- Published
When Kemi Badenoch arrived for her first Conservative conference as leader last year, a member of her entourage overheard somebody wonder aloud: "Who's that?"
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that → publish → entourage
This baffled member of the public was actually working at the Conservative conference.
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member → work → conference
It is an anecdote which underlines the scale of the challenge Badenoch faced at that conference, an event her allies are now with distance willing to acknowledge was make or break for her leadership.
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allies → underline → leadership
And it is an anecdote which also underlines that, far from break her, that conference represented the start of a major turnaround for Badenoch.
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conference → underline → Badenoch
Twelve months on, Badenoch will arrive in Birmingham this weekend in total command of a party whose leading lights are beginning to permit themselves the occasional flicker of optimism after years of misery preparing for, and then experiencing, a brutal election defeat.
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lights → arrive → defeat
Yet for all that Conservatives now believe their leader is an electoral asset, they still face an existential threat from Reform UK and the challenge of how to adjust their strategy to face a new prime minister, Andy Burnham.
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they → believe → minister
"Stronger economy, stronger country" will be the party's conference slogan, with the two speeches Badenoch gives - one on Sunday, the other on Wednesday - building on announcements she has made in the past two weeks about cutting benefits for the long-term unemployed.
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she → give → unemployed
Welfare spending is increasingly seen by the Conservatives as a core battleground with Labour.
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spending → see → Labour
During Labour conference they derided the event as the "Welfare Party Conference".
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they → deride → Conference
Whereas Sir Keir Starmer sought to cut welfare spending before backing down in the face of a rebellion by his own MPs, Burnham has made clear that he believes the way to reduce the benefits bill in the long-term is more up-front investment in support for those out of work.
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way → seek → work
This is a clear ideological difference which both parties are happy to embrace.
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parties → embrace → which
Conservative strategists believe there is a broader lesson there.
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strategists → believe → ?
"The differences between the parties have been quite muddled for a while," one says.
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one → say → while
"Now that Burnham is prime minister we have a more traditional left-right split."
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we → have → split
Another area where Badenoch will embrace that divide in the coming days is the pensions triple-lock.
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Badenoch → embrace → days
The policy currently guarantees the state pension goes up each year in line with either inflation, wage increases, or 2.5% – whichever is the highest.
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whichever → guarantee → inflation
Badenoch will make clear that the Conservatives continue to support that policy in its current form, breaking with some generally supportive think tanks and policy experts who believe Badenoch should follow Burnham's lead.
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Badenoch → make → lead
In his conference speech on Tuesday, Burnham set out plans to end the existing triple lock from 2030, so the state pension increases at least by inflation or 2.5% - but remove the automatic annual link with average earnings.
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pension → set → earnings
The Conservatives hope the sharpening left-right split leaves Reform UK in a strategic bind, occupying a less obvious place on that spectrum.
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split → hope → spectrum
A year ago some senior Conservatives feared being usurped by Reform as the leading party of the right was a near-inevitability, but now they are optimistic that Nigel Farage's party is on an inexorable slide.
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party → fear → slide
That bullishness is fuelled in large part by the difficulties Reform has faced over Nigel Farage's £5m gift from Christopher Harborne and the fallout - including a police inquiry - from the recent Channel 4 News investigation.
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Reform → fuel → investigation
"I find more and more voters raise concerns about Reform with me - people who weren't previously giving us the time of day," one MP said.
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MP → find → day
"These are successful people with big garages and good jobs who do not necessarily pay that much attention but want a small-c conservative government.
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who → pay → government
"They were switching to Reform because they were fed up with us and thought Farage was now the main option on the right.
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Farage → switch → right
But they are starting to come back.
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they → start → ?
"
Others are less positive, pointing out that Reform still often record higher shares than the Conservatives in the polls — and more importantly have now won far more votes than them in successive years of local and national elections.
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Reform → point → elections
Whether or not there is indeed a long-term trend of the Conservatives regaining ground at Reform's expense, Badenoch may not have long enough to wait.
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Badenoch → be → long
She has told her team to prepare for this conference as if it is the last before the general election.
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it → tell → election
While not all of her aides agree, Badenoch is convinced that Burnham will go to the polls within the next year.
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Burnham → agree → year
Party high command started weekly election planning meetings shortly after Burnham succeeded Starmer.
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Burnham → start → Starmer
Neil O'Brien, a member of Badenoch's shadow cabinet, has begun work on a manifesto alongside the party's head of policy.
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O'Brien → begin → policy
It is intended to be a more concise set of pledges than the usual sprawling manifestos.
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It → intend → manifestos
Also with an eye to the election, the Conservatives will present new faces at the conference who have applied to be candidates at the next election.
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who → present → election
Badenoch's ambivalence in some cases, and opposition in others, to ex-MPs who lost their seats in 2024 standing for the party again has attracted some controversy, especially when it comes to the high-profile former cabinet ministers Grant Shapps and Penny Mordaunt.
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it → lose → ministers
The leader's supporters are unrepentant, arguing that the party "needs to show we have changed".
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we → argue → ?
Things have certainly changed since last year, at least.
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Things → change → year
That may prove the easy part.
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That → prove → ?
The Aporia
