On the morning of October 6, drones hit two commercial ships off Bulgaria's Black Sea coast, sinking one of the ships and causing alarm and outrage in both Bulgaria and the EU.
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drones → hit → Bulgaria
The drone attacks come at a time when the EU is pushing for Bulgaria to become a key entry point for goods imported from Asia to the bloc via the trade route known as the Middle Corridor.
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Bulgaria → come → Corridor
The Middle Corridor — which the EU also refers to as the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor — connects Europe and Asia.
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EU → refer → Europe
It begins in China and runs through Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey before reaching the EU.
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It → begin → EU
Although it is mostly made up of railways and roads, short sections of the corridor cross the Black Sea and Caspian Sea.
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sections → make → Sea
The EU has this year declared its intention to bet big on this trade route, a move that could have consequences for Bulgaria's railways, roads and ports.
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that → declare → railways
Lines of trucks can frequently be seen queuing at the checkpoint.
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Lines → see → checkpoint
The country also has two strategic ports on the Black Sea — Varna and Burgas — and a new section of a railway line between Istanbul and the Bulgarian border is set to open this fall.
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section → have → Istanbul
In September, EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos called Bulgaria "Europe's Connectivity Gateway" due to its strategic location on this route.
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Kos → call → route
Wars have disrupted global trade routes
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Wars → disrupt → routes
A few months earlier, Kos said that the Middle Corridor could considerably cut transport times from Asia to Europe from 45 days to just 15 days and is safer than the two traditional routes for goods being transported to Europe from Asia.
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Corridor → say → Asia
Trade along this route dropped sharply after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
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Trade → drop → February
The other route, sometimes referred to as the Ocean Route, sees goods traveling by ship through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.
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goods → refer → Sea
But fears of disruption caused by wars and instability in the Middle East mean that many goods are now being shipped all the way around Africa — a journey that takes around 45 days.
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that → cause → days
That results in delays and costs for businesses and consumers alike.
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That → result → businesses
All of this explains why the Middle Corridor suddenly seems so attractive — a fact confirmed by Vessela Tcherneva, deputy director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, who is based in Sofia, Bulgaria.
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who → explain → Sofia
"The Middle Corridor is a project that basically avoids both war theaters that we have near Europe," Tcherneva told DW.
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Tcherneva → avoid → DW
"It avoids the route through Russia, and also it avoids the route through the Middle East.
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it → avoid → East
As promising as it sounds, a lot needs to change before the Middle Corridor can really compete with the Ocean Route.
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Corridor → sound → Route
"You have, first and foremost, security limitations," said Tcherneva.
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Tcherneva → have → limitations
"The security situation in Central Asia needs to really have improved enough so that one can make long-term plans for constructing big projects."
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one → need → projects
Tcherneva also stressed that weak institutions and bureaucracies in countries along the Middle Corridor are an issue.
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institutions → stress → Corridor
Russian involvement cannot be ruled out.
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involvement → rule → ?
"We have seen infrastructure projects in the past not happen because they were not perceived as being in Russia's interest, and the Russians seem to have quite a bit of leverage in the countries along the route," she said, adding that "the outcome of Russia's war in Ukraine is going to have an impact on the success or failure of the Middle Corridor."
Tuesday's drone attacks on commercial ships in the Black Sea are a stark reminder that security on the route could well remain a problem.
In addition, the water level in the Caspian Sea, which is situated on the Middle Corridor, is falling, with climate change as a key driver.
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which → see → driver
This means there is no guarantee that ships will be able to cross it in the future.
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ships → mean → future
Then there is the problem of infrastructure: Ports and railways along the route lack capacity for big increases in trade volumes.
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Ports → be → volumes
Could Bulgaria benefit?
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Bulgaria → benefit → ?
Despite these risks and limitations, the EU clearly wants to see more trade coming through the Middle Corridor, even if it cannot replace existing routes.
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it → want → routes
In her recent State of the Union speech, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the EU wants to improve what it calls "connectivity."
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it → say → what
It wants to diversify trade routes, increase trade flows and reduce freight transit times.
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It → want → times
To do so, it aims to raise €12 billion ($13.5 billion) in public and private investment.
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it → do → investment
Bulgaria could benefit from this in a number of ways.
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Bulgaria → benefit → ways
"The Bulgarian railways have been underinvested in for many, many years now — for decades.
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railways → underinveste → decades
Bulgarian ports would also benefit greatly from investment," Vessela Tcherneva told DW.
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Tcherneva → benefit → DW
"Developing better road connections from the Mediterranean up, but also east-west, would help, especially the north of the country, which is currently not very well connected.
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which → develop → country
The Aporia
