Addressing the Valdai conference in Moscow on Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin engaged in one of his favored refrains.
asserted
Putin → address → refrains
Offering a litany of historical (and mostly ahistorical) grievances, Putin falsely blamed the West for escalating against Russia.
asserted
Putin → offer → Russia
And ignoring the grave defeat such action would impose upon his nation, Putin resurrected his nuclear threats.
asserted
Putin → ignore → threats
As Russia fails to progress in its war on Ukraine, as the death toll of 500,000 Russian soldiers keeps rising, and as Russia’s economy further disintegrates, Putin is desperate to end Western support for Ukraine.
asserted
Putin → fail → Ukraine
As I predicted back in June, Putin is now escalating his campaign of terrorism across Europe and the United States.
asserted
Putin → predict → Europe
He wants NATO populations to so fear a military showdown with Russia that they force their governments to appease Moscow rather than keep supporting Kyiv.
asserted
they → want → Kyiv
To that end, the former KGB officer painted us a fictional world on Thursday in which NATO exercises in the Baltic Sea threaten Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave.
asserted
exercises → paint → exclave
Kaliningrad sits along the Baltic coast and is wedged between Poland and Lithuania.
asserted
Kaliningrad → sit → Poland
As Putin put it, “If it comes to a direct attack on the Russian Federation — in this case, we are referring to Kaliningrad, and perhaps other territories as well — the question of [Russia] deploying all the weapons at our country’s disposal will, of course, inevitably and immediately be on the agenda.
asserted
Russia → put → agenda
In a clear effort to foster European doubts over American commitment to NATO, Putin added, “France and [the United Kingdom] are nuclear powers — we understand that perfectly well and are fully aware of it.
asserted
we → foster → it
But no one else possesses the kind of weapons that Russia has today.
asserted
Russia → possess → that
Can we be certain that [nuclear] weapons will never be used?
asserted
weapons → use → ?
Putin is doing what any good KGB officer does best: He’s playing mind games.
asserted
He → do → games
While NATO’s Baltic Sea exercises are designed to isolate Kaliningrad during any future war with Russia, no blockade of Kaliningrad is being considered.
asserted
blockade → design → Kaliningrad
NATO has no interest in a blockade that would start a war.
asserted
that → have → war
Putin knows this.
asserted
Putin → know → this
But he also knows that nuclear rhetoric makes news and that Western populations don’t want to die in a thermonuclear holocaust.
asserted
populations → know → holocaust
In turn, he wants to foster a common European belief that if their governments keep supporting Ukraine, armageddon might follow.
uncertain
armageddon → want → Ukraine
Putin’s intimidation strategy faces two key obstacles, however.
asserted
strategy → face → obstacles
First, his counterproductive Greenland antics notwithstanding, President Donald Trump has been far more resolute in facing Russian nuclear threats than Joe Biden or Barack Obama.
asserted
Trump → face → Biden
As an extension, Russia would almost certainly fail to eliminate British or French nuclear forces before they could launch their weapons in a war.
uncertain
they → fail → war
This might seem like casual rhetoric about the terrible calamity that any nuclear exchange would necessarily entail.
uncertain
exchange → seem → that
Still, these strategic realities matter because they demand living space in Putin’s brain.
asserted
they → matter → brain
His rhetoric aside, Putin knows he is particularly outmatched by U.S. Air Force and Navy nuclear forces.
asserted
he → know → forces
He also knows that any use of nuclear weapons in relation to Kaliningrad would almost certainly result in the nuclear annihilation of Russian forces in Kaliningrad.
asserted
use → know → Kaliningrad
Indeed, Trump has given the military lower-yield tactical nuclear weapons that are explicitly designed to deny Russia the hope of using its own tactical nuclear weapons without riposte.
asserted
that → give → riposte
NATO should thus keep calm and carry on.
asserted
NATO → keep → ?
If Putin wants to self-destruct Russian territory, that is his prerogative.
asserted
that → want → territory
NATO should focus on facing Putin’s threats with a military fortress and a mentality to match.
asserted
NATO → focus → fortress
The Aporia
