Burn Brexit, burn, signals Burnham — the City is with him
asserted
City → burn → him
Across London, businesses are breathing a collective sigh of relief at the prospect of closer ties with the EU, writes Chris Blackhurst
Every year, the leading business networking group, E2Exchange or E2E, holds a gala event in London, usually in Mayfair.
asserted
group → breathe → Mayfair
E2E connects ambitious SMEs, entrepreneurs and investors.
asserted
E2E → connect → SMEs
Bilimoria likes to begin by asking for a show of hands: who thinks Brexit was good for business; who believes it is bad?
asserted
it → like → business
On the first, not one hand ever shoots up — I tell a lie, over several years attending these occasions I once saw a solitary palm raised, by a Tory life peer and pro-Brexiteer, who appeared shamefaced as he indicated his support.
asserted
he → shoot → support
On the second, every person lifts their arm.
asserted
person → lift → arm
It is quite a sight, 200 or so senior business figures — many of them self-made, running companies, employing considerable workforces, creating wealth — responding in the same way.
asserted
many → make → way
The point is they come from across all sectors; the host, Bilimoria, is not linked to a political party.
asserted
host → come → party
He sits in the Lords as an independent crossbencher.
asserted
He → sit → crossbencher
As far as London business is concerned, leaving the EU was a commercial and economic disaster.
asserted
leaving → concern → EU
That the Brexiteers do not want to know.
asserted
Brexiteers → want → That
Whenever the opposition of the business community, which is just as strong today as it ever was (if anything it is stronger), is put to them, they feign ignorance or maintain it does not matter.
asserted
it → put → ignorance
They may cite the few business figures who are avowedly pro-Brexit.
uncertain
who → cite → figures
Then they slip into a discourse about taking back control, tightening our borders, releasing ourselves from the shackles of EU rule-makers, entering into trade agreements that we were barred from.
asserted
we → slip → that
Mention the ‘Brexit dividend’ to business leaders and they laugh
asserted
they → mention → leaders
What they don’t talk about are the extra costs of trading with our nearest neighbours; shutting off free and easy access to 450 million people; having to fill in forms and to hire people just to complete the bureaucracy; suffering delays to orders; being unable to hire skilled workers from the EU; queueing for interminable lengths of time to clear passport control (for these folks, their time is money); struggling to transfer money; finding services harder to import and export.
asserted
services → talk → money
As for those trade pacts, they at best replace what was already in place when we were part of the EU, and the focus is on items that do not exactly punch out the lights (Stilton cheese, tea and biscuits to Japan).
asserted
that → replace → Japan
Mention the “Brexit dividend” to them, as Bilimoria often does, and they laugh.
Bilimoria is on record as saying the 2016 referendum “should never have happened”, arguing that condensing such a complex, geopolitical issue into a simple binary vote was ridiculous.
asserted
condensing → mention → vote
Back then, George Soros, the legendary speculator who bet spectacularly against the pound in 1992, said: “The fact is that Brexit is a lose-lose proposition, harmful both to Britain and the European Union.
asserted
Brexit → bet → Britain
It cannot be undone, but people can change their minds.”
asserted
people → undo → minds
Here we are, 10 years later and the Prime Minister says that he believes the British people are ready to change their minds.
asserted
people → say → minds
At last, there is hope a calamitous commercial and economic wrong can be righted.
asserted
wrong → be → ?
There, mayor Sadiq Khan earlier this summer asked his economists to analyse the impact of the Brexit decision on growth, employment, wages and productivity, and to reach an overall verdict.
asserted
Khan → ask → verdict
They concluded in their report, that “on aggregate, and since 2016, the UK economy appears to have settled onto a level about 5 per cent below the path implied by the six major EU economies (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands and Poland).
asserted
economy → conclude → economies
In areas that relied heavily on EU workers, in accommodation, retail and food services, “their employment and total real wage levels dropped relative to the EU’s.
asserted
employment → rely → EU
On the capital, specifically: “London remains the UK’s most productive economic region by a considerable margin, with its contribution to national output increasing over the past decade to reach nearly 25 per cent.”
asserted
contribution → remain → cent
Then, they said this: “As these sectors employ nearly 60 per cent of London’s workforce and comprise nearly half of its GVA, the employment and wage effects in particular are considerable for London’s economy.
asserted
effects → say → economy
Therefore, Brexit has curtailed London’s potential to perform even better, in particular when it comes to productivity and nominal wage growth.”
asserted
it → curtail → productivity
Dire predictions that the financial district would suffer and lose its global hegemony have not come to pass.
asserted
district → suffer → pass
Xavier Rolet, head of the London Stock Exchange in 2016, said that 200,000 jobs would be at risk, while others put the figure at between 75,000 and 100,000.
asserted
others → say → 75,000
That has not occurred.
asserted
That → occur → ?
Rather, says the data from the Office for National Statistics, London has added 67,000 finance and insurance jobs in that decade.
asserted
London → say → decade
The think tank New Financial reckons London has remained ahead in the trading of foreign currencies, international interest rates and their derivatives, in cross-border bank claims, foreign bank assets and international debt issuance.
uncertain
London → reckon → claims
It’s still No 2 for total assets managed for investment funds, foreign direct investment in financial services and investment in fintech.
asserted
It → ’ → fintech
While the City has not collapsed and is still holding its own, just, it has not exactly powered ahead either, compared with New York
It’s down where the UK stock market is concerned but that may be due more to a weakened UK economy (arguably not helped by Brexit, where the Bank of England estimates the exit cost us 6 per cent of GDP) than the City suffering as a direct consequence of quitting.
uncertain
City → collapse → quitting
Some businesses that deal with the EU have relocated operations there.
asserted
that → deal → operations
Likewise, managers and risk assessors have been moved because EU regulators require a local presence.
asserted
regulators → move → presence
While the City has not collapsed and is still holding its own, just, it has not exactly powered ahead either, compared with New York.
asserted
it → collapse → York
Where once, financial firms headquartered themselves in London or sent their heaviest hitters there, viewing it as the springboard to Europe and its vast free EU market, that is now not happening so much.
asserted
that → headquarter → Europe
Last year, the long-time head of Goldman Sachs in London provoked shudders by relocating to Milan.
asserted
head → provoke → Milan
…and 13 more, not listed.
The Aporia
.jpeg?width=1200&auto=webp&quality=75)
