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Shell expects refineries to almost double the profit from every barrel of fuel made

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correspondent, J. A. E. (2026, October 7). Shell expects refineries to almost double the profit from every barrel of fuel made. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/oct/07/shell-refineries-forecast-to-make-double-the-profit-from-every-barrel-of-fuel

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The Guardian · collected 2026-10-07 · by Jillian Ambrose Energy correspondent

Quick Summary

Shell’s refineries are projected to nearly double their profit margin to $42 per barrel of fuel from July to September, compared to $24 a barrel in the second quarter and a previous high of around $28 mid-2022. This significant increase is attributed to global shortages and rising refined fuel prices relative to crude oil costs, particularly due to refinery shutdowns in conflict zones like the Middle East and Russia. Shell reported an almost $10 billion profit for the second quarter of 2026, more than double that of the same period last year, driven by high gas and diesel prices despite a slight drop in global oil prices.
Written by AI on 2026-10-07, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

In its third quarter 2026 outlook, Shell upgraded its integrated gas production forecast to 740,000 to 780,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOED), a significant increase from the previous estimate of 570,000 to 630,000 BOED, driven by the acquisition of Canadian energy firm ARC Resources. Additionally, Shell expects its refining profit margins for chemicals and products to nearly double to $42 per barrel, up from $24 in the second quarter. This growth is attributed to global fuel shortages following refinery damage in the Middle East and Russia, driving up prices for refined fuels like diesel. The outlook highlights Shell's strategic focus on energy transition while maintaining robust financial performance amid geopolitical tensions.

Written for “Shell Profit Outlook Growth” on 2026-11-04, grounded in this article and the 3 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Shell Profit Outlook Growth
Economy/Business · 4 article(s) covering the same event. Compare every outlet's account →

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This article reads unscored and hedges 0% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
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Hedges 0 of 5 claims Outlet record 64/100
Evening Standard
Hedges 0 of 10 claims Outlet record 64/100
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

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Claims extracted
18
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
0%
0 of 18 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
66/100
The Guardian's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
4
Economy/Business
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-07 · how these are computed

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The Guardian · 2929 article(s) · 6 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 6 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Jillian Ambrose Energy correspondent
10 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 The investigation found there were “high levels of stress and concern” within the control room over how staff would be able to keep the power system balanced as renewable energy replaces legacy fossil fuel power plants in line with the government’s net zero ambitions.
🔮 They add to the growing costs of balancing the grid, which reached a total of £505m in September alone, the highest monthly cost recorded, and are expected to reach £3.2bn over the next year.
🔮 Days after Donald Trump announced a deal to import Russian diesel into the US in an effort to lower soaring pump prices, the world’s energy watchdog has warned that the global fuel shortage will drag into 2027.
🔮 Drivers will be able to see live petrol prices on Google Maps for the first time from Thursday, in a move that will help motorists shop around for the cheapest fuel.
🔮 Shell’s refineries are expected to make almost double the profit from every barrel of fuel produced owing to record prices caused by shortages around the world.
🔮 “It will take decades to wean off from that dependency,” Rossi said in an interview with the BBC.
🔮 Household energy bills in Great Britain are predicted to soar by £276 a year for the typical household from January as the impact of the Middle East war continues through the coldest months of winter.
🔮 With elections due next year in eight EU countries including France, Italy, Spain and Poland, leaders are scrambling to head off the potential fallout from what analysts have warned could be one of the continent’s biggest energy shocks in decades.
🔮 BP will partner with two oil firms with close links to the Trump administration to develop the second phase of the Loran gasfield, in one of the first large-scale foreign investments in Venezuela since the US ousted its leader Nicolás Maduro in January.
Also by Jillian Ambrose Energy correspondent
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 10 articles by Jillian Ambrose Energy correspondent →

Topics

European French Russia Shell TotalEnergies

Subjects

Shell ORG · 5× TotalEnergies ORG · 2× European NORP · 1× French NORP · 1× Iran GPE · 1× London GPE · 1× Patrick Pouyanné PERSON · 1× Russia GPE · 1×

Narrative

The Middle East crisis helped Europe’s biggest oil and gas company to a profit of almost $10bn (£7.5bn) for the second quarter of 2026, more than double the figure for the same period last year and its second highest quarterly earnings on record.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-07
🔮 Shell’s refineries are expected to make almost double the profit from every barrel of fuel produced owing to record prices caused by shortages around the world.

Claims (18 extracted, 0 hedged)

Shell’s refineries are expected to make almost double the profit from every barrel of fuel produced owing to record prices caused by shortages around the world. asserted
refineries → expect → world
In a market trading update on Wednesday, the energy supermajor forecast profit margins of $42 a barrel in the July to September period, far above the $24 a barrel of the second quarter and the previous high of about $28 in mid-2022. asserted
supermajor → forecast → mid-2022
The margins reflect the steep increase in the price of refined fuels, including diesel, relative to the cost of crude oil, as the shutdown of war-damaged refineries in the Middle East and Russia squeezes supplies. asserted
shutdown → reflect → supplies
The Middle East crisis helped Europe’s biggest oil and gas company to a profit of almost $10bn (£7.5bn) for the second quarter of 2026, more than double the figure for the same period last year and its second highest quarterly earnings on record. asserted
crisis → help → record
The market value of Shell, now the second largest company on the UK’s FTSE 100 index, climbed to a record high of £36.23 a share at the end of last month. asserted
value → climb → month
That share price was reached despite oil prices retreating from their 2026 peak of above $115 a barrel in spring to about $100. asserted
prices → reach → 100
It was lifted by European gas prices, which doubled from the previous year over the summer, and record high diesel prices. asserted
which → lift → summer
Brent crude averaged $85.60 a barrel, compared with $97.05 in the second quarter, but still well above the $68.14 recorded in the third quarter last year. asserted
crude → average → quarter
The diesel price premium over the global oil benchmark jumped above $100 a barrel for the first time, indicating record high profits from refining crude into fuels. asserted
premium → jump → fuels
Shell operates some of Europe’s largest refineries alongside the French energy company TotalEnergies, which has the continent’s largest refining capacity. asserted
which → operate → capacity
TotalEnergies’ chief executive, Patrick Pouyanné, welcomed the opportunities created by the global energy crisis. asserted
executive → welcome → crisis
He told an industry conference in London this week: “We’re doing really well by being integrated. asserted
We → tell → London
Integration means your refineries in Europe, which you thought were liabilities, are suddenly becoming goldmines.” asserted
you → mean → Europe
Europe’s benchmark gas price index more than doubled to €70.50 (£60) in August. asserted
index → double → August
The price of gas reached an average of more than €48 a megawatt-hour in the second quarter before leaping to almost €64/MWh in the third quarter. asserted
price → reach → quarter
Shell’s gas production has been hard-hit by the Iran crisis, which led to severe damage to one of its key gas processing facilities in the Gulf, cutting its prewar gas production of 900,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOED) by a third. asserted
which → hit → third
Shell said on Wednesday that it expects gas production to climb to about 740,000 to 780,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up sharply from its previous forecast of 570,000 to 630,000 BOED for the quarter. asserted
production → say → quarter
It produced about 631,000 BOED in the second quarter. asserted
It → produce → quarter
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