Republicans are headed for a rough reckoning next month.
asserted
Republicans → head → reckoning
Persistent inflation, record fuel prices, and widespread disapproval of the war with Iran have soured the outlook for the GOP.
asserted
inflation → sour → GOP
According to the latest Wall Street Journal poll, President Donald Trump’s 37% approval rating is the lowest for any president since 1990.
uncertain
rating → accord → 1990
That comparison rang alarm bells with me.
asserted
comparison → ring → me
We started the year optimistic about chipping away at the Democratic majority in the House.
asserted
We → start → House
Early that year, our polling revealed a budding anti-tax, anti-incumbent mood.
asserted
polling → reveal → mood
It was driven by a recession, a financial crisis in the savings-and-loan industry, and perceptions of corruption in the Democratic leadership.
asserted
It → drive → leadership
By focusing on the Democrats’ woes, we hoped to defy the history of midterm losses for the party holding the White House.
asserted
we → focus → House
With luck, we might even expand on the GOP’s 175 seats in the House.
uncertain
we → expand → House
JFK and Ronald Reagan had both picked up House seats in midterm elections.
asserted
JFK → pick → elections
Bush’s 1988 campaign promise not to raise taxes positioned him to benefit from the anti-tax mood.
asserted
promise → raise → mood
I was at the Republican National Convention in New Orleans when he made his famous, “Read my lips, no new taxes!” pledge to the delegates.
asserted
he → make → delegates
But in the spring of 1990, Bush broke that promise and joined congressional Democrats to support a tax increase.
asserted
Bush → break → increase
Bush’s flip-flop badly demoralized the GOP base.
asserted
flop → demoralize → base
We had 17 open GOP seats to defend and another 23 incumbents we ranked vulnerable.
asserted
we → have → seats
Without warning, Bush made losing most of our vulnerable incumbents and open GOP seats highly probable.
asserted
losing → make → incumbents
The only way to curb GOP losses was to put distance between Republicans on the midterm ballot and the White House.
asserted
way → curb → ballot
I put together a five-page strategy paper titled “The Tax Revolt of 1990.”
asserted
I → put → 1990
I argued that the GOP’s congressional wing should spearhead the anti-incumbent, anti-tax public mood by openly opposing Bush’s tax increase.
asserted
wing → argue → increase
Cautioning that it might require “a near Civil War within the Republican Party’s divergent governing coalitions,” I argued that we should “focus populist resentment” against “Harvard… the country club, the elite, intellectuals, the bankers and Wall Street.”
uncertain
we → caution → Harvard
My eye was on the long-term possibilities of the simmering anti-incumbent mood.
asserted
eye → simmer → mood
If we could position GOP House members as anti-tax and hold down our 1990 losses, we might be able to flip the House in a future election if the mood turned into a wave.
uncertain
mood → position → wave
The memo concluded with a warning that “if we fall in line with the Senate, the House Democrats, and the White House, we sideline ourselves for the rest of the century.”
asserted
we → conclude → century
NRCC co-chairman Edward J. Rollins, Jr., sent a memo to all GOP congressional candidates encouraging them to distance themselves from Bush’s tax increase.
asserted
Jr. → send → increase
But our results spoke for themselves.
asserted
results → speak → themselves
That November, the GOP lost a mere eight House races, one of the lowest midterm losses for a party in the White House.
asserted
GOP → lose → House
As the anti-tax and anti-incumbent wave grew, the GOP picked up nine seats in 1992 and finally took control of the House in 1994 for the first time in fifty years.
asserted
GOP → grow → years
When the president becomes political kryptonite in all but the safest GOP strongholds, create distance.
asserted
president → become → distance
Don’t let groups operating inside the Beltway define your candidacy with their advertising and social media messaging, especially if it ties you too closely to Trump.
asserted
it → let → Trump
Campaign on a pledge to represent your constituents in Washington and address the pocketbook issues that matter most to them right now.
asserted
that → campaign → them
Allowing yourself to be positioned as a foot-soldier for Trump will only galvanize voters against you.
asserted
yourself → allow → you
That doesn’t mean you can’t support the president at all.
asserted
you → mean → president
Embrace those, but not at the cost of staking out an independent identity and addressing issues that matter in your district.
asserted
that → embrace → district
Let voters know what you stand for, but also remind them what happens if the Democrats take the House: open borders, woke excesses, and more inflation from their blow-out spending.
asserted
Democrats → let → spending
Your goal is to make the election a choice between you and your Democratic opponent, not between Trump and the Democratic Party.
asserted
election → make → Trump
If you are running in a competitive race and it becomes a referendum on Trump, you’ll be the loser.
asserted
you → run → Trump
John B. Roberts II served in the Reagan White House and was an international political strategist and executive producer of The McLaughlin Group.
asserted
II → serve → Group
The Aporia
