WASHINGTON (AP) — Republicans are entering the final month of the midterm campaign increasingly anxious that the $1 billion at their disposal may not be enough to fend off sweeping losses as the party reckons with President Donald Trump’s unpopularity, persistent cost concerns and the fallout from the war in Iran.
uncertain
party → enter → Iran
The cash advantage, spread out across a half-dozen groups, is driven largely by the Trump-aligned MAGA Inc., which had nearly $416 million in cash on hand at the end of August and began stepping up its spending on critical races in September.
asserted
which → spread → September
But that money may have come too late, forcing the president’s group to pay much higher rates because of the shrinking availability of air time.
uncertain
money → come → time
Four Republican Senate campaign officials said groups that reserved advertising time last spring paid much lower rates than MAGA Inc. and its affiliated groups.
asserted
that → say → Inc.
Instead, by waiting until September, Trump-connected organizations are sometimes paying more than five times what they would have spent if they acted earlier.
asserted
they → wait → what
A representative of MAGA Inc. familiar with the group’s strategy said its spending has allowed Republicans to keep races more competitive than they would have been otherwise.
asserted
they → say → races
In some cases, the group has been the only one on the air criticizing Democratic candidates.
asserted
group → criticize → candidates
The MAGA Inc. representative and the Republican Senate campaign officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal strategy.
asserted
representative → speak → strategy
The challenge is acute in places like Texas, where Trump will travel on Wednesday for the second time in a week to stump for Republican Ken Paxton’s Senate campaign.
asserted
Trump → travel → campaign
The state hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1988, yet MAGA Inc. has spent more than $22 million in the past month, according to the ad tracking firm AdImpact.
uncertain
Inc. → elect → firm
Another group, Texas PAC, which is aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, has spent more than $83 million on advertising in the past month, an extraordinary amount to protect what’s normally a safe Republican seat.
asserted
what → align → month
One of those advertisements, which featured Paxton’s estranged wife saying she’s supporting the full Republican ticket, aired across the United States last weekend during a football game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Houston Texans.
asserted
she → feature → Cowboys
Candidates are charged a lower advertising rate than outside groups, so the late infusion of super PAC cash has come at a steep price.
asserted
infusion → charge → price
MAGA Inc., which is running ads primarily on streaming services, has been charged roughly $894 per airing, according to AdImpact, while Texas PAC has been charged roughly $809 for a mix of broadcast and streaming.
uncertain
PAC → run → broadcast
That compares with about $290 for Talarico’s campaign, also on broadcast and streaming.
asserted
That → compare → broadcast
Those averages mask some of the more glaring disparities.
asserted
averages → mask → disparities
For example, during a football game last month, Texas PAC was charged $450,000 to air a single spot in the Austin market.
asserted
PAC → charge → market
Talarico’s campaign paid $50,000 for a spot during the same game in the same market, according to AdImpact.
uncertain
campaign → pay → AdImpact
Elections are a referendum on the power of money
The 2026 campaign is shaping up as a referendum on the power of money in American politics.
asserted
campaign → shape → politics
Democrats freely acknowledge their disadvantage, relying instead on anti-Trump sentiment among voters and targeted messaging on issues like corruption.
asserted
Democrats → acknowledge → corruption
Some Republicans, meanwhile, are open about the challenge of trying to spend their way out of a tough campaign at this late stage.
asserted
Republicans → try → stage
Neil Newhouse, a longtime Republican pollster, echoed concerns that his party was deploying its cash too late.
asserted
party → echo → cash
“After the votes are counted, I think we’re going to find the most effective advertising in terms of communicating message and moving voters and poll numbers, the most effective time was advertising that happened well before Labor Day, not after it,” he said.
asserted
he → count → it
Thune’s group began pulling back in North Carolina last week, a sign of the party’s challenge in the Senate race there.
asserted
group → begin → race
The state’s outgoing Sen. Thom Tillis has been increasingly vocal about his party’s vulnerabilities and recently said that, even with a strong cash advantage, “in the last month, you pretty much have to place your bets.”
asserted
you → say → bets
“If we have endless resources, then we should spend endlessly in every state,” he said.
asserted
he → have → state
“Absent endless resources, you’ve got to make data-driven decisions about where you can win.”
asserted
you → get → decisions
The midterms mark the first national election since the Supreme Court in June erased limits on how much political parties can spend in coordination with candidates for Congress and president, injecting even more money into a political system already awash in cash.
asserted
parties → mark → cash
Money alone doesn’t translate into victory
There’s plenty of evidence that money alone doesn’t translate into victory.
asserted
money → translate → victory
Democrat Kamala Harris entered the final stretch of the 2024 campaign with significantly more money than Trump but went on to lose every critical swing state and the White House.
asserted
Harris → enter → state
Elon Musk’s $25 million didn’t lift his preferred candidate to a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat last year.
asserted
million → lift → seat
And Tom Steyer didn’t advance to the general election in the California governor’s race despite pumping $216 million of his own money into the campaign.
asserted
Steyer → advance → campaign
The $1 billion that Republicans have amassed compares to at least roughly $579 million held by a comparable collection of major Democratic groups.
asserted
Republicans → amass → groups
Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said his party is facing an “obscene” amount of spending that could swamp them in the midterms.
uncertain
that → say → midterms
“We’re never going to have as much money as them,” he said in an interview.
asserted
he → go → interview
“I sum up the election in this sentence: Can a massive Republican advantage in money beat a massive Democratic advantage in better candidates and political climate?
asserted
advantage → sum → candidates
I bet it can.”
asserted
it → bet → ?
In addition to Texas, Democrats have mounted competitive Senate campaigns in states like Ohio, Maine, Iowa and Michigan.
asserted
Democrats → mount → Ohio
A similar dynamic has emerged in governors’ races from Florida and Georgia to Wisconsin, Ohio and Nevada.
asserted
dynamic → emerge → Wisconsin
Former President Barack Obama is stepping up his involvement in the midterms and will headline a fundraiser for Senate candidates on Wednesday.
asserted
Obama → step → Wednesday
…and 13 more, not listed.
The Aporia
