In short:
A political marketing expert says key Labor seats in Queensland are dependent on working holiday visa staffing and are highly impacted by the system changes.
asserted
seats → say → changes
Backpackers in the state's far north are reportedly already leaving the region or saying they would not have stayed if they had known.
What's next?
uncertain
What → leave → region
Experts say Labor risks losing the next federal election if it does not make a public plan.
asserted
it → say → plan
After six months working as a chef in a Far North Queensland kitchen, Rocco Raseri should from today be eligible for his third year working holiday visa.
asserted
Raseri → work → visa
However, under the federal government's changes to the system, the number of spots up for grabs has gone from 31,000 last year, to now just over 5,000.
asserted
number → go → 5,000
"With this uncertainty, probably I wouldn't even have done these six months of work," the 27-year-old Italian backpacker said.
asserted
backpacker → do → work
"That is a lot [of time working] to not even get the opportunity to stay here."
Mr Raseri is one of thousands of casual seasonal workers who power Australia's winter holiday destination, and the country's third-largest foodbowl, in Far North Queensland.
asserted
who → work → Queensland
He said if he had known his spot was not guaranteed, he would have made different choices, such as seeking sponsorship in a capital city.
asserted
he → say → city
"Probably just travelling in Australia to see as much as I can see, instead of staying six months in Cairns,"he said.
asserted
I → travel → Cairns,"he
"It's beautiful, but the goal was to get these days to apply for a visa.
asserted
goal → get → visa
"
Mr Raseri's change of heart is what businesses in backpacker-reliant regions fear most, and political analysts say it could cost Labor at the next federal election.
uncertain
it → fear → election
Vulnerable seats
Australian National University political marketing expert Andrew Hughes said working holiday visa changes put regional MPs in a tight spot.
asserted
changes → say → spot
Dr Hughes said the visa policy protected Labor's core city voters at the expense of backpacker-dependant regions nationwide.
asserted
policy → say → regions
The NTs Lingiari, Bullwinkel in WA, and several regional Tasmanian and New South Wales seats could now be in question, he said.
uncertain
he → say → question
"It creates that wedge and that perception that the government has forgotten about the regions,"he said.
asserted
government → create → regions,"he
However, Dr Hughes said Queensland votes were more vulnerable than any other state, particularly with "the rise of One Nation", and the far north's seat of Leichhardt would be ground zero.
asserted
seat → say → Leichhardt
Labor's Matt Smith won the long-held Coalition seat, spanning from Cairns to the Torres Strait, on a 9.5 per cent swing at last year's federal election.
asserted
Smith → win → election
It was one of seven new Labor seats delivered by Queensland, lifting its contribution from five to 12 of the state's 30 seats.
asserted
It → deliver → seats
However, the LNP narrowly won the statewide vote by just over 1 per cent.
asserted
LNP → win → cent
Since then, One Nation has surged in popularity, polling 36 per cent in Queensland, ahead of Labor's 25 per cent, according to this week's Newspoll.
uncertain
Nation → surge → Newspoll
Dr Hughes said the visa policy was a "significant" challenge to Mr Smith's hold on the crucial Labor seat.
asserted
policy → say → seat
"It shows whether he's connected and listening to the needs of all his electorate or just those in certain areas which are more Labor friendly," he said.
"
asserted
he → show → areas
He's going to have to try and defend a policy which he knows probably in his electorate does not work."
asserted
he → go → electorate
He said Labor would be keen to retain Leichhardt, which was a Coalition stronghold for decades under Warren Entsch who regularly crossed the parliamentary floor.
asserted
who → say → floor
Focus on solutions
James Cook University political scientist Maxine Newlands agreed Queensland was "certainly unique" when it came to "bucking the trend" at federal level elections, making it worth major party focus.
asserted
it → agree → elections
However, she said regional MPs like Matt Smith did not need to publicly oppose the policy to bring confidence back to voters if alternatives were offered.
"It's got to be solution-led and it's got to be community solution led," she said.
asserted
she → say → voters
She said Working Holiday Visa holders were the second-largest contributors to Australia's net overseas migration, placing them at the centre of the debate.
asserted
holders → say → debate
"The concern with this is obviously we're going to see a repetition of the shortage of workers that we saw during COVID," Dr Newlands said.
asserted
Newlands → go → COVID
"[Leading up to the election] people are going to look and say to their local members, 'Have you done enough for us in the last three years?'"
asserted
you → lead → years
Smith's plan
Earlier this week, Mr Smith told ABC Far North he was already having conversations with peak tourism and agriculture bodies in Cairns to come up with solutions.
asserted
he → tell → solutions
"Then I can take that back to [Immigration Minister Tony Burke] and say 'Hey this is some of the stuff that's being thought of up here'," Mr Smith said.
asserted
Smith → take → stuff
The current scheme, he said, was not attracting enough workers to regional Australia.
asserted
he → say → Australia
He said more than a third of an estimated 211,000 working holiday-makers were British, who no longer needed to complete regional work for extra visas.
asserted
who → say → visas
"They're all hanging out in Bondi … they're not helping us out here, and that's where the pressure is being felt," he said.
"The important thing throughout this process is to make sure regions like ours continue to get the workforce they need."
asserted
they → hang → workforce
Mr Smith said increasing the Pacific Area Labor Mobility scheme was a viable option for the regions, but he would continue to work with stakeholders in the meantime.
asserted
he → say → meantime
"The last thing that any of us want to do is put the brakes on the tourism industry, particularly up here which has gone through so much over the last five or six years," he said.
asserted
he → want → years
Dr Hughes agreed the altruistic element of assisting Pacific nations tied into Labor's policy of assisting island nations like Tuvalu in the face of climate change and rising sea levels.
asserted
element → agree → change
"Labor believes the working holiday changes takes some of the heat out of the migration debate, whereas I don't think it's achieved that outcome," he said.
asserted
he → believe → outcome
"I think it's actually going to work against them."
asserted
it → think → them
The Aporia
