The robot finally had a winning week.
asserted
robot → have → week
Unfortunately for the robot, I had a better one.
asserted
I → have → one
I went 4-1 in Week 3 and added 3.06 units, bringing my season record to 9-6 and putting me in the black at +2.82 units.
asserted
I → go → units
GPT managed its first winning card, going 3-2 for a profit of 0.89 units.
asserted
GPT → manage → units
Also, I have finished ahead of GPT in units every week.
asserted
I → finish → units
This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners.
uncertain
page → contain → partners
If you sign up or place a wager, FOX News may be compensated.
uncertain
News → sign → wager
This content was created by a team that works independently from the FOX newsroom.
asserted
that → create → newsroom
We also settled our Week 3 disagreement in my favor.
asserted
We → settle → favor
I took Pittsburgh getting points against Cincinnati, while GPT laid them with the Bengals and the Steelers won outright.
asserted
Steelers → take → Bengals
We've got two more disagreements this week, and I could spoil them right now, but you'll have to keep reading.
uncertain
you → get → them
This is what's known in the business as a "tease."
asserted
what → know → tease
The rules remain the same.
asserted
rules → remain → ?
ChatGPT and I each make our five best bets using the same set of odds, and no selection can be priced worse than -120.
asserted
selection → make → -120
Every wager is sized to win one unit, which means a bet at -110 risks 1.10 units to win one, while a bet at +110 risks 0.91 units to win one.
asserted
bet → size → one
Odds were captured Saturday, Oct. 3, at 3 p.m. ET.
asserted
Odds → capture → p.m.
Before we get to the Week 4 picks, let’s review last week.
asserted
’s → get → picks
Week 3 NFL Betting Results
Dan’s Week 3 NFL Betting Picks (4-1, +3.06 units)
- New York Giants -2½ (-110) ✅ (+1 unit)
- Pittsburgh Steelers +3½ (-112) ✅ (+1 unit)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers Moneyline (+106) ❌ (-0.94 units)
- Las Vegas Raiders-New Orleans Saints Over 44 (-105) ✅ (+1 unit)
- Philadelphia Eagles-Chicago Bears Under 42½ (-110) ✅ (+1 unit)
I felt pretty good about this card and most of the picks hit without much sweat.
asserted
most → feel → sweat
I'm still annoyed that the Bucs played as badly as they did, although I'm going to complain that referees certainly didn't do them any favors.
asserted
referees → play → favors
GPT’s Week 3 NFL Betting Picks (3-2, +0.89 units)
- Buffalo Bills -7 (-112) ✅ (+1 unit)
- Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (+100) ✅ (+1 unit)
- Cincinnati Bengals -3½ (-104) ❌ (-1.04 units)
- Las Vegas Raiders +3 (+102) ✅ (+1 unit)
- Los Angeles Rams-Denver Broncos Under 44 (-107) ❌ (-1.07 units)
I didn't love the Bills pick and, honestly, they didn't deserve to cover with five turnovers.
asserted
they → love → turnovers
But the Chargers are just that bad, I guess.
asserted
I → guess → ?
The Jags and Raiders picks look great in hindsight, but I tried to warn GPT about backing the Bengals against the Steelers.
asserted
I → look → Steelers
The Rams and Broncos combined for 56 points, so that was a complete whiff.
asserted
that → combine → points
A week after betting against the Bengals (and winning), I'm going to flip the script and back Cincinnati.
asserted
I → bet → Cincinnati
This game perfectly fits my NFL gambling philosophy: fade what you saw most recently.
asserted
you → fit → what
The Bengals lost to the Steelers and the Jaguars pounded the Patriots.
asserted
Jaguars → lose → Patriots
Suddenly, everyone seems all-in on Jacksonville, but I just don't see it.
asserted
I → seem → it
The Jags are OK, but I still think the Bengals are better and I'm laying less than a field goal for the home squad.
asserted
I → think → squad
Getting Cincinnati below a field goal at home is the strongest argument for your pick, and Burrow’s protection gives the Bengals a way to attack Jacksonville’s pass rush.
asserted
protection → get → rush
My disagreement comes from Jacksonville’s performance on both sides of the ball, not simply its blowout of New England.
asserted
disagreement → come → England
Cincinnati’s defensive injuries also concern me, with Kyle Dugger out and Bryan Cook and B.J. Hill questionable.
asserted
Cook → concern → me
At +125, I prefer Jacksonville’s outright-win potential to laying points with the Bengals.
asserted
I → prefer → Bengals
I know I said I was off the Bucs, like, five days ago.
asserted
I → know → Bucs
But I reserve the right to change my mind whenever I want.
asserted
I → reserve → mind
If you don't like it, read someone else.
asserted
you → like → someone
I need the pageviews.
asserted
I → need → pageviews
In all seriousness, the Bucs should benefit from playing in the Tampa heat because they can run the ball and the Packers simply can't.
asserted
Packers → benefit → ball
Backing rookie Jalon Daniels in his first NFL start is a risk with Baker Mayfield out, but this bet is more about the ground game than the quarterback.
asserted
bet → back → quarterback
Long, sustained drives will wear out the Green Bay defense in the potentially extreme humidity, and I think Tampa can put a few of those together to keep this game within a field goal.
asserted
Tampa → wear → goal
Tampa Bay’s running game against Green Bay’s vulnerable front is a reasonable way to keep this close, especially with Bucky Irving cleared to play.
asserted
Irving → keep → this
…and 72 more, not listed.
The Aporia
