Welcome to Washington Secrets, which this week comes to you from Kansas.
asserted
which → welcome → Kansas
If a friend sent you this and you’d like to sign up, CLICK HERE.
asserted
you → send → this
Kansas holds the record for the longest continuous streak of single-party control of both Senate seats in a state.
asserted
Kansas → hold → state
Republicans have held them since 1939.
asserted
Republicans → hold → 1939
Could that be about to change?
uncertain
that → about → ?
Top election prognosticators have shifted the race from a definite Republican win to a Senate contest that now only leans to the GOP.
asserted
that → shift → GOP
A recent poll suggested Adam Hamilton, the Democratic candidate, holds a 2-point lead over the incumbent Republican, Sen. Roger Marshall.
uncertain
Hamilton → suggest → Republican
So what’s going on?
asserted
what → go → ?
Is it the same old story of a race tightening after Labor Day, only for the Republican to romp away with it as big donors pour in money?
asserted
donors → tighten → money
Or is something more interesting going on?
asserted
something → go → ?
Secrets is driving around Kansas this week to find out.
asserted
Secrets → drive → Kansas
From the big Kansas City suburbs where nearly one-third of voters live, three hours south to Coffeyville, with its beef ranchers, back northwest to Salina, sits on major trucking intersections, and then south again to Wichita, known as the “Air Capital of the World” for its rich aviation and aerospace manufacturing history.
asserted
third → live → history
This is what we have found out so far.
asserted
we → find → what
Kansas is not as red as you think.
asserted
you → think → ?
It has had seven Democratic governors in the time since the last Democratic senator.
asserted
It → have → senator
As one operative put it to me, it goes for populists.
asserted
it → put → populists
As Michael Smith, professor of political science at Emporia State University, told me: “This is the perfect opportunity for Democrats.”
asserted
This → tell → Democrats
Trump’s tariffs and the war with Iran, and their impact on fuel prices, have really hurt farmers, a vital part of the Kansas economy.
asserted
tariffs → hurt → economy
Privately, Republicans agree.
asserted
Republicans → agree → ?
If Trump had deliberately wanted to tank their chances in Kansas, they joke, he would have raised diesel prices, slammed Bombardier (a big employer in Wichita), and launched raids on meat packing plants.
asserted
he → want → plants
Incumbents who expect to win comfortably, as a Republican might in a state that Trump won by 16 points, don’t agree to a second debate with upstart challengers.
uncertain
Trump → expect → challengers
Marshall faces off against Hamilton on Oct. 21.
5.
asserted
Marshall → face → Oct.
Democrats know how to win in Kansas.
asserted
Democrats → know → Kansas
They fight local and shun the national party, leaving donkeys and their party name off their adverts, for example, and move to the center.
asserted
They → fight → center
That’s how they have managed to hold the governor’s office so frequently.
asserted
they → ’ → office
Hamilton’s status as founder of a megachurch gives him powerful name recognition.
asserted
status → give → recognition
He was known long before he entered politics.
asserted
he → know → politics
Today, his network of 24,000 members, spread across nine sites and with 22 services every Sunday, is a useful force multiplier.
asserted
network → spread → services
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) attacked Hamilton for some of his teachings that non-Christians might be able to go to Heaven.
uncertain
Christians → attack → Heaven
More than two-thirds of Kansans say they are Christian, and they may not respond well to their faith being sucked into political squabbling.
uncertain
faith → say → squabbling
What does it all mean?
asserted
it → mean → What
Marshall is still the clear favorite according to the prediction markets.
uncertain
Marshall → accord → markets
He is running at 71% on Kalshi, compared with 29% for Hamilton.
asserted
He → run → Hamilton
It is way down the list of states that Democrats hope to flip.
asserted
Democrats → hope → that
It’s just that stranger things have happened.
asserted
things → ’ → ?
A steady stream of beautiful steers made their way, reluctantly at times, through the sales ring as ranchers looked them over and an auctioneer kept up an incomprehensible (to outsiders at least) commentary on bids offered and sales made.
Kansas is one of the most important beef producers in the country.
asserted
Kansas → make → country
But ranchers here have been buffeted by high diesel prices, raids on meat packing plants, and rising land prices.
asserted
ranchers → buffet → plants
Plenty blame the Trump administration.
asserted
Plenty → blame → administration
Secrets spent Wednesday with them to find out whether they would be taking their pain out on Republicans in the midterms.
asserted
they → spend → midterms
The Rev. Adam Hamilton knows what’s the matter with Kansas: E.J. Dionne Jr. offers the case from the left.
asserted
Jr. → know → left
…and 4 more, not listed.
The Aporia
