France’s Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu is unlikely to have had a quiet weekend.
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Minister → have → weekend
For almost two weeks, students across France have been protesting, angered by class cancellations, overcrowded classrooms and run-down school buildings.
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students → protest → cancellations
The protests have increasingly been overshadowed by serious clashes with police.
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protests → overshadow → police
At the same time, the government accuses the left-wing party La France Insoumise (LFI) of exploiting the protests for political purposes and fueling the blockades.
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government → accuse → blockades
On Friday, Education Minister Edouard Geffray tried to ease tensions by meeting with student representatives.
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Geffray → try → representatives
Instead, a nationwide day of protest took place on Tuesday.
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day → take → Tuesday
On Sunday evening, the prime minister took charge of the crisis.
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minister → take → crisis
In a letter to several ministers, Lecornu called for concrete proposals: Class cancellations should be addressed more quickly, school buildings should be upgraded to cope with hotter summers, and the controversial university admissions system "Parcoursup" should become more transparent.
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system → call → summers
Initial decisions, along with funding and a timetable, are expected to be announced this month.
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decisions → expect → funding
But Macron's ally Lecornu faces one key problem: He has to promise young people more government support while his government is imposing an austerity budget on the entire country.
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government → face → country
A signal to the markets
Last Thursday, the government submitted its 2027 budget proposal to parliament.
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government → submit → parliament
The budget deficit is expected to fall from a projected 5.4 % of economic output this year to 5% in 2027.
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deficit → expect → 2027
To make up the shortfall, the government plans to make spending cuts worth billions of euros.
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cuts → make → euros
France is already subject to an EU excessive deficit procedure and is expected to bring its budget gap back toward the 3% limit set by the European Union.
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France → expect → Union
"It is an austerity budget," says Eileen Keller of the Franco-German Institute (dfi) in Ludwigsburg.
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Keller → say → Ludwigsburg
The government wants to show "that it is taking responsibility" and lay out a path toward reducing the deficit.
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it → want → deficit
The government plans to cut spending by the state itself, local and regional authorities, as well as in the social sector.
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government → plan → sector
Overall, Paris aims to reduce the budget by around €54 billion ($60.8 billion) compared with previously projected spending plans.
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Paris → aim → plans
Pensions alone are expected to make savings to the tune of around €5.5 billion, and more cuts are also planned in healthcare.
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cuts → expect → healthcare
Whether the budget will actually be passed in its current form is still wide open.
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passed → pass → form
Lecornu's government does not have a parliamentary majority and relies on opposition votes.
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government → have → votes
But with presidential elections coming next spring, an austerity budget is even less attractive to the opposition than it would otherwise be.
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it → come → opposition
The issue of education in particular shows that France's problem cannot be reduced to the formula "The state is cutting too much."
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state → show → much
The education budget is set to increase by around €1.2 billion in 2027.
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budget → set → 2027
At the same time, the government expects around 1.7 million fewer schoolchildren by 2035.
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government → expect → 2035
For Keller, this contradiction shows that money is only part of the problem.
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money → show → problem
Public dissatisfaction is linked to what she calls "priorities" and the fundamental direction of the education system, including the transition from school to higher education.
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she → link → education
Financing education is getting more costly
The difficult outlook for France is compounded by another factor: the financial markets.
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outlook → finance → factor
For many years, France was used to financing its high levels of debt at relatively low interest rates.
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France → use → rates
The yield on 10-year French government bonds has risen sharply in recent weeks.
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yield → rise → weeks
At times, the spread over German government bonds widened to around 1.5 percentage points, the highest level since the euro debt crisis in the 2010s.
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spread → widen → 2010s
The business daily Les Echos ran the headline on Monday that the country was in the "eye of the cyclone."
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country → run → cyclone
Market skepticism is hitting France at a particularly difficult time.
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skepticism → hit → time
With debt at around 119% of economic output, France is almost twice as heavily indebted as Germany, whose debt ratio stands at around 64%.
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ratio → stand → %
Step by step, old government bonds that were issued at very low interest rates are increasingly having to be replaced with new and more expensive debt.
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that → issue → debt
Estimated around €74 billion, the government will have to spend more on its interest payments than it can afford to spend on schools or defense.
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it → estimate → schools
According to Finance Minister Roland Lescure, interest payments already consume more than half of the overall budget deficit.
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payments → accord → deficit
Keller stresses that it is therefore crucial that France continues to be seen by investors as a "credible debtor."
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France → stress → debtor
These days, however, that credibility depends on more than just economic data.
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credibility → depend → data
Markets keeping a close eye on election campaigns
In spring 2027, the French will elect a new president.
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French → keep → president
…and 12 more, not listed.
The Aporia
