In Manhattan, a $1 million condo counts as “entry level” — and developers are building dramatically fewer of them.
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developers → count → them
The supply of the city’s most affordable new-development condos is projected to plunge 74% through 2029 compared with the past decade, according to a new report from Corcoran Sunshine Marketing Group obtained by The Post.
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supply → project → Post
Corcoran defines the entry-level tier as new condos priced below $1,800 per square foot.
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Corcoran → define → foot
For a roughly 500- to 1,000-square-foot apartment, that translates to a purchase price of up to roughly $900,000 to $1.8 million — hardly bargain territory for most Americans.
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that → translate → Americans
Yet even homes in that price bracket are becoming increasingly scarce.
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homes → become → bracket
Over the past decade, an average of 165 such units came to market annually.
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average → come → market
That amounts to a 74% collapse in what developers consider the lowest rung of Manhattan’s new-condo market.
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developers → amount → market
Meanwhile, developers are increasingly concentrating on more expensive homes.
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developers → concentrate → homes
Nearly half of the roughly 5,900 condos in the Core Manhattan pipeline are expected to fall into the “mid-market” category, priced between $1,800 and $2,400 per square foot.
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half → expect → foot
Just 3% are classified as entry level.
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% → classify → level
At the opposite end, super-luxury supply — $3,400 to $5,000 per square foot — is projected to rise 88% from its 10-year annual average, while ultra-luxury supply above $5,000 per square foot is expected to soar 285% — putting a 500- to 1,000-square-foot unit at roughly $1.7 million to $5 million or more.
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supply → project → million
“The cost of doing business has gotten much higher across the board for developers,” Corcoran Sunshine President Kelly Kennedy Mack told The Post.
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Mack → do → Post
“Construction and especially labor costs have skyrocketed in recent years, and desirable development parcels are getting fewer and farther between and more expensive in the city — not to mention that it’s gotten increasingly difficult to put together the types of site assemblages that support large-scale developments, which are often the type that would include entry-level inventory.
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that → skyrocket → inventory
The shift comes even as Manhattan’s overall condo pipeline looks relatively stable on the surface.
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pipeline → come → surface
Corcoran expects about 1,473 new for-sale units a year in Core Manhattan from 2026 through 2029, only slightly below the 10-year historical average of 1,491.
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Corcoran → expect → 1,491
But that figure is being propped up by four exceptionally large developments, each containing more than 200 units — two in Midtown West/Lincoln Square and two on the Lower East Side.
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figure → prop → Side
Without those four projects, the projected annual pipeline would be roughly 25% lower.
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pipeline → project → projects
And compared with Manhattan’s pre-pandemic building boom, the slowdown is more pronounced.
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slowdown → compare → boom
New for-sale introductions averaged roughly 1,745 units annually between 2016 and 2020.
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introductions → average → 2016
Projected supply through 2029 is 16% below that level.
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supply → project → level
Conversions have become an increasingly important dividing line between New York’s rental and ownership markets.
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Conversions → become → markets
About 79% of the coming for-sale pipeline consists of ground-up new construction.
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% → come → construction
Rental-to-condo conversions, which accounted for about 20% of the new-development market before 2019, are expected to make up just 4% of the pipeline over the next several years.
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which → account → years
“It’s also worth mentioning that the city’s latest tax abatement programs have specifically incentivized rental development, and on top of that, recent policy changes have made rental-to-condo conversions very difficult to pull off.
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conversions → ’ → condo
Those were previously a significant source of entry-level for-sale inventory in the market,” Mack said.
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Mack → say → market
Office conversions are doing little to replenish the condo market, either.
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conversions → do → market
They represent just 5% of Core Manhattan’s for-sale pipeline, as tax-abatement programs encouraging office-to-residential conversions are available only for rental projects.
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programs → represent → projects
About 71% of Core Manhattan’s coming rental pipeline consists of office-to-apartment conversions — nearly 13,000 units — compared with just 5,250 units expected from ground-up construction.
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% → come → construction
The result is a growing divide: New York is still adding tens of thousands of homes, but an increasing share of them will be rentals rather than properties New Yorkers can buy.
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Yorkers → grow → them
Across Manhattan and the selected Brooklyn and Queens neighborhoods tracked by Corcoran Sunshine, roughly 52,000 market-rate homes are expected to come online through 2029.
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homes → select → 2029
About 77% will be rentals, up from roughly 70% during the previous decade, while for-sale introductions overall are projected to decline 11%.
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introductions → project → sale
The squeeze on homes for sale extends beyond Manhattan.
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squeeze → extend → Manhattan
Across the report’s “Secondary Markets” — Upper Manhattan, Western Queens and portions of Brooklyn — the for-sale pipeline through 2029 is projected to run 18% below the 10-year historical average.
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pipeline → project → average
Central Brooklyn faces the sharpest pullback, with annual introductions projected to plunge 47%, while Northwest Brooklyn is expected to see a 16% decline.
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Brooklyn → face → decline
Western Queens — including Long Island City and Astoria — is one of the few exceptions.
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Queens → include → exceptions
Annual for-sale introductions there are projected to rise 5% from the historical average, while the area’s share of the secondary-market condo pipeline is expected to grow to 33%.
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share → project → %
Within Manhattan, the geography of new development is also shifting.
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geography → shift → development
The Upper East Side is projected to see annual condo introductions jump 54% above its decade average, driven primarily by several larger projects along Madison Avenue, while Midtown is projected to see a 46% increase.
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Midtown → project → increase
The Financial District and Battery Park City, by contrast, are projected to see annual for-sale introductions plunge 86%, leaving the area with just 2% of Core Manhattan’s future condo supply.
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introductions → project → supply
And even the 52,000 homes currently in the broader development pipeline aren’t guaranteed to arrive on schedule.
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homes → guarantee → schedule
…and 1 more, not listed.
The Aporia
