This July, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins spent four days and 450 miles (725km) wending his way down the Yukon River in a 24-ft Alweld skiff, a flat-bottomed aluminum boat built for shallow Alaska rivers.
asserted
Tomkins → spend → rivers
Starting in Koyukon Athabascan country, he passed through Indigenous Deg Hit’an communities like Anvik, before ending among the Yup’ik villages of the lower river, Russian Mission and Pilot Station among them.
asserted
he → start → them
The boat carried him through 11 villages – some only reachable by water or small plane, and most with fewer than 300 residents, and fewer still who could recall the last time they had seen a candidate for Alaska governor, Republican, Democrat or independent.
uncertain
they → carry → governor
The 37-year-old former state representative is hopping on snowmachines – only people in the lower 48 call them snowmobiles – as well as boats and floatplanes to accomplish what Alaska Democrats have failed to do for nearly a generation: win the governor’s office.
asserted
Democrats → hop → office
“Alaskans are hungry for change,” Kreiss-Tomkins said.
asserted
Tomkins → say → change
“We’ve been running the same campaign since we launched in February, and I don’t take anyone’s vote for granted.”
asserted
I → run → vote
Just two years after Donald Trump carried Alaska by 13 points, his approval rating there has collapsed – a net 21- to 22-point swing, among the steepest drops in any reliably Republican state he won.
asserted
he → carry → state
In August, Kreiss-Tomkins came in first ahead of his Democratic and Republican rivals in the state’s nonpartisan primary.
asserted
Tomkins → come → primary
Now, “JKT”, as he’s known in his home town of Sitka, is betting that an old-fashioned exercise in retail politics – traveling the vast expanse of a state larger than Texas, California and Montana combined and asking voters for their support in person – will help him do it again in November.
asserted
him → know → November
But a question looms over the race: how much of his strength is a reflection of the changing national political environment, and Americans’ broad dissatisfaction with Trump, and how much is particular to the candidates, personalities and particular electoral system of the last frontier?
asserted
much → loom → frontier
Unlike nearly every other US state, Alaska no longer holds a traditional party primary followed by a winner-take-all general election.
asserted
Alaska → hold → election
Under the ranked-choice voting system adopted by voters in 2020, the top four candidates from an open primary advance to the general election.
asserted
candidates → rank → election
Voters then rank candidates in order of preference, and votes can transfer to their next-ranked candidate as lower-placed contenders are eliminated.
asserted
contenders → rank → candidate
Though reliably Republican, the state has a long independent streak.
asserted
state → have → streak
The outgoing governor, Mike Dunleavy, an early supporter of Trump, leaves office deeply unpopular, largely for his unfulfilled promise to increase the amount of oil-dividend money Alaskans are given each year; in 2026, every eligible Alaskan received $1,000, with an additional $200 energy relief payment.
asserted
Alaskan → leave → payment
This localized frustration coupled with Trump’s sagging approval ratings, particularly on the economy, has created a potential opening for Democrats.
asserted
frustration → couple → Democrats
A recent bipartisan AARP poll found Kreiss-Tomkins winning 40% of first-choice preferences, compared with a combined 41% for his three Republican opponents, Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson and Treg Taylor, all of whom will appear on Alaska’s general election ballot.
asserted
all → find → ballot
Kreiss-Tomkins grew up in Sitka, a fishing town of 8,500 where compromise is required.
asserted
compromise → grow → 8,500
It’s wedged among the spruce and hemlock of the Tongass national forest and the open swell of the north Pacific, where you can’t escape political opponents in a town with just 14 miles of coastal road, accessible only by water or air.
asserted
you → wedge → water
He entered politics in 2012, at the age of 22, winning a statehouse seat by defeating the Republican incumbent by 32 votes.
asserted
He → enter → votes
“JKT is the clear frontrunner for governor not because of anything Trump did, but because he’s running a good campaign,” said Larry Persily, who has watched Alaska politics since the 1970s, first as the owner of the Wrangell Sentinel newspaper and later as an editorial page editor at the Anchorage Daily News.
asserted
who → do → News
“He’s energized a lot of young people.
asserted
He → energize → people
The Republicans just put up a bunch of political losers.”
asserted
Republicans → put → losers
Wilson, the top-finishing Republican candidate, would disagree.
asserted
Wilson → finish → ?
The Anchorage garbage-hauling entrepreneur, who finished third in August’s primary, is a former competitive figure skater and the great-niece of the late Republican governor Wally Hickel.
asserted
who → haul → governor
She has secured endorsements from the Arkansas governor, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, one of Trump’s press secretaries during his first term, and Alaska’s own Republican congressman, Nick Begich – along with Byron Donalds, the Florida congressman running to succeed Ron DeSantis as governor there.
asserted
She → secure → governor
Wilson casts Kreiss-Tomkins’s decade in elected office, and his elite educational background – he dropped out of Yale University in 2011, one credit short of graduating – as liabilities.
asserted
he → cast → liabilities
“Alaskans are looking for fresh leadership from the private sector,” she said in an emailed statement.
asserted
she → look → statement
“Not another ‘experienced’ politician who will wreck our energy economy, raise taxes, continue to fail us on the PFD [permanent fund dividend], and sell out Alaska to advance their career.”
asserted
who → wreck → career
Wilson’s relationship with one of her Republican rivals is tangled: she chaired Bronson’s 2020 campaign for Anchorage mayor.
asserted
she → tangle → mayor
He won, arrived in office as a political newcomer, then spent his single term fighting the assembly over homelessness – at one point floating one-way plane tickets to the lower 48 for people living on the street – before losing re-election to the independent Suzanne LaFrance in 2024.
asserted
He → win → 2024
The former state attorney general was elevated to the final slot after Tom Begich withdrew and endorsed Kreiss-Tomkins, only to be disqualified four days later over an undeclared rental income disclosure; briefly replaced by his own running mate; then reinstated after a department of law review – conducted by the office he used to run – found trivial but, he claimed, similar issues among dozens of other candidates.
asserted
he → elevate → candidates
The three Republicans’ competing campaigns have prompted efforts to consolidate conservative support behind Wilson.
asserted
campaigns → compete → Wilson
Alaska’s electoral history offers a precedent.
asserted
history → offer → precedent
In 1994, Democrat Tony Knowles won the governorship by just 536 votes after the conservative vote split between Republican nominee Jim Campbell and Jack Coghill, the sitting lieutenant governor, who ran on the Alaskan independence party ticket.
asserted
who → win → ticket
Knowles, the last Democrat elected to the office, went on to serve two terms.
asserted
Knowles → elect → terms
The governor’s race is unfolding against a national backdrop of declining approval for Trump.
asserted
race → unfold → Trump
A Reuters/Ipsos poll published in September put his approval at 32%, with dissatisfaction over living costs among the principal concerns.
asserted
poll → publish → concerns
But national figures alone cannot explain what is happening in Alaska, where the statewide candidates are also confronting distinctly local issues.
asserted
candidates → explain → issues
Electing a Democrat here is not as surprising as it is in some other red states, said Tom Kizzia, a longtime Anchorage Daily News reporter and Alaska historian.
asserted
Kizzia → elect → states
…and 33 more, not listed.
The Aporia
