- Published
For the first time in more than 30 years, a hurricane has not formed in the Atlantic throughout September - normally the most active month for hurricane activity.
asserted
hurricane → publish → activity
The eerily quiet season continues and with just two months left, there is an increasing possibility that no hurricanes will develop at all.
asserted
hurricanes → continue → ?
This would make the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season the only one in the satellite era without a hurricane.
asserted
season → make → hurricane
The biggest reason for this is El Niño, which traditionally stifles activity in the Atlantic but brings a very active season in the eastern North Pacific.
asserted
which → stifle → Pacific
The Atlantic hurricane season was predicted to be quieter than normal as a result of this.
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season → predict → this
With a very strong El Niño forecast, the US National Hurricane Center in May predicted a total of eight to 14 named storms.
uncertain
Center → predict → storms
Of those, three to six were predicted to become hurricanes, with one to three becoming major hurricanes.
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three → predict → those
But, this year marks the latest date on record since the start of the satellite era (1960s onward) where no hurricane has formed in the North Atlantic.
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hurricane → mark → Atlantic
There were, however, four named tropical storms which formed in September: Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo and Hanna.
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which → be → September
All but Edouard stayed out in the open waters of the Atlantic.
asserted
All → stay → Atlantic
The National Hurricane Center suggests there is no sign of any tropical storm activity or hurricane over the next week at least.
uncertain
Center → suggest → week
Forecasters at Colorado State University, who also monitor activity, suggest the strong El Niño is likely to disrupt wind patterns across the Atlantic and "likely result in below-normal activity" over the next two-weeks.
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Niño → monitor → weeks
As the typical peak of the season has passed and is now on a downward trend until 30 November, a season without a single hurricane is looking increasingly possible.
asserted
season → pass → hurricane
However, this was pre-satellite monitoring so it is impossible to say with certainty that none formed.
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none → say → certainty
How does El Niño affect tropical development?
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Niño → affect → development
While El Niño is the natural warming of the tropical Pacific, it can disrupt weather patterns around the globe.
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it → disrupt → globe
As wind patterns shift during an El Niño, upper winds over the Atlantic increase and this leads to more wind shear, where wind changes rapidly with height.
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wind → shift → height
Increased wind shear rips apart thunderstorms, preventing them from growing into tropical storms or hurricanes.
asserted
shear → rip → storms
Meanwhile, the Pacific typically becomes more active during El Niño because the sea surface temperatures here are much higher, combined with more favourable wind patterns.
asserted
temperatures → become → patterns
The warmer waters give storms more energy to grow into tropical storms and hurricanes.
asserted
waters → give → storms
This year, temperature records have already been broken in a key region of the central-eastern Pacific, with daily sea surface temperatures now exceeding the previous record set during the very strong El Niño of 2015.
asserted
temperatures → break → 2015
There have so far been 17 named storms in the basin including nine hurricanes, seven of which were major.
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seven → name → which
In terms of the amount of energy these storms have produced - known as the Accumulated Cyclone Energy - this season is around two and half times more active than normal at this point.
asserted
season → produce → point
El Niño is predicted to continue to strengthen with forecasts suggesting it will reach its peak in November or December.
asserted
it → predict → November
The Aporia
