of error.
asserted
Hamilton → show → error
Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball have recently changed their race ratings from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican."
asserted
Report → change → Republican
A political novice, Hamilton founded the United Methodist Church of the Resurrection, which says it has more than 23,000 members and nine locations across the Kansas City area.
asserted
it → found → area
He describes himself as a centrist.
asserted
He → describe → centrist
Marshall has characterized Hamilton as a liberal Democrat whose "mask is slipping."
asserted
mask → characterize → Democrat
On Monday, he posted on X: "Make no mistake: Adam Hamilton is a radical Democrat, and his sermons are identical to the Democratic Party platform" — pointing to sermons in which Hamilton talked about issues like climate change and diversity.
asserted
Hamilton → post → change
Attack ads against Hamilton paint him as a "snake oil salesman" profiting excessively from his megachurch.
asserted
ads → paint → megachurch
Hamilton is attempting to tie Marshall to Mr. Trump's track record, painting him as a puppet of Washington, disconnected from the concerns of Kansans.
asserted
Hamilton → attempt → Kansans
But some experts remain skeptical that Hamilton will be able to win over the entire state.
"
asserted
Hamilton → remain → state
It's hard for a lot of voters to cross party lines," said Greg Vonnahe, a political science professor at the University of Missouri-Kansas City.
asserted
Vonnahe → cross → Missouri
"While Democrats feel optimistic about Hamilton, in the back of their minds I think they're also thinking 'we've seen a version of this before,'" he added.
asserted
we → feel → this
"Sometimes the way politics look in Eastern Kansas and Johnson County can be really different from what the conversation is in Western Kansas."
asserted
conversation → look → Kansas
The billboards, displayed in Kansas City and Wichita, refer to Marshall's vacation home in Sarasota, Florida, which Hamilton often raises, alleging that Marshall owns more valuable property and spends more time in Florida than Kansas.
asserted
Marshall → display → Kansas
His Sarasota home, which Marshall says sustained hurricane damage and has been uninhabitable for two years, was listed for sale in March.
asserted
Marshall → say → March
"Roger Marshall asks Kansans for their votes every six years and then heads down to his home in Florida, a long way from the farm towns and small cities hit hard by tariffs, the war in Iran and rising costs," said a spokesperson for United Futures PAC.
asserted
spokesperson → ask → PAC
"Our billboard reminds voters that their senator has already chosen where he'd rather be, and in November they get to decide whether to send him to Florida full time."
asserted
they → remind → Florida
During a recent debate at the Kansas State Fair, Marshall retaliated against jabs about his second home, pointing out that Hamilton — whom he called a "very successful megachurch CEO" — owns four homes.
asserted
he → retaliate → homes
Hamilton said two of the homes were purchased for his daughters.
asserted
two → say → daughters
Marshall told a jeering audience that his home was "a short hour's drive down a gravel road here" and sits on 320 acres.
asserted
home → tell → acres
He explained he spent time in Florida to see his grandchildren.
asserted
he → explain → grandchildren
…and 23 more, not listed.
The Aporia
