It’s a highly controversial card, said to be one of the most underwhelming events in the promotion’s history in terms of fight quality, though that doesn’t mean anything for the card’s betting value.
asserted
that → ’ → value
We have 13 fights, perhaps the least interesting being the main event in which Cong Wang fights Natalia Silva for the flyweight championship.
asserted
Wang → have → championship
A whopping 10 of them are projected to end inside the distance with a finish.
asserted
10 → project → finish
The entire card begins at 5 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
asserted
card → begin → Paramount+
This might be the lowest-level UFC title fight in history, as Silva is the No. 1 contender for the vacant title but will fight Cong, who is rated No. 6.
uncertain
who → fight → Cong
Naturally, Cong comes in as a solid-sized underdog, as high as +194 on Novig.
asserted
Cong → come → Novig
Both of these fighters are efficient strikers, beating their significant strikes landed rated vs. absorbed by more than two to one.
asserted
Both → beat → one
Silva is undefeated in the UFC, defeating all eight opponents with ease, including six by unanimous decision.
asserted
Silva → defeat → decision
Cong has a little bit of a size advantage.
asserted
Cong → have → advantage
She’s listed 2 inches taller and has a 1-inch reach advantage.
asserted
She → list → advantage
We’re looking at a pure striking match here for the flyweight strap.
asserted
We → look → strap
If Cong could get takedowns, it would really make me more bullish on her to win, but Silva, a former kickboxer who has transitioned to MMA, probably won’t lose a pure striking battle.
uncertain
who → get → battle
It makes a path to victory for Cong very hard to see.
asserted
path → make → Cong
Silva has six unanimous decision wins in eight fights, and I’ll take her to do the same here in what could look like an easier sparring match.
uncertain
what → have → match
Silva loves to stay away from risk and take minimal damage en route to victory.
asserted
Silva → love → victory
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Payton Talbott
Talbott hasn’t been the most active bantamweight, but he’s still one of my favorites in the division.
asserted
he → ’ → division
He’s a massive weight bully at bantamweight, standing 5-foot-10 while somehow making 135 pounds.
asserted
He → ’ → pounds
Figueiredo has quit in multiple fights recently, and I wonder where his heart is at as a +450 ’dog here.
asserted
heart → quit → dog
He has lost four fights in his past five appearances, and the submission by guillotine was a bit embarrassing against Song Yadong.
asserted
submission → lose → Yadong
I’ll take Talbott to style his way to victory.
asserted
Talbott → take → victory
Prediction: Talbott wins inside the distance (-115, BetMGM).
asserted
Talbott → win → BetMGM
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Rest of the card
King Green vs. Esteban Ribovics: Fight goes the distance (+154, Polymarket).
asserted
Fight → get → +154
Roberto Soldic vs. Khaos Williams: Fight ends by KO/TKO (-200, BetRivers).
asserted
Fight → end → KO
Marcus McGhee vs. Anthony Romero: Pass.
Anthony Wint vs. Lucas Armand: Over 1.5 rounds (+188, Novig); small bet on fight goes to decision (+440, FanDuel); Wint wins and fight starts Round 2 (+185, DraftKings).
Johnny Walker vs. Mick Parkin: Parkin decision only — void if fight ends by finish (+115, DraftKings).
Jacobe Smith vs. Bruce Whitehead: Over 0.5 rounds (-240, DraftKings).
Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Alexander Hernandez: Dos Anjos by submission (10/1, DraftKings).
Marvin Vettori vs. Ismail Naurdiev: Fight goes the distance (-170, BetMGM).
Court McGee vs. Eric Nolan: McGee by decision (+350, BetMGM).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting.
asserted
he → go → betting
During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons.
asserted
he → showcase → market
While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
asserted
return → bet → 2022
The Aporia
