The world often discusses the nuclear threat posed by Russia, but far less attention is paid to the nuclear risks within Russia itself, particularly those posed by ageing nuclear power plants, some of whose reactors are already more than 50 years old.
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some → discuss → reactors
At the same time, Russia is building nuclear power plants around the world, from Turkiye to Bangladesh, while promoting nuclear energy as a “sustainable” alternative to fossil fuels.
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Russia → build → fuels
Russian President Vladimir Putin regularly meets with foreign leaders to discuss existing and potential nuclear projects.
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Putin → meet → projects
Yet one question remains largely overlooked: what happens to these nuclear facilities when they reach the end of their operational lives?
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they → overlook → lives
During the Soviet period, nuclear power plants were built across the USSR, including in Lithuania.
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plants → build → Lithuania
As part of Lithuania’s accession to the European Union, the country was required to shut down the two Soviet-built reactors at the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant.
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country → require → Plant
The first reactor was closed in 2004 and the second in 2009.
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reactor → close → 2009
The decommissioning process has proved both extraordinarily expensive and time-consuming.
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process → prove → ?
By 2020, the estimated cost had reached 3.3 billion euros ($3.7bn), with only 49 percent of the planned work completed.
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percent → estimate → work
The process, initially scheduled for completion in 2038, is now expected to continue until 2049.
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process → schedule → 2049
Russia itself does not seem to be paying much attention to this question.
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Russia → seem → question
Rosenergoatom plans to decommission 35 reactors.
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Rosenergoatom → plan → reactors
Yet the company’s own estimates point to a funding shortfall of approximately 18.7 billion euros, while the total estimated cost of decommissioning is about 21 billion euros.
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cost → point → decommissioning
Actual decommissioning costs are usually significantly higher than initially projected.
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costs → project → ?
For example, the cost of decommissioning the former nuclear power plant in Lubmin, Germany, was initially estimated at 1 billion euros but is now estimated at 10 billion euros.
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cost → decommission → euros
For the time being, however, Russia appears to be postponing the most costly stages of decommissioning.
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Russia → appear → decommissioning
Rather than fully dismantling reactors soon after shutdown, it often places them in long-term “safe” storage, transferring much of the financial and technical burden into the future.
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it → dismantle → future
Deferred dismantling does not solve the problem, but merely postpones the costly stages of decommissioning, which is particularly concerning given Russia’s existing funding gap.
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which → solve → gap
Environmental NGO Bellona Foundation reports, based on Rosatom’s own projections, that by around 2037, Rosatom’s decommissioning and remediation obligations could exceed its net profit.
uncertain
obligations → report → profit
Moreover, the longer decommissioning is delayed, the greater the associated financial, technical and safety risks are likely to become.
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risks → delay → ?
Russia has inherited approximately 774,000 cubic metres of radioactive waste from the Soviet Union.
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Russia → inherit → Union
The upcoming decommissioning of 36 reactor units at eight nuclear power plants is expected to generate an additional 800,000 cubic metres of radioactive waste.
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decommissioning → expect → waste
Russia already has experience of what happens when industries leave major environmental liabilities behind.
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industries → have → liabilities
In the Kemerovo region, where around half of Russia’s coal is produced, mountains of waste from coal mining scar the landscape.
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mountains → produce → landscape
Some of this waste burns, polluting nearby communities.
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Some → burn → communities
When coal companies go bankrupt, the cost of dealing with what they leave behind can fall to the state and local communities.
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they → go → communities
But nuclear waste and decommissioned reactors cannot simply be abandoned if the money runs out.
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money → decommission → ?
The question therefore becomes even more important as Russia’s economic situation deteriorates: what will happen to all these megaprojects if the money needed to maintain, decommission and eventually dismantle them is no longer available?
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money → become → them
The countries where Russia is building its numerous nuclear power plants should therefore think about what happens if these projects cannot be maintained or later decommissioned as planned.
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projects → build → plants
They need a Plan B in case something goes wrong in Russia.
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something → need → Russia
And, as history has repeatedly shown, Russia’s political situation can change unpredictably.
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situation → show → ?
The Chornobyl disaster demonstrated how the Soviet authorities’ attempts to suppress information and downplay the scale of the accident fuelled public distrust and disillusionment, contributing to growing social and political unrest in the late Soviet period.
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attempts → demonstrate → period
Today, Russia’s continued neglect of nuclear waste and repeated postponement of nuclear plant decommissioning could similarly create conditions for both another environmental catastrophe and growing social unrest, particularly if authorities once again respond to such a crisis with silence or attempts to conceal its scale.
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authorities → repeat → scale
These risks are compounded by Russia’s deteriorating economic situation.
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risks → compound → situation
In an effort to sustain the war economy, the Russian government has also drastically weakened environmental regulations.
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government → sustain → regulations
National defence is now by far the largest single item in Russia’s federal budget, while environmental protection accounts for only a small fraction of government spending.
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protection → account → spending
Environmental disasters have repeatedly demonstrated that the Russian regime is unwilling to prioritise long-term environmental safety.
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regime → demonstrate → safety
Russia continues to operate an ageing shadow fleet to transport oil, and the environmental risks associated with that fleet were highlighted by the 2024 Black Sea oil spill, when two ageing Russian tankers released thousands of tonnes of fuel oil into the sea.
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tankers → continue → sea
The spill was described as the Black Sea region’s worst environmental disaster in decades.
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spill → describe → decades
This broader pattern of environmental negligence raises questions about how the country will manage its ageing nuclear infrastructure and the growing problem of nuclear waste.
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country → raise → waste
…and 14 more, not listed.
The Aporia
