UK population growth is estimated to have slowed to its lowest rate outside the Covid-19 pandemic since 1998, figures show.
asserted
figures → estimate → 1998
The sharp slowdown is mostly because of the ongoing fall in net migration, which has dropped rapidly since hitting record levels in 2023.
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which → drop → 2023
While there continues to be slightly more births than deaths in the UK, the gap between the two has narrowed.
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gap → continue → two
The four countries of the UK are showing different trends, with Wales seeing its first drop in population for a decade, Scotland and Northern Ireland experiencing almost no growth, and only England showing a small increase.
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England → show → increase
The total population of the UK stood at an estimated 69.5 million people in mid-2025, up by 227,665 on the previous 12 months, according to figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
uncertain
population → stand → Statistics
This is a rise of just 0.33%, which is the lowest annual rate of increase since 1998, excluding the pandemic-affected year of 2020.
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which → exclude → 2020
It comes after a sequence of much larger jumps in population of 1.05% in 2022, 1.34% in 2023 and 0.97% in 2024.
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It → come → 2024
These were caused by a spike in net international migration to the UK, which is the difference between the number of people moving long-term into the country and those emigrating abroad.
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which → cause → country
Net migration in the year to mid-2025 is estimated to be 222,900, down steeply from 651,700 in the previous 12 months.
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migration → estimate → months
Some 652,400 births took place in the year to mid-2025, the lowest for more than four decades, the ONS said.
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ONS → take → decades
There were 647,500 deaths over the same period, meaning natural change – the difference between births and deaths – contributed an increase to the UK population of only 4,900.
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change → be → 4,900
This is lower than the previous year, when natural change stood at 16,200.
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change → stand → 16,200
But it is higher than the 12 months to mid-2023, when there were more deaths than births in the UK, resulting in negative net change of minus 16,300.
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it → be → 16,300
Projections published earlier this year by the ONS suggested deaths could outnumber births each year in the UK from 2026 onwards.
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deaths → publish → 2026
They also showed population growth continuing to slow and then come to a halt, with the size of the UK population starting to fall in the mid-2050s.
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size → show → mid-2050s
The ONS projections were based on current and past trends, particularly the recent fall in net migration and lower fertility rates.
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projections → base → migration
This means they are not forecasts or predictions, and do not take into account what may or may not happen in the future.
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what → mean → future
A number of factors are likely to have caused the recent drop in net migration.
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number → cause → migration
There has been a decline in people from outside the European Union coming to the UK for work-related reasons.
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people → come → reasons
This follows policy changes introduced by the previous Conservative government and continued by the current Labour administration, which have tightened the rules for coming to the country for employment.
There have also been fewer arrivals in the UK through official humanitarian resettlement schemes, as well as an increase in people moving out of the country.
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which → follow → country
While England saw its population grow by an estimated 0.39% in the year to June 2025, Scotland and Northern Ireland both saw almost no annual growth, at 0.04% and 0.03% respectively.
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Scotland → see → %
The estimated population of Wales fell by 0.09%: the first year on year drop since 2015.
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population → fall → 2015
This is because the population of both countries is older on average than in England or Northern Ireland, leading to a slightly higher rate of deaths and lower rate of births, the ONS said.
“The average number of children that are born to women in Wales and Scotland is also lower than the rest of the UK, which contributes to fewer births,” the agency added.
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agency → lead → births
Net international migration contributed to population growth in all four countries, but this was more than offset in Wales by the level of negative natural change – more deaths than births – which is why the overall population here is estimated to have fallen.
The ONS has also published figures showing the estimated population change in each local authority area.
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ONS → contribute → area
Of 361 authorities in the UK, 257 (71%) saw an increase in population between mid-2024 and mid-2025, while 104 (29%) saw a fall.
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104 → see → fall
Rugby in Warwickshire saw the biggest percentage rise (up 2.39%), followed by Mid Suffolk (2.05%), Tewkesbury in Gloucestershire (2.01%) and South Derbyshire (1.94%).
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Rugby → see → Gloucestershire
The Isles of Scilly saw the largest decrease (down 3.52%), followed by the London boroughs of Camden (down 1.77%) and Westminster (down 1.54%), then Lincoln (down 1.51%).
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Isles → see → Camden
In Scotland, the area with highest percentage increase in population was East Lothian (up 1.11%) and Clackmannanshire saw the largest fall (down 0.69%).
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Clackmannanshire → see → fall
Newport had the biggest increase in Wales (up 0.70%) and Merthyr Tydfil the greatest fall (down 0.61%), while in Northern Ireland, Lisburn & Castlereagh had the largest rise (up 0.46%) and Mid Ulster had the biggest decrease (down 0.28%).
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Ulster → have → decrease
The Aporia
