There’s a lot we don’t know about what has happened in Siberia. What we do know: A 28-year-old laboratory worker at an anti-plague research institute in Irkutsk died last week after developing severe pneumonia.
asserted
worker → ’ → pneumonia
Russian authorities have described her illness as pneumonia of unknown origin and said tests found no connection to the dangerous pathogens she worked with.
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she → describe → pathogens
But reports have circulated that she may have accidentally broken a test tube containing plague bacteria, and the hospital where she was treated has been quarantined.
uncertain
she → circulate → bacteria
Around 200 people who may have had contact with her have reportedly been placed under observation.
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who → have → observation
So, no, it’s not Covid again.
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it → ’ → ?
But the possibility of a laboratory accident involving Yersinia pestis, the bacterium responsible for plague, is sufficiently alarming to have attracted international attention.
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possibility → involve → attention
Pneumonic plague is particularly dangerous because it can spread between people through respiratory droplets.
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it → spread → droplets
However, it is a bacterial disease rather than a viral one, meaning it’s generally treatable with antibiotics when caught quickly.
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it → mean → antibiotics
It’s also not that transmissible: you’d have to be in very close contact with an infected person to catch it.
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you → ’ → it
Dr. Simon Clarke, an associate professor of cellular microbiology at the University of Reading, puts the lab-leak theory in useful perspective.
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Clarke → put → perspective
“It is not unheard of for pathogens to escape from labs,” he says.
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he → escape → labs
High-containment laboratories are designed around precisely this possibility, with multiple layers of protection, safety cabinets, airflow systems and strict procedures.
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laboratories → design → protection
Lab-acquired infections are rare, and “a broken tube would not automatically lead to exposure or infection.”
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tube → acquire → exposure
But it is unusual, he says, for test tubes to be used that much at all these days, which raises its own questions.
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which → say → questions
All of this means that “an awful lot must have gone wrong” for a worker to become infected in the way that’s been reported.
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that → mean → way
The Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute is a large research facility that deals with the kind of plague bacteria still circulating among animals in Siberia (and other parts of the world.)
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that → deal → world
Irkutsk itself is a long way away from major international cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg — the distance is similar to the distance between New York and Los Angeles, necessitating seven-hour flights or multi-day train rides across desolate landscapes — and the Siberian region, which borders Mongolia and China, has very different weather patterns to the European parts of Russia, which border places like Finland and Ukraine.
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which → necessitate → Finland
All of this context is important, when you consider how successful a quarantine might be and why a plague lab might be based in Irkutsk in the first place.
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lab → consider → place
Indeed, the whole institute is currently locked down with around 60 people inside, according to local media reports.
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institute → lock → reports
But none of this is fully reassuring to a world that’s still reeling from the Covid pandemic.
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that → reel → pandemic
The Trump administration says it is watching the situation.
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it → say → situation
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Monday that he was “monitoring it closely,” and that he doesn’t believe it’s a cause for alarm.
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it → say → alarm
American agencies including the CDC and the State Department are, like everybody else, seeking more information.
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agencies → include → information
Unfortunately, the Trump administration has somewhat kneecapped itself in this regard.
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administration → kneecap → regard
The U.S. formally withdrew from the World Health Organization in January, ending its membership, funding and personnel involvement amid claims of political motivation and a lack of transparency.
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U.S. → withdraw → transparency
The WHO isn’t perfect — and Russia is certainly not the most transparent country in the world — but it was the best we had when it came to information-sharing during Covid.
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it → have → Covid
America can, of course, still gather intelligence on the current situation.
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America → gather → situation
It can certainly speak directly to Russia.
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It → speak → Russia
But global disease surveillance works best when information moves quickly and scientists and public health officials have established channels through which they can share it.
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they → work → it
And although Putin and Trump have shared a few friendly visits, Trump himself complained during the early days of the Ukraine war that he’d have a phone call with Putin that he thought had gone well and then hear a couple of hours later that Russia had just bombed a hospital.
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Russia → share → hospital
America is currently trying to work out what its place is in the next era of biomedical science.
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place → try → science
The Trump administration has restricted federal support for research, disrupted the NIH, made it harder for talented foreign students to get visas to study at elite universities in the US, and made it harder for US scientists to collaborate with scientists across the world.
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scientists → restrict → world
When I asked researchers in cutting-edge genetics and cancer research in New York what the effect had been on their work, they said that it had been slowed and fractured to the point that they believed China would now take over as the global leader in biomedical breakthroughs.
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China → ask → breakthroughs
In their view, the damage has already been done.
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damage → do → view
Being longtime allies, China and Russia already have closer comms than the U.S. has with either country.
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U.S. → have → country
If China becomes the world leader in medical research, it will bring Russia along for the ride.
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it → become → ride
They will share developments and experiments both publicly and privately, especially during times of emergency and quarantine.
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They → share → emergency
Current research suggests America still has significant advantages in the quality and commercial reach of its biomedical science.
uncertain
America → suggest → science
But China is closing the gap, particularly in areas such as clinical trials, drug development and manufacturing.
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China → close → trials
The country that can sequence a pathogen fastest, develop a diagnostic fastest, test a treatment fastest and manufacture it at scale is building the infrastructure that determines how quickly it can protect its own population when something unexpected happens.
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something → sequence → population
…and 13 more, not listed.
The Aporia
