Carney at one point was a favourite to win on the predictions market
If relations between Canada the U.S. are cool now, the temperature could plummet if Prime Minister Mark Carney were to win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize this year.
uncertain
Carney → win → Prize
"[Donald] Trump will be unhappy whoever gets the Nobel," Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus at the University of Toronto, told The Associated Press.
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Wiseman → get → Press
"If Carney got it, it would make relations with Canada rockier than they are."
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they → get → Canada
Carney's name has been mentioned as a possible recipient of the prestigous prize, an award Trump has made no secret he wants to win.
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he → mention → secret
On Oct. 9, the Norwegian Nobel Committee will announce the winner of the annual Peace Prize in Oslo.
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Committee → announce → Oslo
Last year, the award went to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado.
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award → go → Machado
Machado presented Trump with her medal at the White House in January.
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Machado → present → January
Although Trump accepted it, the Nobel Committee stressed that the prize itself remains hers.
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prize → accept → it
Trump has repeatedly said he has ended eight wars, but experts say his invasion of Iran and attack on Venezuela make him an unlikely recipient this year.
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him → say → Venezuela
Prizes in other categories will also be awarded that week, with several Canadians being discussed as possible recipients.
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Canadians → award → recipients
The prize money this year is 12 million Swedish kronor (about $1.2 million US), whether awarded to an individual, small group of laureates or an organization.
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money → award → laureates
, the committee votes in October.
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committee → vote → October
Earlier this week, traders on the U.S.-based prediction market Kalshi put Carney's chances of winning at 14 per cent.
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traders → put → cent
His odds later fell.
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odds → fall → ?
"I don't think his chances are great," Haakon Gjerløw, acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, told CBC News.
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Gjerløw → think → News
His organization releases an annual list of potential candidates for the prize.
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organization → release → prize
Gjerløw said the Nobel laureate has to meet three broad criteria to win: international co-operation, disarmament and the promotion of peace.
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laureate → say → peace
"So it's whoever did the most for these three criteria over the past year," he said.
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he → do → year
He said Carney's name has likely been floated because of his resistance to Trump, along with the prime minister's efforts to strengthen ties with Europe — both seen as signs of international co-operation.
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name → say → operation
But Gjerløw pointed to other possible candidates, including the International Space Station.
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Gjerløw → point → Station
"It would be a symbol of what we can achieve when we are able to co-operate as humanity," he said.
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he → achieve → humanity
Gjerløw's other candidates include Mykola Kuleba and Save the Children, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, the Committee to Protect Journalists, and the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court.
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candidates → include → Justice
When The Scientist magazine asked its readers to suggest potential Nobel Prize winners in science, Canadian researcher Dr. Daniel Drucker was among the names put forward.
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Drucker → ask → names
The endocrinologist won a 2025 Breakthrough Prize in Life Sciences for discovering the GLP-1 hormone used in diabetes and obesity medications — including Ozempic, Wegovy and Mounjaro — that have changed the lives of millions of people around the world.
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that → win → world
Prediction market Kalshi has also listed Drucker as one of the top contenders to win.
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Kalshi → list → contenders
Another Canadian being discussed is poet and essayist Anne Carson, who has frequently been mentioned as a strong Nobel contender.
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who → discuss → contender
However, one of Canada's most famous authors, Margaret Atwood, is also a contender according to Kalshi, but at lower odds.
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one → accord → odds
The Handmaid's Tale author has won two Booker prizes, and for years her name has been mentioned as a possible candidate for the Nobel Prize.
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name → win → Prize
The last Canadian to win in this category was Alice Munro in 2013.
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Canadian → win → 2013
The Aporia
