Physicists have long struggled to predict the movement of three objects exerting gravitational force on one another.
asserted
Physicists → struggle → one
It is popularly known as the three-body problem.
asserted
It → know → problem
Monday night, Quebec may have created its own three-party problem.
uncertain
Quebec → create → problem
While the Parti Québécois was able to form government, it fell just five seats short of a majority.
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it → form → majority
For reasons yet to be determined, the PQ electorate did not come out at full force.
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electorate → determine → force
While polling averages had them at 29 per cent with a big lead among francophone voters, the party underperformed and could barely reach 28 per cent in support.
uncertain
party → have → support
It was held to a minority.
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It → hold → minority
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The Quebec Liberal Party won 40 seats up from 21 in 2022 and was able to regain ground in historically liberal strongholds of the province including a foothold in Quebec City.
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Party → win → City
The incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec was wiped off the map with zero seats.
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Québec → wipe → seats
And being in a minority, the leader of the PQ, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, will have to work with one of the two.
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leader → have → two
QS survived the doom and gloom scenarios and lost only three seats, electing nine MNAs, resisting the PQ assault in eastern Montreal.
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QS → survive → Montreal
QS is a left-wing party that is also separatist, making it a natural ally to the PQ.
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it → make → PQ
However, they are much further to the left of the PQ, advocating for rent control, public grocery stores and higher taxes.
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they → advocate → control
They also take a much more pro-immigration position than the PQ, causing a lot of friction between the two parties.
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They → take → parties
Quebec Solidaire was able to elect candidates only in core urban ridings, winning 12 per cent of the vote province wide.
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Solidaire → elect → vote
Their platform makes it difficult for them in other parts of the province.
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it → make → province
PSPP has spent the last four years broadening his coalition beyond sovereigntists which, was traditionally seen as left of centre.
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which → spend → centre
While working with QS to hold a referendum might be a temptation for the PQ, the election results would advise otherwise.
uncertain
results → work → PQ
In complete contrast to QS, the Conservatives caused the big surprise of the night.
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Conservatives → cause → night
Many doubted that the party had the organizational strength to translate its strong polling numbers into seats.
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party → doubt → seats
They won 19, the first Conservative seats in Quebec in nearly a century.
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They → win → century
Winning in key francophone regions, taking almost 21 per cent of the vote and finishing second in multiple ridings, the Conservatives have been detrimental to the PQ majority.
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Conservatives → win → majority
Éric Duhaime, its leader, wants to cut spending by $47 billion over five years,cut taxes, and offer private-sector-led solutions to government problems.
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Duhaime → want → problems
Monday night, the Conservatives won in multiple regions scoring in areas even the federal Conservatives have not yet been successful.
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Conservatives → win → areas
Duhaime is determined to break with the Quebec model, of statism and move the province to the right.
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Duhaime → break → right
On the separation question, the Conservatives are aiming to occupy the political space left vacant by the CAQ: that of a third voice, neither separatist, nor federalist.
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Conservatives → aim → voice
A voice that sees itself as more autonomist and fights for greater provincial powers such as immigration.
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that → see → immigration
While the PQ has moved closer to the Conservatives, on some policy questions, such as on cutting public spending, the two remain fundamentally divided on Quebec sovereignty.
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two → move → sovereignty
Every major decision made by the PQ government will be shaped by two competing gravitational forces.
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decision → make → forces
The PQ will soon find itself not fighting opponents but preventing them from pulling it apart.
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itself → find → it
QS will pull to the left.
asserted
QS → pull → left
The CPQ will pull to the right.
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CPQ → pull → right
The PQ won power on Monday night.
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PQ → win → night
Whether it can remain stable under those diametrically opposed forces is another question entirely.
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remain → remain → forces
As difficult as the path forward is now for PSPP and the referendum, do not write him off yet.
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path → write → him
He has proven to be an effective force, holding true to his principles.
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He → prove → principles
He has led the PQ from three MNAs in 2022 to 59 today.
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He → lead → 59
The PQ cannot remain trapped in that three-party dynamic forever.
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PQ → remain → dynamic
At some point, it will have to make a move and try to absorb one of the two.
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it → have → two
Taking a closer look at the results tonight, there is no doubt the majority slipped away from him in Conservative party held areas.
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majority → take → areas
…and 11 more, not listed.
The Aporia
