Poll suggests slight majority of UCP voters favour separation as party stares down ‘tough days’ ahead
That trumps other groups, from age to religiosity to education
As part of her latest round of polling, Janet Brown sought to understand the factors driving support for separatism in advance of Alberta's Oct. 19 referendum.
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Brown → suggest → referendum
She found most support wasn’t found amongst people who live outside the major cities.
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who → find → cities
Nor was it of those who work a certain type of job or make a certain amount of money.
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who → work → money
The group where the highest levels of support for Option 2 was found?
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levels → find → Option
It is that part of the voting public that is split on this issue,” she said.
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she → vote → issue
On Oct. 19, voters will be asked whether Alberta should remain a province of Canada, or whether the Government of Alberta should hold a second, binding referendum to separate from Canada.
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Government → ask → Canada
Follow all of our Alberta referendum coverage
Everything you need to know about the 10 questions in Alberta's Oct. 19 referendum
Among those polled who said they would vote for the United Conservative Party, 53 per cent said they’d vote for the separation option.
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they → follow → option
Forty per cent said they’d vote to stay in Canada.
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they → say → Canada
That trumped all demographic groups studied by Brown and her team.
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That → trump → Brown
Compared to the 53 per cent of UCP supporters in favour of the separation option, 25 per cent of respondents in small centres said they’d vote for Option 2 on Oct. 19.
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they → compare → Oct.
Twenty-eight per cent of those with a high school education or less supported the separation option, while 30 per cent of those with college or some university said the same.
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cent → support → same
At 98 per cent, nearly all respondents who said they would vote for the Alberta NDP if an election were held today said they wanted to stay in Canada.
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they → say → Canada
“I’m a little bit surprised to see them that high in the UCP, very admittedly,” Travis Toews told CBC News of the numbers.
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Toews → ’m → numbers
He’s one of the signatories to the federalist initiative known as Lead Not Leave.
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He → ’ → Leave
He sees “lingering scar tissue” in the party tied to former federal policy.
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He → see → policy
“I think many of us were disillusioned during those years,” Toews said.
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Toews → think → years
But he argued conditions have improved under Prime Minister Mark Carney.
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conditions → argue → Carney
“It’s a different day.
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It → ’ → ?
We now have … the majority of Canadians supporting energy development and pipelines,” he said.
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he → have → development
“Over time, we can agree with a majority of Canadians on key economic issues that not only will affect Alberta's prosperity down the road, but quite frankly, the whole nation's.
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that → agree → road
Still, Toews sees the political clouds swirling.
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clouds → see → ?
The divide between the two camps in the party poses challenges in advance of the next election, in his view.
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divide → pose → view
“I think if we continue to have a preoccupation — if right of centre provincial political parties continue to have a fixation with separation and independence — I believe it will make it very difficult for those parties to form government provincially,” he said.
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he → think → government
On Tuesday, Red Deer-South UCP MLA Jason Stephan confirmed to CBC News he has voted in favour of proceeding with a legally binding referendum on whether the province should leave Canada.
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province → confirm → Canada
“I've always supported having a referendum on independence because I want Ottawa to be compelled to fix the things that are broken," he said.
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he → support → things
He added, “I've never said that I want Alberta to separate."
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Alberta → add → ?
Last month, the Alberta NDP flipped a conservative stronghold with a win in Calgary-Shaw.
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NDP → flip → Shaw
Later that week, a UCP riding association in southern Alberta formally urged a party vote to review the premier’s leadership.
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association → urge → leadership
“Here’s the reality: this kind of an issue is very divisive.
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kind → ’ → issue
And it’s divisive within communities, within businesses, within families and certainly within constituency associations,” Toews said.
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Toews → ’ → associations
“We need to get through this, past this referendum.
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We → need → referendum
I believe that we as Albertans need to rally around the principle of leading, not leaving.”
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we → believe → principle
It was Highwood, a riding south of Calgary, that was first out of the gate calling for a party vote of the premier’s leadership.
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that → call → leadership
Forcing such a vote would require the support of a total of 22 associations.
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Forcing → force → associations
Tanya Clemens, co-leader of the separatist group Let Alberta Decide, is part of the Highwood association.
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Alberta → let → association
She told CBC News that while she tends to doubt conservatives are accurately represented in polling, she believes there is a “large, silent group” of members that are in support of separation but who fear backlash should they vocalize that opinion.
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they → tell → opinion
She said she supported the leadership review given Smith’s stance that Alberta should remain in Canada.
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Alberta → say → Canada
“I just want to ensure that, as much as I love and respect her, that if we win Option 2 on Oct. 19, that she is then accountable to the people to deliver on that mandate,” Clemens said.
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Clemens → want → mandate
“And that would be to then call the independence referendum for the spring of 2027.”
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that → call → 2027
There may be more constituency associations that similarly endorse a leadership review, UCP president Rob Smith wrote in a comment on Facebook.
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Smith → endorse → Facebook
…and 24 more, not listed.
The Aporia
