Partial results are expected on Saturday evening, with preliminary official results due on Sunday.
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results → expect → Sunday
Polls opened on Saturday in Latvia's parliamentary election shaped by concerns over neighbouring Russia and the cost of living crisis.
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Polls → open → living
The Baltic state is a key pillar of NATO's eastern defensive flank, and experts say there is widespread support for supporting Ukraine in the war with Russia.
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experts → say → Russia
"The stance towards Russia is the main reason for Latvians' Western, NATO and European anchoring," a Western diplomat in Riga said, adding that it would be hard to imagine major political changes.
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it → say → changes
Polls predict the centre-right United List, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, will emerge the largest party in parliament in Saturday's vote.
But his centre-right coalition, which also brings together the centrist New Unity, nationalist National Alliance and the Union of Greens and Farmers, is expected to emerge weakened from the election.
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which → predict → election
Partial results are expected on Saturday evening, with preliminary official results due on Sunday.
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results → expect → Sunday
The current governing coalition is made up of United List, New Unity, the Union of Greens and Farmers, and the National Alliance.
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coalition → govern → Greens
Polls suggest the bloc is unlikely to retain power in its current form after the vote.
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bloc → suggest → vote
Security and economy at the top of voters' minds
Security is at the top of voters' minds in a country bordering Russia which was annexed and ruled by Moscow for much of the 20th century.
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which → border → century
According to Roberts Kits, an analyst at the Latvian think tank LaSER, "defence and security will be the priority".
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defence → accord → tank
Apart from a few dissenting voices, he said, there is broad consensus on maintaining military spending at nearly five percent of GDP and on supporting Ukraine.
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he → dissent → Ukraine
Latvia is the least affluent of the three Baltic States in terms of living standards, despite catching up since joining the EU in 2004.
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Latvia → catch → 2004
Growth is sluggish, with voters pointing to the cost of living, the state of the healthcare system and the difficulties of public finances.
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voters → point → finances
Complicating this are major regional disparities.
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disparities → complicate → this
Around Riga, GDP per capita reached 101 percent of the European average in 2024, according to a European Commission report.
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GDP → reach → report
In other regions, the figure does not exceed 50 percent.
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figure → exceed → percent
The contrast is sharpest in Latgale, Latvia's easternmost region, where depopulation is accelerating and economic opportunity is scarce.
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opportunity → accelerate → Latgale
The region is home to a large majority of Russian speakers, and its decline is reflected most visibly in Daugavpils, the country's second-largest city, where 90 percent of the population is Russian-speaking.
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percent → reflect → population
"The most important thing is the lack of young people and the lack of good jobs," said Aigars Soikants, a 30-year-old Daugavpils resident.
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Soikants → say → jobs
People are leaving."
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People → leave → ?
Despite living in a city with a predominantly Russian-speaking population, Soikants says identity is not what will drive his vote.
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what → live → vote
He plans to back "a centrist or right-wing party which acts in the interest of the country.
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which → plan → country
Rise of populist parties in Latvia
Similar to other parts of Europe, populist parties have benefited from economic worries in the lead-up to the election.
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parties → benefit → election
The Sovereign Power (Suverena vara, SV) party, critical of aid to Ukraine and increasing military spending, is polling at nine percent and could reach second place in Parliament.
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party → increase → Parliament
Considered pro-Russian by its critics, the party, led by Julija Stepanenko, emphasises Latvia's economic difficulties.
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party → consider → difficulties
The party, however, is isolated politically and, barring a huge upset, has no chance of entering a future governing coalition.
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party → isolate → coalition
Carefully avoiding the word "Ukraine", Vjaceslavs Stepanenko, the head of SV's local list in Latgale and husband of the party’s chairwoman, advocates "stopping all aid to any foreign state".
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Stepanenko → avoid → state
"We are the ones who need help, not the other way around."
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who → need → help
Another populist party, Latvia First (LPV), is also at nine percent, and its businessman leader Ainars Slesers is regularly compared to US President Donald Trump.
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Slesers → compare → Trump
The party is winning support with a conservative message and promises of economic revival, and unlike SV, it could become an indispensable partner in coalition talks.
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it → win → talks
"The big question is whether the United List will cooperate with Slesers' party," said political analyst Sigita Struberga.
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Struberga → cooperate → party
Can Russian-speaking voters influence the polls?
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voters → speak → polls
Long rallied behind the "Harmony" party, Russian speakers, who make up about 35 percent of Latvia's population, no longer vote as a unified bloc.
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who → rally → bloc
Harmony, which won several parliamentary elections without ever entering government, disappeared from parliament in 2022 and has very little chance of returning.
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which → win → chance
Russian-speaking voters should not be treated as a single bloc with uniform behaviour, according to analyst Kits.
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voters → speak → Kits
While identity politics remain a factor, a growing share of this electorate is now driven by economic and social concerns.
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share → remain → concerns
That shift is visible in Daugavpils, where Valentin Trofimov, a 62-year-old watch repairman, says he will vote for Slesers' party.
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he → say → party
His reasons are straightforward — the country, he says, "lacks money for everything", including transport, education and medicine.
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he → say → transport
"Wages are too low," he said.
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he → say → ?
The Aporia
