Over the last year and a half, the US has seen a historic drop in homicides.
asserted
US → see → homicides
Researchers and reporters are still puzzling through the complex set of reasons why - from the easing of pandemic-era stressors and the Biden administration’s investments in community-based violence prevention to policing and other factors.
asserted
Researchers → puzzle → policing
As the midterm elections approach, the White House has been doubling down on this message, saying its crackdown against immigrants is why US crime rates are now falling.
asserted
rates → approach → immigrants
“We have the most secure border in the world, nobody comes in, unless they’re invited.
asserted
they → have → world
Unless they have permission,” Trump said during a speech to the UN general assembly last week.
asserted
Trump → have → assembly
“As a result, last year we achieved the largest drop in violent crime ever recorded.”
asserted
we → achieve → crime
JD Vance, the vice-president, made a similar claim at a rally in Iowa the week prior.
uncertain
Vance → make → Iowa
“When you get the violent criminals out of your country you see the largest drop in violent crime in the history of the United States of America,” he said.
asserted
he → get → America
“Murder rates, because we got the bad guys out.”
asserted
we → get → guys
But experts say this simply isn’t true.
asserted
this → say → ?
There’s no data that proves mass deportations or enhanced immigration enforcement leads to lower crime rates, and the research that does exist shows there is no relationship between immigrants – documented or not – and homicide rates in the US, experts say.
asserted
experts → ’ → US
“It’s a specious claim if you’ve never attempted to verify anything with actual facts and are willing to believe what the administration will tell you,” said Pratheepan Gulasekaram, a law professor at the University of Colorado, Boulder.
uncertain
Gulasekaram → ’ → Colorado
“If you live in a fact-free world this is the type of nonsensical data you’re willing to imbibe.
asserted
you → live → data
In addition, the plummeting homicide rate the US is experiencing now didn’t start during Trump’s second term.
asserted
US → plummet → term
It started in 2023, when Biden was president, researchers say.
asserted
researchers → start → 2023
Even though there’s no evidence to back up the Trump administration’s claims, Gulasekaram said xenophobia is one reason why they resonate with many Americans.
uncertain
they → ’ → Americans
“There’s an intuitive appeal to that claim if you start with the premise that foreigners are so different from us and are the source of economic and social ills,” he said.
uncertain
he → ’ → ills
“That feeds into that underlying sentiment and it becomes extremely sticky.”
asserted
it → feed → sentiment
Other conservatives are echoing the White House’s unsubstantiated claims by making the same link between immigrants and crime.
uncertain
conservatives → echo → immigrants
In a May Instagram video, Erich Pratt, vice-president of Gun Owners of America argued that Americans are “enjoying unprecedented safety”, because of the Trump administration’s aggressive approach to immigration enforcement.
uncertain
Americans → argue → enforcement
“It didn’t come from new gun restrictions,” he said in an email to the Guardian of the plummeting homicide rates across the US.
asserted
he → come → US
“It came from a shift in priorities.
asserted
It → come → priorities
President Trump implemented measures aimed at deporting violent gang members, ending catch-and-release policies for illegal aliens, and getting repeat offenders off the streets.”
asserted
Trump → implement → streets
A Guardian analysis published in February showed that more than 75% of people who entered deportation proceedings for the first time had no criminal convictions.
asserted
who → publish → convictions
Only 34 of more than 18,400 people arrested by ICE between 2025 and June this year were convicted of killing someone, according to DHS data.
uncertain
34 → arrest → data
The most common convictions were for illegal re-entry, driving under the influence and a category marked as “other.”
asserted
convictions → mark → other
It’s unclear how many undocumented migrants are currently in prison for murder convictions or have been convicted for killing someone since Trump took office.
uncertain
Trump → ’ → office
State prisons track demographic information such as age, race and type of conviction but, with the exception of Texas, immigration status is not one of them.
asserted
status → track → them
And by the federal government’s own acknowledgement, there is no comprehensive or centralized data on the citizenship status of people incarcerated in local jails and state prisons, the government accountability office said in a 28 September report.
asserted
office → be → report
Still, Trump has spent a decade claiming, without evidence, that undocumented migrants pose a safety threat to US citizens.
asserted
migrants → spend → citizens
In his 2016 presidential run, he repeatedly talked about the killing of Kate Steinle, a 32-year-old woman who had been killed in San Francisco the year before.
asserted
who → talk → Francisco
The man accused of killing her was undocumented, but he was eventually acquitted.
asserted
he → accuse → her
And during his 2024 run, he often spoke of Laken Riley, a nursing student who was killed while she was jogging.
asserted
she → speak → Riley
Her killer was an undocumented immigrant, and was sentenced to life in prison.
asserted
killer → sentence → prison
Researchers say that stories like these have long been used to push for tougher immigration policies and more deportations.
asserted
stories → say → policies
“The argument in their tragic cases is that they should have never been at risk because this person should have never been able to commit these crimes,” said Michael Light, a sociology professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
asserted
Light → commit → Wisconsin
“But that’s more of a political disagreement than an empirical one.”
asserted
that → ’ → one
Leaning on these kinds of anecdotes to determine immigration policy, and then claiming that they have led to public safety can cause misunderstandings of why homicides and other crimes have decreased, Light said.
asserted
Light → lean → misunderstandings
“There’s no question that they’ve increased enforcement and we’ve seen a historic decrease in homicides,” he said.
asserted
he → ’ → homicides
“But the idea that immigration policy is the only thing that’s changed is problematic.
asserted
that → change → ?
…and 4 more, not listed.
The Aporia
