Four weeks into the NFL season, which is still considered the quarter point, most sportsbooks have established six true Super Bowl contenders.
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sportsbooks → consider → contenders
The following teams are priced shorter than +1000 at most books: the Rams, Bills, 49ers, Ravens, Seahawks, and Chiefs.
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teams → price → books
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page → contain → partners
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News → sign → wager
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that → create → newsroom
The Jaguars, Bears, and Bengals headline the next tier, with odds typically ranging from +1500 to +2000.
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Jaguars → headline → +2000
The board has shifted considerably since Week 1.
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board → shift → Week
Buffalo has nearly caught Los Angeles as the Super Bowl favorite.
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Buffalo → catch → favorite
San Francisco and Kansas City have surged past several teams.
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Francisco → surge → teams
Meanwhile, the Patriots, Chargers, Eagles, and Lions have fallen outside the top 10.
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Patriots → fall → top
The 0-4 Chargers have cratered to +10000.
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Chargers → cratere → +10000
The broader hierarchy, however, looks about right.
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hierarchy → look → ?
The Rams haven't been the juggernaut some expected.
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some → expect → ?
However, Myles Garrett, Puka Nacua, and Aaron Donald have yet to share the field.
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Garrett → have → field
Even at 2-2, Los Angeles has the NFL's most talented roster.
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Angeles → have → roster
Tight end Dalton Kincaid, edge Greg Rousseau, and second-year defensive tackle Deon Wallers have each ascended to status among the best at their positions.
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Kincaid → ascend → positions
At +58, the 49ers own the NFL's best point differential.
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49ers → own → differential
Their championship outlook is less complicated than most: if they can stay reasonably healthy, they are good enough to win the Super Bowl.
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they → stay → Bowl
Unfortunately, reasonable health has eluded San Francisco for most of the past two seasons.
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health → elude → seasons
The 4-0 Chiefs have returned to a familiar formula: winning games in the final seconds without looking particularly impressive in doing so,
There is plenty to like.
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Chiefs → return → seconds
Kenneth Walker has been the NFL's best running back, leading the league in rushing by more than 110 yards.
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Walker → lead → yards
Rookies Mansoor Delane, R Mason Thomas, and Emmett Johnson have already made an impact and should only improve.
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Delane → make → impact
Kansas City is also undefeated without starting left tackle Josh Simmons playing a snap.
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Simmons → start → snap
No one knows whether Simmons will play at all this season
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Simmons → know → ?
Tyquan Thornton, who had developed into Mahomes' most explosive receiver, could miss the rest of the year with a fractured ankle.
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who → develop → ankle
Most troubling, the defense has gone three consecutive games without recording a sack.
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defense → go → sack
No contender has a wider range of plausible outcomes than Kansas City.
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contender → have → City
The Chiefs could enter January as the Super Bowl favorite.
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Chiefs → enter → favorite
They could just as easily discover that their young roster is still a year or two away.
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roster → discover → ?
Without a last-minute collapse by Dallas, the Ravens would be 2-2 and facing familiar questions about their ability to finish close games.
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Ravens → face → games
Lamar Jackson remains too erratic as a passer for a quarterback of his stature, and Baltimore's offensive line is one of the weaker units among AFC contenders.
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line → remain → contenders
Granted, it helps that Zay Flowers has developed into one of football's most dynamic offensive weapons.
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Flowers → grant → weapons
The Seahawks receive surprisingly little attention for a defending Super Bowl champion.
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Seahawks → receive → champion
Sam Darnold is getting healthier.
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Darnold → get → ?
And Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a mismatch against every opposing defense.
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Njigba → have → defense
Seattle's path could ultimately hinge on the outcome of the NFC West.
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path → hinge → West
The Seahawks are considerably more dangerous at home than on the road, a distinction that becomes magnified in January.
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that → magnify → January
That makes Sunday's game against San Francisco one of the most consequential matchups of the young season.
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game → make → season
In any event, losing Kenneth Walker in free agency will likely prevent Seattle from reaching the dominance it achieved last season.
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it → lose → dominance
Fortunately, the Seahawks don't need to be as good as last year to still rank among the best teams in the league.
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Seahawks → need → league
…and 4 more, not listed.
The Aporia
