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College football Week 5 predictions: Best bets, picks against the spread

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Cite

Kussoy, H. (2026, October 2). College football Week 5 predictions: Best bets, picks against the spread. New York Post. https://nypost.com/2026/10/02/betting/college-football-week-5-predictions-best-bets-picks-against-the-spread/

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

New York Post · collected 2026-10-02 · by Howie Kussoy

Quick Summary

This article provides predictions and analysis for college football games in Week 5, focusing on matchups like Alabama versus Mississippi State, where Keelon Russell faces Kamario Taylor. The author also highlights Pittsburgh's game against Virginia Tech, noting Pitt’s strong defense and Mason Heintschel’s road success. Other featured games include Penn State versus Northwestern at the new Ryan Field, Notre Dame against North Carolina, Minnesota versus Michigan, Houston versus UCF, and Vanderbilt taking on Georgia.
Written by AI on 2026-10-02, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

In SEC Week 5, No. 7 Alabama (4-0) faced No. 16 Mississippi State (4-0) in a ranked matchup on Saturday, with Alabama winning 56-23. Despite being heavy favorites, the game highlighted the contrasting performances of quarterbacks Keelon Russell and Kamario Taylor. Russell, who had struggled early in the season, passed for 285 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for another score; he didn't turn over the ball against Mississippi State after committing interceptions at Kentucky previously. Meanwhile, Taylor's mobility was limited by an ankle injury, leading to a subpar performance. Alabama outgained the Bulldogs significantly in rushing yards (179-18), extending their winning streak against Mississippi State to 17 games with seven of the last victories coming by 23 points or more.

Written for “Alabama vs Mississippi State College …” on 2026-11-05, grounded in this article and the 5 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Alabama vs Mississippi State College …
Sports · 6 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 7% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Toronto Star
Hedges 0 of 21 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of college football games and predictions for upcoming matches rather than a single specific incident.”
Toronto Star
Hedges 1 of 28 claims Outlet record 64/100
Fox News
Hedges 4 of 12 claims Outlet record 68/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of college football in Week 5 but do not describe the same specific incident.”
Fox News
Hedges 11 of 41 claims Outlet record 68/100
“Article A discusses coaches' performance and hot seat status after four games, while Article B provides predictions and analysis for Week 5 of the college football season.”
Toronto Star
Hedges 1 of 30 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the upcoming game between Alabama and Mississippi State, but do not describe a single specific incident or outcome.”
Fox News
Hedges 3 of 25 claims Outlet record 68/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of an upcoming game between Alabama and Mississippi State in college football Week 5, rather than describing a single specific incident or occurrence.”
Toronto Star
Hedges 0 of 33 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The first article predicts a game between Alabama and Mississippi State, while the second describes the actual outcome of the game.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
42
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
7%
3 of 42 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
66/100
New York Post's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
6
Sports
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-02 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

New York Post · 17316 article(s) · 36 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 36 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Howie Kussoy
38 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 If Gunner Stockton doesn’t run into his own teammate and fumble at midfield against Auburn, Georgia would likely still be unbeaten.
🔮 The Rangers — who own a 6-1 record at Madison Square Garden —will have a welcome but unusual stretch of being home for nearly two straight weeks, beginning a three-game homestand against the Oilers on Sunday, followed by visits from the Blues and Flyers.
🔮 There must have been so many nights when Dylan Garand felt like his time would never come.
🔮 Mikel Brown Jr.’s second career game could present him with a long-awaited matchup against his friend and mentor, Donovan Mitchell.
🔮 But then at the same time, if I feel I have to make changes because of the benefit of the group, I will.
🔮 It IS too early to know who Arch Manning will become.
🔮 “I would say they’re on top of it. …
🔮 If the names and numbers were stripped from the back of every Blueshirt, it would’ve been easy to believe that Igor Shesterkin still stood between the pipes.
🔮 The next chance comes Thursday in Toronto, where the Rangers will attempt to improve upon their 1-3-1 road record this season.
🔮 Against the winless Dolphins, the final two minutes might not matter.
Also by Howie Kussoy
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 38 articles by Howie Kussoy →

Topics

Alabama Bulldogs Kentucky Mississippi State Starkville

Subjects

Taylor PERSON · 3× Alabama GPE · 2× Florida GPE · 2× Mississippi State GPE · 2× Missouri GPE · 2× Kamario Taylor PERSON · 1× Keelon Russell PERSON · 1× Kentucky GPE · 1× Russell PERSON · 1× Starkville GPE · 1×

Narrative

Indiana (-24) over RUTGERS As good as the Scarlet Knights made themselves feel by handing a 58-7 beating to the Bison of Howard, Greg Schiano will now return to the other end of a beatdown, having lost against top-10 teams by an average of more than 30 points per game since returning to Rutgers.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-02
🔮 But on Saturday in Starkville, one of the unlikely Heisman contenders could become the undefeated front-runner.
2026-10-02 · New York Post
College football Week 5 predictions: Best bets, picks against the spread · assertive framing

Claims (42 extracted, 3 hedged)

Keelon Russell, 19, had thrown 15 career passes and spent the summer battling to be Alabama’s starting quarterback. asserted
Russell → throw → summer
Kamario Taylor, 19, had made two winless starts at Mississippi State, entering this season as a Heisman uber-long shot (150/1) at a program that has won double-digit games once this century. asserted
that → make → games
But on Saturday in Starkville, one of the unlikely Heisman contenders could become the undefeated front-runner. uncertain
one → become → contenders
Russell has been a force since a shaky start at Kentucky, throwing for 685 yards, with nine total touchdowns and no interceptions in his past two games. asserted
Russell → throw → games
But Taylor is the breakout star of this young season, showcasing the talent and poise that could make him a future No. 1 draft pick. uncertain
him → showcase → talent
The nation’s third-ranked offense has led the Bulldogs to wins over three power-conference opponents this season, with Taylor completing nearly 70 percent of his passes and leading the team to its first win over a ranked team in 12 years with a fourth-quarter comeback in Missouri. asserted
Taylor → rank → Missouri
With the support of a top 15 ground game, Taylor can lift his team to new heights against a defense that ranks 88th in yards allowed per passing attempt (7.8). asserted
that → lift → attempt
The local kid has been waiting his whole life for a moment like this, leading MISSISSIPPI STATE (+6) against the juggernaut that has been torturing his boyhood team for decades. asserted
that → wait → decades
Pittsburgh (+3) over VIRGINIA TECH “Enter Sandman” worked better in The Bronx. asserted
Pittsburgh → work → Bronx
In their first home game against a power-conference team since going 2-5 at Lane Stadium last season, the Hokies face a Pitt defense that hasn’t allowed more than 14 points in any game this season and a quarterback (Mason Heintschel) who went 4-0 on the road for the Panthers last season. asserted
who → go → Panthers
Penn State (-2.5) over NORTHWESTERN The Wildcats have waited more than two years to open the new $870 million Ryan Field, but the Nittany Lions have even more motivation following their fourth-quarter meltdown against Wisconsin. asserted
Lions → wait → Wisconsin
Notre Dame (-21) over NORTH CAROLINA Bill Belichick has suffered four losses by at least 21 points since coming to Chapel Hill. asserted
Belichick → suffer → Hill
Now, he faces a national power for the first time. asserted
he → face → time
The Irish are riding a program-best streak of 14 straight wins by double digits — they have won their past five road games by an average of nearly 30 points — led by the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense (8.3 points per game). asserted
they → rid → game
MINNESOTA (+5.5) over Michigan Outside of a visit from UTEP, the Wolverines have averaged fewer than 17 points in three other games decided by an average of three points. asserted
Wolverines → average → points
The Gophers — coming off a win at Washington — get the first road game of the season for Bryce Underwood, who averaged 0.67 touchdown passes and completed 57 percent of his passes away from home last year. asserted
who → come → home
HOUSTON (-12.5) over UCF Scott Frost is 0-6 on the road since returning to the Knights. asserted
Frost → return → Knights
At least he’ll always have the 2017 “national championship.” asserted
he → have → championship
Vanderbilt (+24.5) over GEORGIA Coming off a statement blowout of Oklahoma, Kirby Smart will have trouble getting his guys up for a visit from the Commodores, especially with a trip to Alabama seven days away. asserted
Smart → come → Alabama
Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps - Check out the best sports betting sites and apps MISSOURI (+5) over Florida Ole Miss couldn’t handle the high of its emotional home win over LSU, following it by stumbling in its trip to Florida. asserted
Miss → get → Florida
Now, the inexperienced Gators are put in a similar position after securing their highest ranking in six seasons. asserted
Gators → put → seasons
The Tigers are 21-3 at home and a nation-leading 8-1 against the spread after a loss since 2023. asserted
Tigers → lead → 2023
Austin Simmons (11 touchdowns, zero interceptions) should go off against the nation’s 118th-ranked pass defense. asserted
Simmons → go → defense
IOWA (+14) over Ohio State Kinnick Stadium remains one of the toughest places to play in the country. asserted
IOWA → remain → country
The Hawkeyes (5-1-1 against the spread as an underdog since 2024) have only lost two home games by double digits in the past 12 years, and the atmosphere should be as electric as ever, following a last-second win at Michigan. asserted
atmosphere → lose → Michigan
The Buckeyes’ most recent visit to Iowa City came in 2017, when Urban Meyer’s title hopes blew up in a stunning blowout loss. asserted
hopes → come → loss
TENNESSEE (-7) over Auburn The Volunteers are a legit playoff contender, thanks to a defense that nearly helped pull off an upset of top-ranked Texas. asserted
that → help → Texas
Their issues on the offensive line are an even bigger liability for the Tigers, who will be playing their first road game and rank 133rd in the nation in sacks allowed per game (3.5). asserted
who → play → game
BYU (-6.5) over TCU The Cougars are coming off a bye and haven’t lost to an unranked team in nearly two years, including a 44-13 win over TCU last season. asserted
Cougars → come → TCU
Former Harvard quarterback Jaden Craig lost his first two power-conference games to underwhelming opponents (North Carolina, UCF), throwing two interceptions, no touchdowns, and taking seven sacks. asserted
Craig → lose → sacks
Now he faces a team that is 27-4 in the past three seasons. asserted
that → face → seasons
Texas Tech (-13) over COLORADO It’s a good thing the Buffaloes locked up Deion Sanders — who is now 12-23 against power-conference teams — to an extension with three years left on his original deal. asserted
who → ’ → deal
Sanders will attempt to spark change by calling on Isaac Wilson, the younger brother of the Jets’ former No. 2 overall pick. asserted
Sanders → attempt → pick
What could go wrong? uncertain
What → go → ?
Washington (+9.5) over USC In their past three games, the Trojans have allowed 30 points to Louisiana, 35 to Rutgers and 41 to Oregon’s backup quarterback. asserted
Trojans → allow → quarterback
The back door will always remain open against USC’s 105th-ranked pass defense. asserted
door → remain → defense
CLEMSON (+16.5) over Miami The outcome shouldn’t be in doubt, but the Hurricanes — who won only two of five road games by double digits last season — are ill-prepared for primetime in Death Valley, entering with the 108th-ranked strength of schedule. asserted
who → win → schedule
Dabo Swinney doesn’t need to turn back the clock. asserted
Swinney → need → clock
He just needs to cover as the biggest underdog he’s ever been as a head coach. asserted
he → need → coach
Indiana (-24) over RUTGERS As good as the Scarlet Knights made themselves feel by handing a 58-7 beating to the Bison of Howard, Greg Schiano will now return to the other end of a beatdown, having lost against top-10 teams by an average of more than 30 points per game since returning to Rutgers. asserted
Schiano → make → Rutgers
…and 2 more, not listed.
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