A decade ago, Donald Trump’s improbable presidential campaign was rocked – and nearly derailed – by the now-infamous Access Hollywood tape, a 2005 recording in which the real estate developer turned reality TV star boasted about kissing and grabbing women without their consent.
asserted
developer → rock → consent
“When you’re a star, they let you do it,” he said, a remark he later downplayed as “locker-room talk” before musing that the tape might be fake.
uncertain
tape → ’re → talk
In the moment, it felt fatal – the ignoble end of an explosive campaign for the White House.
asserted
it → feel → House
Back then, Americans hadn’t quite grasped Trump’s capacity to shock but not surprise.
asserted
Americans → grasp → capacity
Within days, the outrage receded, swallowed by two more “October surprises” – WikiLeaks released the hacked emails of Hillary Clinton’s campaign manager, John Podesta, and then-FBI director James Comey announced the bureau was reviewing new emails related to her private server.
asserted
bureau → recede → server
That November, voters punished the first woman to be nominated for president by a major party for her emails, among other grievances, real and imagined, and handed the presidency to the man who had boasted that he could “grab em by the pussy”.
uncertain
he → punish → pussy
US women haven’t voted the same since, and next month’s midterm elections offer another test of their tolerance for Trump in the Trump era.
asserted
elections → vote → era
Long divided by race and class, Trump’s rise – or perhaps Clinton’s defeat – splintered US women further, along lines of educational achievement and marital status.
asserted
rise → divide → achievement
In 2016, Trump won white women overall, but Clinton prevailed among college-educated white women, a partisan reversal from the presidential election four years earlier.
asserted
Clinton → win → election
In 2018, suburban women voters “revolted”, propelling Democratic victories and sending a record 102 women to the US House of Representatives in what was hailed as another Year of the Women.
asserted
what → revolt → Women
A conservative backlash brewed.
asserted
backlash → brew → ?
The Senate confirmed Brett Kavanaugh to the supreme court after Christine Blasey Ford testified that he had sexually assaulted her when they were teens – a claim he vigorously denied.
uncertain
he → confirm → claim
Gen Z grew up in the shadow of that collision.
asserted
Z → grow → collision
As a cohort, they are marked by a wide ideological gender divide, with gen Z women – many mobilized by the overturning of Roe v Wade – becoming more progressive and politically engaged, while their male peers drifted rightward into Maga and the “manosphere”.
asserted
peers → mark → Maga
Anger over the loss of federal abortion protections helped forestall Democratic losses in the 2022 midterms.
asserted
Anger → forestall → midterms
But the gender gap wasn’t enough to shatter the glass ceiling in 2024, when Trump defeated Kamala Harris – even after a jury found him liable for sexual abuse and defamation in a civil suit brought by writer E Jean Carroll.
asserted
him → shatter → Carroll
A gender divide once again looms over the midterm map that will determine the balance of power in Washington for Trump’s final two years in office.
asserted
that → loom → office
A recent New York Times-Siena poll found 65% of women disapproved of Trump’s handling of his job as president, compared with 52% of men.
asserted
% → find → men
According to the survey, 57% of women would back the Democratic House candidate in their district, whereas only 45% of men said the same, a dynamic that played out across three key Senate contests surveyed in the poll – Maine, Michigan and New Hampshire.
uncertain
that → accord → poll
Trump has maintained that he has empowered women throughout his business and political career.
asserted
he → maintain → career
His chief of staff, Susie Wiles, is the first woman to ever serve in the role.
asserted
chief → serve → role
But polling suggests women are deeply dissatisfied with the president’s second-term performance, including, according to one national poll, one in four women who voted for him.
uncertain
who → suggest → him
In Maine, Republican senator Susan Collins, long considered untouchable, is facing voters for the first time since Kavanaugh joined four conservative justices to end the constitutional right to abortion.
asserted
Kavanaugh → consider → abortion
Her Democratic opponent, logger-turned politician Troy Jackson, is working hard to ensure voters don’t forget that their senator cast a decisive vote to put him on the bench.
asserted
senator → turn → bench
The Times poll shows him leading among women voters by 53% to 44%.
asserted
him → show → %
Trump has cast the November election as a referendum on his presidency.
asserted
Trump → cast → presidency
Will voters cement his power – or turn over control to Democrats, and grind his agenda to a halt?
asserted
voters → cement → halt
It all may depend on what US women want.
uncertain
women → depend → what
Quoted:
“This is the beginning of the end.
asserted
This → quote → end
As powerful and transgressive as he’s been, the country does not have a positive outlook right now.
asserted
country → have → outlook
In fact, the negativity and pessimism among voters has reached a point that is unparalleled since Jimmy Carter,” Rick Wilson, a longtime Republican strategist, said about Trump’s final years in office.
asserted
Wilson → reach → office
‘The weaker he gets, the more dangerous he gets’: Trump lashes out as his power wanes
Watch this race: A Hobbs’ Choice in Arizona
A “unity ticket”?
asserted
Choice → get → Arizona
Katie Hobbs, the Democratic governor of Arizona, and John Giles, a former Republican mayor of Mesa, a populous Phoenix suburb, are giving bipartisanship a whirl in the battleground state.
asserted
Hobbs → give → state
Facing a tough re-election, Hobbs tapped Giles – a vocal Trump critic who formally left his party in May to become an independent after endorsing Kamala Harris in 2024 – to be her running mate.
uncertain
who → face → 2024
Hobbs’ choice of Giles is an overture to the independents and moderate Republicans she will likely need to secure a second term.
asserted
she → need → term
Once a reliably Republican stronghold, Arizona has elected a string of Democrats statewide since Trump was first elected.
asserted
Trump → elect → Democrats
In 2020, voters there narrowly backed Joe Biden for president before swinging back to Trump in 2024.
asserted
voters → back → 2024
This year is the first time Arizonans will elect a lieutenant governor, after voters approved the second-in-command role in 2022.
asserted
voters → elect → 2022
Hobbs faces Republican congressman Andy Biggs, a staunch Trump ally who played a prominent role in the effort to overturn Biden’s 2020 victory.
asserted
who → face → victory
Biggs has chosen Sine Kerr, a dairy farmer and former state senator as his running mate.
asserted
Biggs → choose → mate
…and 2 more, not listed.
The Aporia
