The Conservatives will try to spin the departure of Scott Aitchison, the popular MP for Parry Sound–Muskoka, as being of negligible importance.
asserted
Conservatives → try → importance
Here’s a guy in his early 50s who has spent more than 30 years in municipal and federal politics, and who has decided to move on to another stage in life.
asserted
who → ’ → life
Aitchison’s reasons for leaving at the end of the fall session remain vague.
asserted
reasons → leave → session
He said on social media that it is “time for a new chapter to explore new opportunities.”
asserted
it → say → opportunities
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But he will become the eighth Conservative MP to leave the caucus in the last year.
asserted
he → become → year
Losing one might be deemed unfortunate; losing eight looks like a serious exodus.
uncertain
losing → lose → exodus
Aitchison, a former leadership candidate, is a smart man who can read the runes, and he clearly doesn’t fancy spending his autumn years sitting in Opposition — and that’s if he is re-elected.
asserted
he → read → Opposition
He won his northern Ontario riding by 10 points last year, but that was when the Pierre Poilievre-led Conservative party won 41 per cent of the vote nationally.
asserted
party → win → vote
It is much lower in the public esteem these days and the 338 Canada website rates Parry Sound–Muskoka as “Liberal-leaning” if a vote were held tomorrow.
asserted
vote → rat → Muskoka
He is (as he noted in his letter to his constituents this week announcing his plan to leave) a consensus builder.
asserted
he → note → plan
When the current leader was championing the Freedom Convoy in 2022, Aitchison was standing up in the House of Commons, pointing out that he and his colleagues weren’t sent to Ottawa to represent only those people who put up their lawn signs.
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who → champion → signs
“We weren’t sent here to represent the lowest common denominator.
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We → send → denominator
We were sent here to raise it,” he said.
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he → send → it
“The majority of Canadians are incredibly reasonable people who just want their government to do what it does well, get on with life and stop the screaming,” he said.
asserted
he → want → screaming
“You don’t have to attack someone to prove your point.”
asserted
You → have → point
The Conservative rank and file disagreed, electing Poilievre on the first ballot.
asserted
rank → disagree → ballot
Aitchison picked up just 1.2 per cent of the votes cast.
asserted
Aitchison → pick → votes
But he remained popular with his colleagues: “one of the good guys,” said an MP this week.
asserted
MP → remain → guys
He was first elected as a local councillor at age 21, just six years after rejecting the Jehovah’s Witness faith in which he was raised.
asserted
he → elect → which
He said family and friends used an excommunication plan to isolate him as a teenager, until he was taken in by a local family.
asserted
he → say → family
He apparently credits the town of Huntsville, Ont. for raising him and is planning to write a book on his life experiences.
asserted
He → credit → experiences
After his leadership defeat, he hunkered down as the party’s housing critic — “contributing to a fundamental shift in the national debate on housing,” in his own words.
asserted
he → hunker → words
As a former mayor of Huntsville, he had no time for NIMBYism and his leadership campaign proposed tying municipal funding to building more homes.
asserted
campaign → have → homes
Rather, it is indicative of a Conservative party whose reach is ebbing.
Moreover, it suggests the 2025 election result was a high-water bulge and that support levels are likely to continue dropping steadily.
uncertain
levels → ebb → party
In 2000, the Canadian Alliance scored a breakthrough of sorts, electing 66 MPs, including two in Ontario, with the backing of one-quarter of the electorate.
asserted
Alliance → score → electorate
Prior to that election, the Alliance and its predecessor, Reform, were considered western protest parties.
asserted
Alliance → consider → election
That election result provided a base from which to grow.
asserted
result → provide → which
Within two years, Stephen Harper had defeated Stockwell Day to become leader and within three, the right had united to form the modern Conservative party.
asserted
right → defeat → party
Harper’s greatest achievement was building a national coalition that not only won and retained power in 2006, 2008 and 2011 but proved robust enough to endure defeat.
asserted
that → build → defeat
In his book, Harper’s Team, former Conservative campaign organizer Tom Flanagan said Conservatives had never really recovered from the death of Sir John A. Macdonald in 1891 because no leader had been able to hold together a durable coalition.
asserted
leader → say → coalition
Robert Borden, R. B. Bennett, John Diefenbaker and Brian Mulroney had recorded temporary successes, but all ended not just in defeat but in disaster, Flanagan wrote, leaving the party worse off than it was before.
asserted
it → record → party
Harper, by contrast, left a party with 99 MPs and money in the bank in 2015.
asserted
Harper → leave → 2015
Writing in 2007, Flanagan urged that his party follow “10 Commandments” to cement the Conservatives as Canada’s natural governing party.
asserted
party → write → party
They included unity among the different strands of conservatism; moderation; inclusion; and the ability to learn from experience.
asserted
They → include → experience
Conservatives lose if the others line up together, Flanagan said.
asserted
Flanagan → lose → ?
“We must avoid being painted as the Great Satan of Canadian politics, as happened with the Reform Party and Canadian Alliance.”
If Conservatives are perceived as a threat to civilization by fearful moderates or left-wing voters, those people are likely to vote Liberal, he said.
asserted
he → avoid → Liberal
“We can’t win if we veer too far to the right of the median voter.”
asserted
we → win → voter
Poilievre appears to have forgotten or abandoned those prescriptions as he leads the party back to Canadian Alliance levels of support.
asserted
he → appear → support
This week’s Nanos opinion poll rated Liberal support in Ontario at nearly 60 per cent, with the Conservatives at around half that level.
asserted
Conservatives → rat → level
Not many of the party’s 50 MPs would survive that kind of electoral tidal wave.
asserted
many → survive → wave
…and 5 more, not listed.
The Aporia
