Victoria is in the midst of a strange election campaign, with three oppositions vying to form government in eight weeks' time.
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oppositions → vie → time
It is campaigning as oppositions always do.
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oppositions → campaign → ?
After 12 years of Labor, it wants this election to be a referendum on the government.
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election → want → government
Regardless of the fact Queensland senator Pauline Hanson's party had provided limited details of its policies until the weekend, polls suggest they will attract around one in four voters in the state.
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they → provide → state
One Nation on Saturday released its full platform with a heavy emphasis on law and order and tax relief, matched with Trumpian rhetoric about locking political opponents in prison.
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Nation → release → prison
For the two months he has been premier, Carroll has been at pains to distance himself from the Labor governments of Daniel Andrews and Jacinta Allan, despite being a minister in their teams.
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Carroll → distance → teams
He does not want this election to be a referendum on Labor's three terms in office.
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election → want → office
On Sunday, Carroll promised to wind back land tax increases implemented by Labor in 2023 — another policy that undoes the work of his predecessors.
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that → promise → predecessors
Labor's attempt to sandbag seats
"Hi, I'm Ben Carroll, the airport rail premier,'' the premier grinned this week as he laid out how his own Niddrie electorate would get a brand new station in five years' time as part of the long-awaited rail line to the airport.
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electorate → sandbag → airport
It was a strategy that honed in on his own electorate — once considered safe but now marginal — and tried to tap into the longstanding desire of Melburnians for a train to the airport.
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that → hone → airport
It is a risky strategy given the project was championed by the Labor government for years then put on ice in favour of the Suburban Rail Loop.
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project → give → Loop
As a minister, Jacinta Allan said in 2022 trains would be running to Tullamarine in 2029.
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trains → say → 2029
Carroll now says trains will be running to East Keilor station in 2031.
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trains → say → 2031
No one will say when trains will arrive at the airport.
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trains → say → airport
It came hot on the heels of major delays to line and capacity upgrades on the Upfield line, which have now been pushed back to 2033 despite the line being chronically under-serviced.
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line → come → 2033
The delay has been described as a budget saving by Carroll and his treasurer, Colin Brooks.
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delay → describe → Carroll
Just days later, Carroll announced on social media Labor would pump $15 million into a basketball centre in his electorate if he is returned in November.
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he → announce → November
With little money available for big ticket items, Victorians can expect to see many more of these localised pledges from Labor as they try to sandbag as many seats as possible against an expected swing.
Carroll's changed approach yet to settle in
It may all be moot with a mood for a change of government sweeping Victoria.
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mood → expect → Victoria
Much of that is due to Labor's 12 years in office, and the perception that corruption was able to fester.
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corruption → fester → office
Even some of the most loyal Labor voters have turned on the government over the allegations of corruption on Big Build sites and the Allan government's apparent reluctance to move meaningfully on the issue.
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some → turn → issue
Carroll moved on Allan because research showed that under Allan the party was headed for electoral annihilation.
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party → move → annihilation
Voters had stopped listening to her, and she was subject to vitriol.
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she → stop → vitriol
Labor is yet to see a bump in its polling numbers, but the temperature in the political discourse has cooled.
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temperature → see → discourse
Since taking over, Carroll has introduced laws championed by the Coalition but dodged by Allan, including Jack's Law, giving police powers to use metal-detecting wands to search people for knives.
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Carroll → take → knives
He also cancelled a statue of Daniel Andrews and has promised to be more fiscally responsible.
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He → cancel → Andrews
Asked on Sunday about critiques that he was leading a pseudo-opposition Carroll said: "I'm different."
"I made it very clear.
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it → ask → opposition
You only have to look at what I've done already,'' he said, rattling off his list of policy pivots, including the royal commission, fixing pot-holed roads and tax relief.
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he → have → roads
"I'm working hard every day, day and night, to do what I think is in Victoria's interests."
Allan ultimately lost her job because she failed to take corruption allegations seriously or understand the public's growing demand for action.
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she → work → action
And while Carroll has leaned into the issue by calling a royal commission, it is a double-edged sword.
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it → lean → commission
On the one hand, it shows he has conviction and is willing to take on powerful unions and criminal gangs while potentially exposing his own side of politics to some very uncomfortable truths.
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he → show → truths
On the other hand, the public work of the royal commission will remind Victorians of what alleged criminality was allowed to fester under Allan and Andrews's watch.
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criminality → remind → watch
Questions of integrity at the forefront
Integrity is often pushed by opposition parties at elections, but at the past two state elections it has not been a priority for voters.
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it → push → voters
All sides recognise this year it is.
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it → recognise → ?
Greens MP Tim Read died two weeks ago from metastatic cancer.
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Read → die → cancer
He was an ardent campaigner to boost the power of the state's integrity agencies.
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He → boost → agencies
As they reflected on Read's life in parliament, MPs from across the chamber all nodded along at his dedication to fixing integrity powers.
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MPs → reflect → powers
Fittingly, one of parliament's last acts before being prorogued was agreeing to reform the Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission (IBAC).
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one → prorogue → Commission
It passed because all the parties negotiated to get an outcome.
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parties → pass → outcome
All these oppositions vying to win will soon learn that the business of government can be difficult.
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business → vie → government
Some Liberals have even said they are daunted at the task ahead, should they win.
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they → say → task
…and 2 more, not listed.
The Aporia
