The United States and Iran have escalated tit-for-tat attacks in the past 24 hours, with Washington targeting three Iranian oil tankers and Tehran hitting tankers and firing a ballistic missile towards US warships patrolling near the Strait of Hormuz.
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Tehran → escalate → Hormuz
Experts have dubbed Iran’s targeting of the two US aircraft carriers a “calculated escalation”, as the months-long fighting is increasingly playing out at sea, with both sides trying to exert control over the strategic strait – a global chokepoint used by Tehran as leverage in the war.
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sides → dub → war
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Trump → threaten → Mountain
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The attacks on tankers come as the US claims that an increasing volume of oil has started to flow through the strait, though the exact figures are still debatable, while the naval blockade of Iranian ports continues.
uncertain
blockade → kill → ports
The latest exchanges further dim hopes for a de-escalation through diplomacy as the US-Israel war on Iran has disrupted energy supplies and slowed economic growth around the world.
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war → dim → world
So, what do we know about the latest tanker wars, and where is the conflict headed?
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conflict → know → wars
What do we know about the latest attacks on tankers?
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we → know → tankers
US Central Command (CENTCOM) said its forces struck three Iranian vessels, including a tanker off Kharg Island, the hub through which Iran exported 90 percent of its crude before the war.
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Iran → say → war
Another tanker was struck near Jask, and an unladen vessel was hit in the Gulf of Oman after its crew was told to abandon ship.
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crew → strike → ship
CENTCOM said the attacks followed Iranian ballistic missile launches against a US aircraft carrier and navy destroyer, which it said successfully evaded the strikes.
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it → say → strikes
No US personnel were injured.
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personnel → injure → ?
“If you shoot at two of our ships, we will impose an even higher economic cost — taking out three of yours,” CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper said.
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Cooper → shoot → yours
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it launched “several ballistic missiles” at the aircraft carrier and destroyer, accusing them of “harassing Iranian ships” and taking part in a naval blockade.
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it → say → blockade
“The Iranians did not only target two ordinary warships – they targeted a missile destroyer and, remarkably, an aircraft carrier … the backbone of the American campaign against Iran,” defence analyst Wolfgang Pusztai told Al Jazeera.
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Pusztai → target → Jazeera
“This is a very, very significant development, and it doesn’t come as a surprise that the Americans retaliated.”
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Americans → come → surprise
Iran then said its forces also targeted three oil tankers travelling through what it called an “unauthorised route” in the Strait of Hormuz and three US-linked vessels elsewhere.
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it → say → Hormuz
In a statement carried by Iranian broadcaster IRIB, the IRGC navy warned all vessels in the Gulf or near the Strait of Hormuz not to be “deceived” by the US military and to “refrain from any suspicious movement aimed at transiting unauthorised waterways”.
“Otherwise, you will be targeted,” it said.
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it → carry → waterways
On Sunday, Iran claimed it struck an unmanned US vessel trying to enter the Strait of Hormuz, according to The Associated Press news agency.
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it → claim → agency
Why are they attacking tankers?
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they → attack → tankers
Washington claimed the Iranian tankers it struck were part of a multibillion-dollar shadow network financing the IRGC and its regional allies.
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it → claim → IRGC
Iran has long relied partly on a shadow fleet to circumvent sanctions and sell oil, a source of revenue that has become more important since the US began blockading Iranian ports in April.
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US → rely → April
Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil supplies flowed, in retaliation for the US-Israeli attacks that began on February 28.
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that → shut → February
Some 20 million barrels of oil flowed daily before the war began.
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war → flow → oil
Hassan Ghashghavi, a lawmaker and spokesman for the Iranian Parliament’s National Security Commission, said the attacks on US warships were part of “an existential war with America”, arguing that Washington’s naval blockade “should never have existed” in the first place.
“Naturally, they have acted militarily in violation of all international laws,” he told Al Jazeera, adding that “because America is far from us, it does not see this war as existential”.
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it → say → war
Meanwhile, the US has continued to build pressure on Iran to open the key waterway, both militarily and economically.
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US → continue → waterway
Last month, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a raft of economic measures to target Tehran’s financial interests across the world.
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Bessent → announce → world
Bessent said the US would target all of Iran’s sources of revenue, including oil, to prevent other countries and companies from doing business with Tehran.
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US → say → Tehran
This comes despite US assertions of normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz, with Washington insisting the waterway is open and that dozens of ships carrying millions of barrels of oil transit it each day.
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dozens → come → it
Last week, Bessent claimed that some 17 million barrels of crude oil a day had been shipped out recently, according to a report in the United Kingdom’s The Times newspaper.
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barrels → claim → newspaper
Al Jazeera, however, could not independently verify the claims in the report.
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Jazeera → verify → report
President Donald Trump claimed last month that the US was in “total control” of the strait.
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US → claim → strait
Yet figures from marine analytics firm Kpler show only six vessels crossed the strait on Wednesday, 11 on Tuesday and five on Monday, with a 10-day average of just 13 vessels per day.
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vessels → show → day
The attacks are adding to concerns about global energy supplies.
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attacks → add → supplies
Brent crude futures closed on Friday at $96.28 a barrel, their highest level since July 24, up from roughly $70 before the war.
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futures → close → war
Predictably, US oil and gas prices have also skyrocketed, coming at a crucial time for Trump as Americans head to the polls for midterm elections in November.
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Americans → skyrocket → November
Diesel hit a new record price in the US on Friday, soaring to an average of $5.85 a gallon ($1.55 per litre) for the first time ever.
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Diesel → hit → time
Polls have repeatedly suggested a majority of Americans oppose the war, which has also plunged Trump’s popularity.
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which → suggest → popularity
A Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted in late August found that only 31 percent of Americans back the war, while 63 percent are against it.
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percent → conduct → it
The same polling suggested Trump’s approval rating has dropped to 33 percent, down from 40 percent since the fighting began.
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fighting → suggest → percent
Where is the conflict headed?
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conflict → head → ?
…and 15 more, not listed.
The Aporia
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