The Republican Party spent $40 million to throw an unprecedented midterm convention in Texas a few weeks ago.
asserted
Party → spend → Texas
It was a bet born of desperation.
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It → bear → desperation
With Democrats dominating the midterm polling all year and leading across nearly every competitive Senate race, the GOP went all in on the spectacle, hoping a polling bounce would shock its campaign back to life.
asserted
bounce → dominate → life
Party conventions in recent cycles typically produce a 1- to 2.5-point bounce — a modest margin, but big enough to potentially save the Senate.
asserted
conventions → produce → Senate
It just went to the wrong party.
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It → go → party
On Sept. 9, the first day of the two-day Trump-a-ganza, the RealClearPolitics generic congressional vote average had Democrats ahead by 6 points.
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Democrats → have → points
A week later, their lead ballooned to 8.7 points.
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lead → balloon → points
Ken Paxton, the Republican Senate nominee in Texas, said the obvious out loud at a private gathering of conservative donors and lobbyists last week.
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Paxton → say → donors
According to audio obtained by the New York Times, he admitted the convention had backfired:
uncertain
convention → accord → Times
“So to be honest with you, the numbers — when we did that convention — it dropped our numbers.
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it → do → numbers
Everybody’s numbers dropped.
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numbers → drop → ?
Paxton, one of the worst Senate nominees a major party has put up in recent memory, was understandably eager to deflect blame.
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party → put → blame
Dogged by corruption scandals and stricken with the charisma of a lamppost, Paxton trails progressive Democratic state Rep. James Talarico by 3 points on the RealClearPolitics average.
asserted
Paxton → dog → average
After beating incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in the primary with the help of President Donald Trump, Paxton has run a campaign so moribund that national Republicans have had to bail him out, putting at risk what should have been a safe seat in a deep-red state.
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what → beat → state
Paxton’s failing campaign was a central reason the convention landed in Texas, but far from the only reason the GOP held one.
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GOP → fail → one
Republican nominees are cratering around the country, and the White House’s bet was that a convention starring Trump could turn out the voters who show up for him but not for anyone else.
uncertain
who → cratere → anyone
“I’m asking you to pretend that I’m on the ballot — I’m on the ballot — just one more time,” Trump said in his nearly two-hour keynote address.
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Trump → ask → address
Voters in Texas and beyond considered the president’s request — and thought, “Well, when you put it that way, hell no.”
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you → consider → it
Polls immediately began showing they were even less enthusiastic about voting Republican this fall.
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they → begin → Republican
It’s no mystery why.
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It → ’ → ?
Trump’s disapproval rating is higher than it was after the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol, and three-quarters of Americans rate the nation’s economy as “poor.”
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quarters → rate → economy
The idea behind the convention — make the midterm elections all about Trump — flew in the face of all available evidence and common sense.
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elections → make → evidence
In one respect, it’s easy to see why the event’s architects structured it the way they did.
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they → ’ → it
In the past, multi-hour events devoted to celebrating Trump energized the base and even encouraged some fence-sitters to hop down and join the party.
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events → devote → party
It doesn’t want to be told how great its president is doing; it wants to hear how the president and his party plan to do things better.
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president → want → things
It doesn’t want to close its eyes and sway to Lee Greenwood singing “God Bless the USA” — a ritual that has lost all of its countercultural magic in an era of Trump rule.
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that → want → rule
And it really doesn’t want to hear Trump’s greatest hits in a two-hour speech that no one who isn’t already voting Republican listened to for more than a few minutes.
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who → want → minutes
The failure of the convention reflects the limits of Trump as a politician.
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failure → reflect → politician
He performs masterfully as the change agent — that’s why he’s still promising to “demolish the deep state” in new, and probably illegal, taxpayer-funded ads.
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he → perform → ads
When Trump is the tip of the spear aimed at the establishment, his swagger reads as strength and his certainty as courage.
But when he is the establishment, those qualities translate differently.
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qualities → aim → courage
His swagger reads as arrogance, his certainty as delusion.
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swagger → read → delusion
What Trump lacks so plainly is empathy: the ability, as Bill Clinton once famously put it, to “feel your pain.”
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Clinton → lack → pain
It’s so alien to him that he doesn’t even try to fake it.
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he → ’ → it
Trump is constitutionally incapable of feeling anyone’s pain over the state of the economy he oversees because Trump economies don’t cause pain.
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economies → feel → pain
They are “the greatest” — “you’ve never seen anything like it” — and America is “the hottest country in the world.”
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America → see → world
In his mind, if he’s running something, it can’t be anything but perfect; it can only be unappreciated.
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it → run → something
The problem is that this political context cries out for humility.
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context → cry → humility
The very last thing Republicans need is a victory celebration.
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Republicans → need → ?
But that’s exactly what the convention broadcast to the country for six hours on primetime in early September.
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convention → ’ → September
Democrats couldn’t have drawn it up better if they’d tried.
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they → draw → it
…and 16 more, not listed.
The Aporia
