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Shingles plummets among younger adults but is mysteriously rising in another group

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Sullivan, K. (2026, October 2). Shingles plummets among younger adults but is mysteriously rising in another group. NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/young-adults-shingles-cases-down-chickenpox-vaccine-rcna600577

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NBC News · collected 2026-10-02 · by Kaitlin Sullivan

Quick Summary

A new analysis indicates that the chickenpox vaccine may be reducing cases of shingles among younger adults. Researchers from Epic found a significant decline in shingles diagnoses between 2019 and 2026 for people aged 34 and under, with rates dropping by more than half in some age groups. For example, women aged 25 to 29 saw a decrease from 7.7 per 10,000 to 3.2 cases, while men in the same group dropped from 7.5 to 3.0 cases. However, there is an observed increase in shingles among another age group that remains unexplained.
Written by AI on 2026-10-02, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

New data indicates that cases of shingles are declining among younger adults who received the chickenpox vaccine as children. According to a study by Epic Research using electronic health records from over 85 million patients, individuals aged 34 and younger have a lower risk of developing shingles compared to previous generations. This trend is attributed to widespread vaccination against the varicella zoster virus, which causes both chickenpox and shingles. However, researchers observed an unexpected rise in shingles cases among another group, suggesting that further investigation is needed to understand this phenomenon fully. Dr. Anne Gershon from Columbia University noted that while chickenpox usually clears up within a couple of weeks, it can lead to complications such as shingles later in life if the virus reactivates.

Written for “Shingles Vaccine Effectiveness” on 2026-11-03, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Shingles Vaccine Effectiveness
Health · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

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Claims extracted
30
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
23%
7 of 30 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
60/100
NBC News's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Health
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-02 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

NBC News · 2014 article(s) · 1 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 1 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Kaitlin Sullivan
3 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Not all people with signs of CTE in the brain go on to experience cognitive decline or dementia, and some people may never experience symptoms at all.
🔮 However, new data suggests that a steep decline in chickenpox cases over the last three decades, thanks to the chickenpox vaccine, may contribute to a decline in shingles in the coming years.
🔮 “You’ll see a spike and then a bit of a decline, but often those trends will go back to wherever the trend was heading in the first place, and there was already an increasing trend before the pandemic.”
Also by Kaitlin Sullivan
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.

Topics

Epic Epic Research The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention The Food and Drug Administration the United States

Subjects

Curhan PERSON · 2× Epic ORG · 2× Bertelt PERSON · 1× CDC ORG · 1× Epic Research ORG · 1× Kersten Bartelt PERSON · 1× Sharon Curhan PERSON · 1× The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ORG · 1× The Food and Drug Administration ORG · 1× the United States GPE · 1×

Narrative

Both shingles and chickenpox usually clear up on their own within a couple of weeks, although the virus that causes both infections can cause serious complications, said Dr. Anne Gershon, a professor emeritus of pediatrics at Columbia University medical school, who was not involved in the research.
framing: mixed · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-02
🔮 However, new data suggests that a steep decline in chickenpox cases over the last three decades, thanks to the chickenpox vaccine, may contribute to a decline in shingles in the coming years.

Claims (30 extracted, 7 hedged)

The chickenpox vaccine appears to protect against shingles, according to a large new analysis. uncertain
vaccine → appear → analysis
Anyone who got infected with chickenpox as a child is at risk of later developing shingles, a painful, blistering rash that usually appears on one side of the body. asserted
that → infect → body
For unknown reasons, cases of shingles have been gradually rising, even among younger adults, research has shown. asserted
research → rise → adults
However, new data suggests that a steep decline in chickenpox cases over the last three decades, thanks to the chickenpox vaccine, may contribute to a decline in shingles in the coming years. uncertain
decline → suggest → years
New data suggests that people ages 34 and younger may be less likely to develop shingles than previous generations. uncertain
people → suggest → generations
That’s because they are more likely to have been vaccinated against the varicella zoster virus, or chickenpox, which can reactivate years later as shingles. asserted
which → ’ → shingles
“Our data suggest that trend is now reversing in the very youngest adults, the first generation eligible to be vaccinated against chickenpox as children,” said registered nurse Kersten Bartelt, lead author of the report from Epic Research, which conducts research on health trends. asserted
which → suggest → trends
Epic researchers used electronic health data from more than 85 million patients seen by healthcare providers in the United States. asserted
researchers → use → States
They logged shingles diagnoses between 2019 and 2026 and how many cases occurred in different age groups. asserted
cases → log → groups
The report, which was released Friday, found: - Shingles cases dropped from 10.8 to 7.3 per 10,000 people for women ages 30 to 34 between 2019 and 2026, and fell from 11 to 7.3 for men in the same age group. asserted
cases → release → group
- Among 25- to 29-year-olds, rates of shingles cases more than halved, from 7.7 per 10,000 women and 7.5 per 10,000 men in 2019 to 3.2 and 3.0, respectively. asserted
rates → halve → 3.2
- In 18- to 24-year-olds, shingles dropped from 2.9 to 1.6 per 10,000 women and from 2.7 to 2.4 per 10,000 men. asserted
shingles → drop → men
It’s a promising development, though because shingles is typically rare in people younger than 50, the data can’t prove whether the protection will last as they age, Bertelt said. asserted
Bertelt → ’ → 50
Still, the new data suggests potential lifelong benefits of chickenpox vaccination. uncertain
data → suggest → vaccination
The Food and Drug Administration approved the first chickenpox vaccine in 1995, when it was added to the childhood vaccination schedule. asserted
it → approve → schedule
In 1997, states began requiring it for school and daycare. asserted
states → begin → school
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention currently recommends two doses of the varicella vaccine for children from ages 1 to 6. asserted
Centers → recommend → 6
Since then, infections have plummeted by 97%, according to the CDC. uncertain
infections → plummet → CDC
A type of herpes virus that once killed as many as 150 children a year, chickenpox has been virtually wiped out by vaccination, experts say. asserted
experts → kill → vaccination
“People who have had the chickenpox virus have a higher risk of developing shingles,” said Dr. Sharon Curhan, a physician and epidemiologist at Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School in Boston, who was not involved in the study. asserted
who → have → study
“People who got the vaccine, while they could get shingles, are at much lower risk. uncertain
they → get → risk
Why is shingles increasing among millennials? asserted
shingles → increase → millennials
The Epic data also showed that rates of shingles are rising among people 35 and over, who are more likely to have had the chickenpox infection as children. asserted
who → show → children
There’s no clear evidence for what’s causing the rise in this group, but, ironically, it could be linked to the near elimination of the varicella zoster virus, experts say. uncertain
experts → ’ → virus
“Before the vaccine was available, parents in their 20s, 30s, 40s, and grandparents, were exposed to younger children with chickenpox, so that was like a booster for them,” Curhan said. asserted
Curhan → expose → them
Other potential causes are higher rates of chronic stress, depression and anxiety, as well as autoimmune diseases, which weaken the immune system, Curhan said. asserted
Curhan → weaken → system
Both shingles and chickenpox usually clear up on their own within a couple of weeks, although the virus that causes both infections can cause serious complications, said Dr. Anne Gershon, a professor emeritus of pediatrics at Columbia University medical school, who was not involved in the research. asserted
who → clear → research
The most common is severe long-term nerve pain, a condition called postherpetic neuralgia. asserted
common → call → ?
If a shingles outbreak occurs close to the eye, it can cause blindness, Bartelt said. asserted
Bartelt → occur → blindness
Shingles infections have also been linked to a 20% higher risk of cognitive decline — potentially because the virus can reactivate in the head rather than cause a skin rash, said Gershon — as well as increased risk of stroke and heart disease. asserted
Gershon → link → stroke
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