In short:
The CBA chief executive says he believes the RBA is done hiking interest rates but a lot will depend on the next round of quarterly inflation data.
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lot → say → data
Matt Comyn says house prices will bounce back once interest rates drop and reducing regulation will improve the nation's productivity.
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reducing → say → productivity
The next round of inflation data is released at the end of October and the RBA meets on November 3.
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RBA → release → November
The chief executive of Australia's largest bank, Matt Comyn, says CBA believes the Reserve Bank has finished hiking interest rates for now, but the board's November meeting is "live" and another rise remains a possibility.
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rise → say → rates
Speaking with the ABC's Alan Kohler, the Commonwealth Bank chief executive said the next movement of the RBA would depend on the quarterly inflation data released at the end of the month.
"We believe that's the last [rate rise], but certainly I think the last meeting of this calendar year is live," he said.
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he → speak → year
"We see and feel … the impact of higher rates.
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We → see → rates
We feel that customers obviously are feeling the increasing burden from higher rates.
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customers → feel → rates
Mr Comyn said the September hike was needed due to rising inflationary pressures from global forces such as the Middle East conflict and fuel price rises.
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hike → say → conflict
He said cost-of-living pressures were affecting different cohorts of CBA customers in different ways.
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pressures → say → ways
"We're seeing … where people are exposed particularly to higher borrowing costs and higher mortgages, a reduction in spending in some instances, [a] reduction in terms of savings," he said.
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he → see → savings
"I think households are feeling the pressure.
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households → think → pressure
We saw an increase in, for example, the proportion of customers that are requiring financial assistance or struggling to meet repayments.
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that → see → repayments
"There are some subsectors, let's say in business, which are starting to feel the pressure of less consumer and household demand and expenditure."
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which → be → demand
Comyn says housing will bounce back
But there have been pockets of hope, with the bank seeing a 13 per cent growth in business lending across the 2026 financial year.
Doubtful debts were also still low and "well below where you would expect the average to be", mostly because unemployment was still low, he said.
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he → say → year
Housing is also an area of optimism, with Mr Comyn predicting Australia's tanking property prices will bounce back.
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prices → predict → optimism
He recalled that when interest rates last peaked in 2023, house prices fell nationally by 8.2 per cent, and compared it to current predictions of an estimated 10 per cent drop.
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prices → recall → drop
"I seem to remember considerably less focus on house prices during that time.
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I → seem → time
But yes, I do think house prices will weaken over the course of this year," he said.
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he → think → year
Consequently, he said, if interest rates reduced through next year as expected, property prices would pick up again in line with rising demand that was also bolstered by a "structural undersupply of housing".
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that → say → housing
I think it's 57 per cent of household wealth in the country," he said.
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he → think → country
"The biggest issue over the long term is our inability to grow productivity in terms of the production of housing.
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issue → grow → housing
"
Reduce regulation to grow the pie
Mr Comyn added his voice to calls for Australia to boost its productivity, saying a rate of 3 per cent compared to 2 per cent made "a really big difference".
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rate → reduce → difference
"Productivity is what enables you to earn on an ongoing basis the income to be able to support improvement in in living standards," he said.
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he → enable → standards
He said this was achieved through housing, low-cost energy, skills, migration and technological advancements including AI.
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this → say → AI
"We need to make it easier for small businesses or new businesses to be created that are successful and productive.
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that → need → ?
And I think that's very hard in the current context," he said.
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he → think → context
"Where I would be focusing on most is all on the supply-side reform.
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focusing → focus → reform
How do we reduce layers of approvals?
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we → reduce → approvals
How do we reduce layers of, in some areas, regulation?
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we → reduce → regulation
How do we accelerate a number of those processes.
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we → accelerate → processes
"It's much easier to distribute a growing pie than one that isn't.
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that → distribute → one
The federation is a bad business
Mr Comyn said fragmentation across both the Commonwealth and the states was particularly problematic in the context of regulation.
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fragmentation → say → regulation
"It's the same inside a company; you're often adding an extra control, an extra process," he said.
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he → add → control
"It's much harder to actually look at the totality and work out whether there's complete coherence, if there's anything there that's waste.
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that → look → totality
"If the federation was a company, I don't think you'd invest in it."
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you → think → it
Mr Comyn said there were examples where the states were working very constructively with the Commonwealth but said there needed to be "real urgency across a number of these topics".
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states → say → topics
The banking boss said worried about the federal government running deficits "particularly at this point in time".
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government → worry → time
"Typically over a decade, there's times when the economic conditions are better and you should be able to run a surplus," he said.
"
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he → be → surplus
You're then creating fiscal capacity and degrees of freedom for some form of exogenous shock
"
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You → create → shock
We're seeing a big increase in fiscal deficits around the world.
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We → see → world
…and 10 more, not listed.
The Aporia
