On Feb. 29, 2008, Democratic presidential contender Hillary Clinton first aired her famous “3 a.m.” campaign ad.
asserted
Clinton → air → ad
Her Senate colleague Barack Obama had breakout momentum, which Clinton desperately wanted to break.
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Clinton → have → which
Obama had served on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee but missed nearly half of its votes.
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Obama → serve → votes
Clinton’s gambit didn’t work, of course, but her ad remains a memorable one.
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ad → work → course
Today, Democrats build their campaign on rage against both President Donald Trump and Israel.
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Democrats → build → Trump
That is politically effective, but it places polemic over policy.
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it → place → policy
If the Democrats plan to assume the responsibility of rule and resume a world in which the United States manages crises, they must demonstrate leadership.
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they → plan → leadership
Ukraine, Iran, China, and Cuba represent crises about which every candidate should have detailed positions and nuanced plans.
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candidate → represent → positions
What happens if Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons or if Iran and its proxies continue to impede freedom of navigation?
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Iran → happen → navigation
How far will the U.S. go to defend Taiwan against a blockade or an invasion?
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U.S. → go → blockade
If Cuba collapses, will the U.S. intervene?
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U.S. → collapse → ?
Increasingly, though, it looks as though the 3 a.m. phone call for a new administration could be Ethiopia.
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call → look → administration
War has resumed across northern Ethiopia.
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War → resume → Ethiopia
Eritrean troops are already inside Ethiopia, fighting against the central government.
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troops → fight → government
Somalia, Sudan, and Egypt appear poised to turn the new war into a regional one.
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Somalia → poise → one
The Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees consistently has the best insight into looming crises, especially as Western embassies hunker down.
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embassies → have → crises
Ethiopia already shelters over 1 million refugees and asylum-seekers from Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, and Eritrea, even before factoring in internal displacement.
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Ethiopia → shelter → displacement
Conflicts in the north and localized tension elsewhere have forced millions more from their homes.
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Conflicts → localize → homes
According to UNHCR, 60% of the refugees are children; armed groups in Tigray are recruiting underage refugees.
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groups → accord → refugees
As U.S. cutbacks hit — the U.S. gives no direct funds to support UNHCR programs in Ethiopia — Sudanese and South Sudanese militias are also seeking to recruit the newly displaced.
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militias → hit → displaced
UNHCR-Ethiopia has reduced its operational footprint to 10 offices in a country 60% larger than Texas.
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Ethiopia → reduce → Texas
It anticipates further reductions in the coming year.
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It → anticipate → year
Broader warfare in the Horn of Africa could bring famine and displace millions of people along the Red Sea littoral just as the Houthis destabilize the Bab el Mandeb trade artery.
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Houthis → bring → artery
As the nightmare situation becomes reality, it gets worse.
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it → become → ?
Open war between Egypt and Ethiopia could lead to Egypt’s collapse and bring instability to the shores of the Mediterranean Sea.
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war → lead → Sea
Refugee flows will jumpstart terrorism and cartel recruitment across the Middle East and eventually Europe.
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flows → jumpstart → East
Piracy will flourish in the Red Sea, and the cost of shipping will skyrocket, making current food inflation seem quaint.
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inflation → flourish → shipping
Isolationism might be in vogue in some Washington corners, but ignoring Africa and defunding refugee programs can raise the costs.
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ignoring → ignore → costs
Polemics might fuel politics, but they do not create leaders.
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they → fuel → leaders
It is time for serious Republicans and Democrats to discuss the day after, and how to forestall or mitigate a conflict that could make Ukraine appear a walk in the park.
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Ukraine → discuss → park
Keeping refugees in place would be a good place to start.
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Keeping → keep → place
The Aporia
