This story is part of a series of monthly snapshots from the Washington Examiner, titled Midterm Countdown, gauging the state of the 2026 election cycle.
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story → title → cycle
Scroll down to the bottom of the story for the latest prediction market odds of who is going to win.
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who → scroll → odds
The GOP is in final preparations for the Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas to bolster support among its base.
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GOP → bolster → base
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The Trumpalooza-themed event kicks off the post-Labor Day sprint to November.
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event → theme → November
But many congressional lawmakers are skipping the convention to campaign in their districts, and many grassroots supporters claim the event is too pricey to justify attending.
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event → skip → districts
Democrats are counting on voter disaffection over high gas prices and President Donald Trump’s sinking poll numbers to help them flip the House and possibly the Senate.
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them → count → House
But they’ve also been plagued by far-left activists who are distracting their affordability message.
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who → plague → message
Plus, ongoing redistricting battles in Missouri and a legal tussle over Trump’s mail-in voting executive order are still in flux as voters in North Carolina begin receiving absentee ballots.
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voters → mail → ballots
Republicans find their boogeymen
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Republicans → find → boogeymen
For years, Republicans had a recurring star in their TV ads and campaign messaging: Nancy Pelosi.
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Republicans → have → ads
The former Democratic speaker was the longtime villain, a mainstay in ads as Republicans linked Democratic candidates to her to paint them as radical and out of touch.
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Republicans → link → touch
She was so toxic, in some areas, that many battleground candidates specifically campaigned on the promise they would not vote for Pelosi as speaker.
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they → campaign → speaker
In 2019, as Pelosi’s unpopularity roared, 15 Democrats refused to vote for her on the House floor.
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Democrats → roar → floor
Many of them had just been elected in battleground districts — such as Abigail Spanberger, Mikie Sherrill, and Elissa Slotkin, all of whom would later seek higher office.
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all → elect → office
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) is not unpopular enough — or well known enough — to be the next boogeyman.
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Jeffries → know → ?
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) have appeared in some ads over the last few cycles.
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Schumer → appear → cycles
But neither are as inflammatory as Hasan Piker, the socialist Twitch streamer who has become a staple in Republican midterm messaging over the past month.
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who → become → month
Piker, who has been criticized for his vehemently anti-Israel posture, is an outspoken supporter of Abdul el Sayed, the Democratic nominee in Michigan’s Senate race.
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who → criticize → race
Piker’s past controversial comments, including saying that “America deserved 9/11,” have given Republicans ammunition with which to damage Democrats.
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America → include → Democrats
He’s also become a central part of their contrast message.
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He → become → message
Vice President JD Vance took aim at el Sayed and Piker during a recent campaign swing through Michigan.
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Vance → take → Michigan
“My message to Abdul el Sayed is: You can pal around with terrorist sympathizers, and you can say that America deserved 9/11, or you could empathize, not with the children who were targeted at Temple Israel, but with the attacker,” he said.
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he → pal → attacker
“These are all despicable things, but they’re all things that the people of Michigan will judge you on based on your record.”
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people → ’re → record
A Republican strategist also said they anticipate making regional villains so that their messages resonate.
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messages → say → villains
In New York, for example, socialist Mayor Zohran Mamdani figures to take a lead role in negative advertising.
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Mamdani → figure → advertising
The National Republican Campaign Committee said Democrats “own every radical position” taken by the polarizing figures.
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Democrats → say → figures
“Vulnerable House Democrats have tied themselves to the most unhinged socialists in their party, from Zohran Mamdani to Hasan Piker,” NRCC Spokesman Mike Marinella told the Washington Examiner in a statement.
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Marinella → tie → statement
“Now they own every radical position, every insane statement, and every socialist policy that comes with them, and we’re going to hang that record around their necks like an anvil all the way to Election Day.
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we → own → Day
Missouri madness notches Democrats a surprise win
Democrats scored an unexpected win the first week of September after Missouri’s state Supreme Court unanimously blocked the GOP’s new congressional map.
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Court → notch → map
The ruling requires Missouri to use its previous map for the November elections, effectively restoring Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D-MO) Kansas City-based 5th Congressional District.
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ruling → require → District
At the center of the case was an effort by opponents of the new map to put it before voters through Missouri’s referendum process.
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effort → put → process
Under the state constitution, voters can petition to approve or reject laws passed by the legislature.
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voters → petition → legislature
Opponents gathered enough signatures to force a referendum on the new congressional map, which meant the map could not take effect unless and until voters approved it.
But
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voters → gather → it
Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins rejected the referendum, arguing that congressional redistricting legislation was not subject to the state’s referendum process.
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legislation → reject → process
The Missouri Supreme Court — dominated by Republican appointees — ruled the secretary of state erred in making the decision.
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secretary → dominate → decision
As a result, the court put the new map on hold until voters can approve it in November.
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voters → put → November
Even if it passes, the new map will not take effect until 2028.
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map → pass → 2028
Republicans already hold six out of the eight districts in Missouri.
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Republicans → hold → Missouri
The new map was set to give the party a seventh district.
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map → set → district
The ruling creates an unusual situation for November.
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ruling → create → November
…and 57 more, not listed.
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