On September 14, the First Ministers of Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland came together in Cardiff, the capital city of Wales, to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) and declared, “For the first time ever, people across these islands have First Ministers…who are all committed to independence from the United Kingdom.
asserted
who → come → Kingdom
For people watching across these islands — for people watching around the world — there could be no clearer sign that Westminster’s time is coming to an end.”
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time → watch → end
The MoU is being seen as a significant political statement by all three parties towards constitutional independence from the U.K.
The U.K. is often described as a multi-national state (or a State of Unions), developed gradually over several centuries.
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U.K. → see → centuries
As per the Cabinet Office, the U.K. is comprised of four ‘nations’ — England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
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U.K. → comprise → nations
The nations of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have strong cultural identities, their own language and customs as well as complicated histories vis-a-vis England, marked by conquests and rebellions.
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nations → have → conquests
It is owing to such strong assertions of identity and independence that these nations within the U.K. have been granted varying degrees of self-government and devolved powers.
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nations → owe → government
However, calls for independence or an absolute devolution of powers have always remained in public discourse, and today, with the leaders of all three nations being vocal proponents of self-determination, the mandate has been brought to Westminster in full force.
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mandate → remain → force
However, independence does not look the same for all three nations; it’s characterised by their specific contexts, histories and geopolitical locations.
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it → look → contexts
The Irish question
Northern Ireland is governed by a power-sharing agreement known as consociationalism, as laid down in the Good Friday Agreement of 1998.
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Ireland → govern → 1998
Considering the tumultuous history of violence between the pro-Irish (Nationalists or Republicans) and pro-Union (Loyalists or Unionists) groups, consociationalism mandates that power should be shared between all sectarian groups equally.
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power → consider → groups
However, pro-Irish groups in Northern Ireland and Sinn Fein do not wish for independence; they wish to unite with the Republic of Ireland.
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they → wish → Ireland
Owing to such strong sympathies, the Good Friday Agreement has a clause which keeps this option open — that the people of Northern Ireland could seek reunification with Ireland any time, subject to a referendum.
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people → owe → referendum
However, a referendum can be called only by the U.K. Secretary of State for Northern Ireland if no other referendum has taken place in the past seven years or if the Secretary thinks that a majority of people wish to leave the U.K. and join Ireland.
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majority → call → Ireland
The Unionists have strongly pushed back against the MoU.
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Unionists → push → MoU.
Emma Little-Pengelly, the Deputy First Minister, said the MoU was signed by Ms. O’Neill in her capacity as a leader of Sinn Fein and not as First Minister.
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MoU → say → Minister
It isn’t, she said, “on behalf of Northern Ireland”.
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she → say → Ireland
While the Republic of Ireland has always stood firm in its demand for a united Ireland, Mr. Martin said that Sinn Fein does not have the right approach.
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Fein → stand → approach
He said that the party may have set back the cause of Irish unity by aligning the movement with the Scottish and Welsh causes.
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party → say → causes
Many in Scotland, on the other hand, wish for it to become an independent country.
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it → wish → hand
Scotland voted for devolution in a 1997 referendum, and the Scottish Parliament was established in 1999.
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Parliament → vote → 1999
However, ever since the Scottish National Party (SNP) took power in the Holyrood (Scottish Parliament) in 2007, the demand for an absolute devolution of powers has been in the public discourse.
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demand → take → discourse
The party had been consistently pushing for a referendum in Scotland on the question of independence, with one finally being held in 2014.
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one → push → 2014
While the referendum saw a massive turnout, the result was a major blow to the SNP; the Yes camp, which believed that Scotland should be independent, lost, receiving 44.7% of the votes.
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Scotland → see → votes
The No campaign won 55.3% of the total votes.
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campaign → win → votes
While this led to a mild dampener for a period of time, the SNP, under Nicola Sturgeon, revived the demand again post-Brexit.
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SNP → lead → demand
She alleged that even though 62% of the Scottish people voted to remain in the European Union (EU), the U.K. left the alliance; this underlined the importance of self-determination for the Scottish people.
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this → allege → people
Currently, John Swinney, Prime Minister and leader of the SNP, upholds the same demand.
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Swinney → uphold → demand
While he advocated for the steady and gradual devolution of powers from Westminster when he first took the post of First Minister in 2024, the victory of pro-Independence parties in the recent state elections, held in May 2026, has given Mr. Swinney and the SNP fresh hope.
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victory → advocate → hope
Together with the Scottish Green Party, the Holyrood now has 73 pro-independence members.
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Holyrood → have → members
Mr. Swinney has taken this to mean a shift in public opinion about the need for total devolution and has strongly pushed for mechanisms to hold a second referendum by 2031.
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Swinney → take → 2031
A shift in Wales
The strong stand taken by Wales in signing the MoU is somewhat of a departure from its earlier position.
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stand → take → position
The nation, a stronghold of the Labour Party
Plaid Cymru, established in 1925, has always held the ideal of self-determination at the centre of its political project.
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nation → establish → project
However, support for an independent Welsh nation has been a relatively minor position within the country as compared to Scotland.
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support → compare → Scotland
For example, the Welsh referendum in 1997, which was the first step to devolution of powers and the creation of a Welsh National Assembly, passed very narrowly with just 50.3% voting in favour of an Assembly as opposed to 49.7% who voted against the motion.
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who → pass → motion
However, since then, the momentum for greater devolution from Westminster and more autonomy has been steadily gaining ground in the region.
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momentum → gain → region
In the 2011 referendum, which was to decide whether the National Assembly for Wales should gain the power to legislate on a wider range of matters, the result was more promising with almost 63.49% voting yes for more powers as opposed to just 36.51% voting no.
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% → decide → powers
The Labour Party, while being opposed to the idea of a total devolution of powers, has increasingly argued for more constitutional powers to Wales, especially regarding matters of policing and justice.
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Party → oppose → policing
In fact, in November 2021, the Labour-led Welsh government set up an Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales in order to seriously consider the possibility of an independent Wales along with other potential options such as enhanced devolution, and a more federal U.K.
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government → lead → U.K.
The Commission submitted its report in 2024 wherein it emphasised that the idea of an independent Wales cannot be kept out of popular imagination anymore even though it still does not enjoy as much as popular support as it does in Scotland.
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it → submit → Scotland
The report also underlined the possible “short-term to medium” risks especially with respect to currency, government finances, trade and movement across borders.
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report → underline → borders
…and 26 more, not listed.
The Aporia
